Photo Credit: Nick Turchiaro / USA Today Sports Images

Avalanche at Maple Leafs 12/04/19 – Odds and NHL Betting Trends

by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post

It might be best to fade the Toronto Maple Leafs, who have their backup goalie in line to start in a matchup that has tended to be higher-scoring.

The Maple Leafs are the -150 home favourite while the Colorado Avalanche are the +130 away underdog with a 6.0-goal total on the NHL odds for Wednesday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Toronto is coming off a 6-1 defeat against the Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday and has a 2-10 record in its last 12 games when it played the previous day, with the total finishing OVER in six of the nine most recent games in that sample. Colorado is 5-8 in its last 13 away games against the Eastern Conference, with the total finishing OVER 11 times.

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The total has also gone OVER at betting sites in eight of the last 10 games in this matchup.

Avalanche at Maple Leafs | OddsShark Matchup Report

The Avalanche are 16-8-2 and their plus-22 goal differential is third-best in the 31-team NHL. Since losing 5-3 at home against Toronto on November 23, the Avalanche have welcomed right wing Mikko Rantanen back from injury to join an offence led by star center Nathan MacKinnon. Colorado is 19th in the NHL in five-on-five shot-attempt percentage (49.25 percent), but they are first in goals scored (3.73 per game) while ranking 13th in goals against (2.88). On special teams, the Avalanche power play ranks 12th (19.4 percent), but their penalty killing ranks 20th (78.4).

Colorado’s primary goalie, Philipp Grubauer, was taken out in that November 23 game after allowing four goals on 15 shots, but it is worth noting he had returned from a lower-body injury only a few days earlier. Grubauer is 9-5-2 with a 2.86 goals-against average and .911 save percentage.

The Maple Leafs are 13-12-4 this season and are also 3-5 in their last eight games as a favourite of -140 to -180 on the moneyline. Toronto, with an offence led by John Tavares and Auston Matthews, ranks well above Colorado in five-on-five shot-attempt percentage (53.42 percent, fourth in the league). Translating that into production has been easier said than done as they are 10th in goals scored (3.21 per game) but 26th in goals against (3.31). The Maple Leafs have a 13th-place power play (19.3 percent) and 26th-place penalty killing unit (75.8).

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As noted, backup goalie Michael Hutchinson, who is 0-5-1 with a 4.55 goals-against average and .876 save percentage, is in line to start for Toronto.

The Maple Leafs host the St. Louis Blues on Saturday before embarking on a three-game western Canada road trip.

Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for analysis on this week’s top games. As well, the OddsShark Computer serves up daily NHL picks for bettors.

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