TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #8 Dmytro Timashov

TLN8

It took 125 picks before Dmytro Timashov came off the board at the 2015 Entry Draft and I’d bet 29 other teams wouldn’t mind a do-over. After another tantalizing season in the QMJHL and an eye-opening performance at the World Juniors, Timashov’s stock has risen exponentially over the past year, jumping from #18 in last year’s rankings, to #5 at midterm, and #8 here (we had to make some room for new prospects). Again, 124 other players were taken ahead of him making Timashov look like a steal one year later. 

The Votes

Jeff Ryan H. Shawn Ryan F. Adam Dom Jess Katy Readers
10 10 20 5 4 6 11 16 8

Timashov was ranked #18 in our 2015 summer rankings and #5 in our winter Midterms.

Player Bio

Position Hometown Height Weight Hand 2015 Team Acquired
LW/RW Krovograd, UKR 5’10 187 L Quebec/Shawinigan (QMJHL) 2015 Draft (5-125)

The Stats

 SEASON Age TEAM LEAGUE GP G A TP NHLe PIM +/-
 2011-12 15  SDE HF J18  J18 Elit 17 10 13 23 17.75 37 12
  15  Djurgårdens IF U16  U16 SM 7 7 8 15 N/A 4 13
  15  Djurgårdens IF J18  J18 Allsvenskan 17 2 4 6 4.63 4 0
  15  Sweden U16 (all)  International-Jr 6 3 1 4 N/A 2 3
 2012-13 16  Djurgårdens IF J18  J18 Elit 11 4 5 9 10.73 8 6
  16  Djurgårdens/MODO J20  SuperElit 38 9 13 10 9.49 12 1
  16  MODO Hockey J18  J18 Allsvenskan 2 2 1 3 19.68 0 2
  16  Sweden U17  WHC-17 6 0 3 3 N/A 4 N/A
 2013-14 17  MODO Hockey J18  J18 Allsvenskan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
  17  MODO Hockey J20  SuperElit 40 12 29 41 16.81 18 9
  17  MODO Hockey  SHL 3 0 1 1 16.4 0 -1
  17  Mora IK /  IF Björklöven  Allsvenskan 10 0 1 1 6.56 27 -2
  17  Sweden U18 (all)  International-Jr 8 2 5 7 N/A 2 -1
 2014-15 18  Québec Remparts  QMJHL 66 19 71 90 29.07 54 17
 2015-16 19  Québec/Shawinigan  QMJHL 57 22 63 85 31.79 79 27
  19  Sweden U20  WJC-20 7 2 5 7 45.1 2 4

A 90 point season in his draft year, followed up by a 100 point pace (adjusted to 66 games) in his post-draft season. Those are some eye-popping totals, even if he’s from the QMJHL. A point-per-game at the World Juniors ain’t bad either. If there’s one concern it’s what happened to his play after being traded from the Remparts to the Cataractes.

Projection Stats

pGPSn pGPSs pGPS% pGPS PPG pGPS PP82 pGPSr
31 (11/18) 6 (15/18) 19.4% (15/18) 0.61 (6/18) 49.69 (6/18) 11.73 (13/18)
  • pGPSn: The number of matches between the subject and the player-seasons (one season by a single player, i.e, John Tavares 2008 OHL) in the historical sample.
  • pGPSs: The number of statistical matches that became NHL regulars. This is determined by playing 200 NHL games.
  • pGPS%: Simply s divided by n, this is the percentage of statistical matches that successfully became NHL players.
  • pGPS PPG: The NHL points per game of successful matches.
  • pGPS P82: The same as pGPS PPG, but stretched over 82 games.
  • pGPSr: A bit of a hybrid number, this pGPS Rating combines the percentage and points per game to produce a number that includes both likelihood of success and potential upside.

Based on the success of his historical comparables, Timashov is projected to become a second line forward.

To learn more about the Prospect Graduation Probabilities System, check out this post.

The Eye Test

Timashov is exactly the type of guy you take a chance on with your later round picks and it’ll likely play big dividends if he pans out. He’s explosively fast like he’s got rocket skates, and he’s creative with the puck. Both skills are great for creating space for other players around him. Speed is the biggest part of his game which bodes well for the new NHL that is built upon it. Timashov is undersized at 5’10” which might be a reason he was available so late in the draft. Like most smaller players, there are issues in his defensive game, but that’s nothing The Best Coach In The World (TM) can’t fix.

As Seen On TV

Anytime a player scores a goal with four opponents just watching instead of playing defence, you know it’s a good goal. The assists (in the same game!) is pretty slick too.

Next Season

Timashov turns 20 on October 1 making him AHL eligible and with the likely loss of William Nylander to the big club, the injection of skill will be sorely needed. That’s not saying they’re on the same level, obviously, but the Marlies are losing an offensive dynamo and Timashov’s style and raw talent fit right up that alley. He’s dominated major-junior already, but the AHL is a different animal and he’ll have to show he can translate his game to the next level. Next season will be a big year for his development and it’ll be interesting to see how he progresses. 

Closing Thoughts

He’ll have to prove he can dominate against bigger and tougher competition, but what he’s shown so far has been very impressive. His draft+2 season will be a huge statement towards whether he makes it to the NHL or not as it’ll be his first taste playing against men (aside from a three-game stint for MODO) as opposed to teenagers. Timashov is crazy fast and exciting to watch, and it’ll be exciting to watch his progression this season.

The Rankings So Far

  • magesticRAGE

    Timashov is one of my favorite Leaf prospects.

    He is short, 5’10, but muscular at 192 lbs so his size should not be a problem.

    In his draft year the only guy in the QMHL with more assists was Nick Ehlers who was a year older and had already be drafted the year before by the Winnipeg Jets in the first round (9th overall.) Ehlers has made a quick transition to the NHL with 38 points last year so expect similar things from Timashov. He is that level of prospect. It’s almost like scouts for got to check his weight and only looked at his height and assumed he was scrawny. Purely his numbers, I think Timashov should have gone late in the first round.

    Watching Timashov in the AHL should be a treat this year. He could be a top 10 scorer in his first AHL year.

    Expect Timashov to challenge for spot on the Leafs in 2017-18 or the next year.

    It’s like we drafted a slightly larger version of Mats Zucarello. We will probably giggle for years that we drafted Timashov in the 5th round. Big win for the Leafs

  • SEER

    Very under-rated player, by most…

    I see this kid being ready a half-season earlier than most expect..

    Dmytro Timashov
    Left Wing — shoots L
    Born Oct 1 1996 — Kirovograd, Ukraine
    19 yrs. ago
    Height 5.10 — Weight 192

    RECENT STATS: (*up to Jan. 19th 2016)

    2015-16 Shawinigan Cataractes – QMJHL
    4 Games… 1 Goal… 7 Assists…8 Points… +2 “2PPG+
    —————
    2015-16 Quebec Remparts – QMJHL
    29 Games… 18 Goal… 35 Assists…53 Points… +9 *PPG+
    ————-
    2015-16 Team Sweden – WJC U-20
    7 Games… 2 Goals… 5 Assists… 7 Points… +4 *PPG
    ————-
    2015-16 Team Sweden – International Junior
    7 Games… 1 Goal… 6 Assists… 7 Points… -2 *PPG

    Ice Burning: Dmytro Timashov 2015-16 Highlights – TML

    —> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enj5J-ygwq4

  • Gary Empey

    5’10” and 192 is solid, with a low centre of gravity, not top mention this kid’s incredible speed. I foresee him as a Leafs top-6 stalwart within two seasons.

  • magesticRAGE

    Thanks Tommy Bergmann, we all owe you again!
    Believe it not, a year ago, I heard reports on his lack of speed being an issue, lol. He’s not as fast as Kappy or Willie Nye, but he’s fast and time travel quick. He has elite all round skating, and like Nylander and Johnson, thinks the game at a very high level. He is best when playing with like minded, cerebral players.

  • magesticRAGE

    Thanks Tommy Bergmann, we all owe you again!
    Believe it not, a year ago, I heard reports on his lack of speed being an issue, lol. He’s not as fast as Kappy or Willie Nye, but he’s fast and time travel quick. He has elite all round skating, and like Nylander and Johnson, thinks the game at a very high level. He is best when playing with like minded, cerebral players.

  • SEER

    Any word on the status of Andreas Johnson? He was concussed in the playoffs but very little news on his current health status since. Last I read was months ago about how he could not fly yet and stayed in a darkened room in a hotel in dwntn TO.

  • magesticRAGE

    Alright Adam, I’m gonna need some clarification on your ranking of him. 4th!!! I mean, I like the kid too, but there is no way he’s ahead of guys like Johnson, Kapanen, or Zaitsev!