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Photo Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

Oilers vs Maple Leafs 03/27/21 – Odds and NHL Betting Trends

by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post

The Toronto Maple Leafs have regained some betting value and are showing hints of a breakout as they try to maintain their mastery of the Edmonton Oilers, who have had a long layoff. The Maple Leafs are -155 favourites and the Oilers are +135 underdogs with a 6.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Saturday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

Toronto is 6-3 in its last nine games as a favourite at sports betting sites against Edmonton, with the OVER hitting five times. The Maple Leafs are 7-4 in their last 11 home games as a favourite of -140 to -170 on the moneyline, with the total finishing UNDER seven times. The Oilers are 7-5 in their last 12 games as an away underdog. Taking a longer view, they have only won in only two of their last 10 visits to Scotiabank Arena since the 2011-12 season.

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Oilers vs Maple Leafs | OddsShark Matchup Report

The Maple Leafs lead the season series 5-1-1 with a 15-6 edge in five-on-five goals. The run of play has been more even, though, with the Oilers earning the edge in expected-goals percentage, or xGF% (53.7) and high-danger chances share (56.5), per Natural Stat Trick. Scoring chances have been virtually even (50.1 for the Maple Leafs). Edmonton is four-for-18 on the power play and Toronto is nine-for-20. (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)

The Oilers, who are 21-13-0, have had a six-day hiatus due to positive COVID19 tests within the Montreal Canadiens, their last scheduled opponent. Before the postponement, they reunited stars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the first line with right wing Jesse Puljujarvi. It is a guessing game as to how the time off might affect Edmonton’s capability to get the strong start it likely needs against North Division-leading Toronto. The Oilers are just 18th in the 31-team NHL over the last month at limiting high-danger chances, so offense might be their best defense.

In the last 30 days, Edmonton is 11th in xGF% (52.2), 10th in scoring-chance share (52.2) and 10th in high-danger chances share (52.1). Over this stretch, the Oilers are 10th in goal scoring (3.08 per game) and eighth in goals against (2.46). Their power play ranks sixth (28.6 percent), but their penalty killing ranks 25th (73.5).

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Veteran goalie Mike Smith has an 11-3-0 record, 2.34 goals-against average and .922 save percentage. Smith is sixth in the NHL in save percentage above expected, according to MoneyPuck.

The Maple Leafs, who are 21-10-2, played teams that were on the second night of a back-to-back in their last two games, when they had their first consecutive games in three weeks with a higher goals-for percentage than xGF%. Their last such streak was during a three-game road sweep of Edmonton that ended on March 1. All four forward lines had strong advanced stats during a 3-2 overtime road win against the Ottawa Senators on Thursday. The Auston Matthews-Wayne Simmonds-Mitch Marner and John Tavares-Alex Galchenyuk-William Nylander lines were both shut out in the five-on-five phase, so they could be overdue for a reward. Matthews, Tavares and right wing Zach Hyman were 1-2-3 in expected goals on Thursday, according to MoneyPuck.

Since Feb. 25, Toronto is second in both xGF% (56.8) and scoring-chance share (58.9) as well as fifth in high-danger chances share (55.6). The Maple Leafs are 12th in goal scoring (3.00 per game) and 11th in goals against (2.50). Their power play ranks 22nd (16.7 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 29th (70.4).

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Jack Campbell is 5-0-0 with a 1.18 GAA and .958 save percentage, albeit in just five games this season. Campbell earned a shutout in his last start against Edmonton.

Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for analysis on this week’s top games. As well, the OddsShark Computer serves up daily NHL picks for bettors.