It took 125 picks before Dmytro Timashov came off the board at the 2015 Entry Draft and I’d bet 29 other teams wouldn’t mind a do-over. After another tantalizing season in the QMJHL and an eye-opening performance at the World Juniors, Timashov’s stock has risen exponentially over the past year, jumping from #18 in last year’s rankings, to #5 at midterm, and #8 here (we had to make some room for new prospects). Again, 124 other players were taken ahead of him making Timashov look like a steal one year later.
|Jeff||Ryan H.||Shawn||Ryan F.||Adam||Dom||Jess||Katy||Readers|
|LW/RW||Krovograd, UKR||5’10||187||L||Quebec/Shawinigan (QMJHL)||2015 Draft (5-125)|
|2011-12||15||SDE HF J18||J18 Elit||17||10||13||23||17.75||37||12|
|15||Djurgårdens IF U16||U16 SM||7||7||8||15||N/A||4||13|
|15||Djurgårdens IF J18||J18 Allsvenskan||17||2||4||6||4.63||4||0|
|15||Sweden U16 (all)||International-Jr||6||3||1||4||N/A||2||3|
|2012-13||16||Djurgårdens IF J18||J18 Elit||11||4||5||9||10.73||8||6|
|16||MODO Hockey J18||J18 Allsvenskan||2||2||1||3||19.68||0||2|
|2013-14||17||MODO Hockey J18||J18 Allsvenskan||0||0||0||0||0||0||0|
|17||MODO Hockey J20||SuperElit||40||12||29||41||16.81||18||9|
|17||Mora IK / IF Björklöven||Allsvenskan||10||0||1||1||6.56||27||-2|
|17||Sweden U18 (all)||International-Jr||8||2||5||7||N/A||2||-1|
A 90 point season in his draft year, followed up by a 100 point pace (adjusted to 66 games) in his post-draft season. Those are some eye-popping totals, even if he’s from the QMJHL. A point-per-game at the World Juniors ain’t bad either. If there’s one concern it’s what happened to his play after being traded from the Remparts to the Cataractes.
|pGPSn||pGPSs||pGPS%||pGPS PPG||pGPS PP82||pGPSr|
|31 (11/18)||6 (15/18)||19.4% (15/18)||0.61 (6/18)||49.69 (6/18)||11.73 (13/18)|
- pGPSn: The number of matches between the subject and the player-seasons (one season by a single player, i.e, John Tavares 2008 OHL) in the historical sample.
- pGPSs: The number of statistical matches that became NHL regulars. This is determined by playing 200 NHL games.
- pGPS%: Simply s divided by n, this is the percentage of statistical matches that successfully became NHL players.
- pGPS PPG: The NHL points per game of successful matches.
- pGPS P82: The same as pGPS PPG, but stretched over 82 games.
- pGPSr: A bit of a hybrid number, this pGPS Rating combines the percentage and points per game to produce a number that includes both likelihood of success and potential upside.
Based on the success of his historical comparables, Timashov is projected to become a second line forward.
To learn more about the Prospect Graduation Probabilities System, check out this post.
The Eye Test
Timashov is exactly the type of guy you take a chance on with your later round picks and it’ll likely play big dividends if he pans out. He’s explosively fast like he’s got rocket skates, and he’s creative with the puck. Both skills are great for creating space for other players around him. Speed is the biggest part of his game which bodes well for the new NHL that is built upon it. Timashov is undersized at 5’10” which might be a reason he was available so late in the draft. Like most smaller players, there are issues in his defensive game, but that’s nothing The Best Coach In The World (TM) can’t fix.
As Seen On TV
Anytime a player scores a goal with four opponents just watching instead of playing defence, you know it’s a good goal. The assists (in the same game!) is pretty slick too.
Timashov turns 20 on October 1 making him AHL eligible and with the likely loss of William Nylander to the big club, the injection of skill will be sorely needed. That’s not saying they’re on the same level, obviously, but the Marlies are losing an offensive dynamo and Timashov’s style and raw talent fit right up that alley. He’s dominated major-junior already, but the AHL is a different animal and he’ll have to show he can translate his game to the next level. Next season will be a big year for his development and it’ll be interesting to see how he progresses.
He’ll have to prove he can dominate against bigger and tougher competition, but what he’s shown so far has been very impressive. His draft+2 season will be a huge statement towards whether he makes it to the NHL or not as it’ll be his first taste playing against men (aside from a three-game stint for MODO) as opposed to teenagers. Timashov is crazy fast and exciting to watch, and it’ll be exciting to watch his progression this season.
The Rankings So Far
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #9 Travis Dermott
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #10 Nikita Soshnikov
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #11 Jeremy Bracco
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #12 Brendan Leipsic
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #13 Zach Hyman
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #14 Carl Grundstrom
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #15 Andrew Nielsen
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #16 Tobias Lindberg
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #17 Yegor Korshkov
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #18 Adam Brooks
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #19 Kasimir Kaskisuo
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #20 Garret Sparks
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: 10 players who received no votes from us
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: Honourable Mentions