by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post
Auston Matthews quite possibly having his shot back is one sign the Toronto Maple Leafs can keep the upper hand on the Edmonton Oilers. The Maple Leafs are -155 favourites and the Oilers are +135 underdogs with a 6.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Monday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
The Maple Leafs are 8-4 in their last 12 home games as a -140 to -175 favourite, with the total going UNDER seven times at betting sites. The Oilers are 8-5 in their last 13 away games as a +120 to +150 underdog, with the total going UNDER six times with two pushes. However, the Maple Leafs are 8-2 in their last 10 games against the Oilers when they are favoured by -140 or farther into minus money, with the OVER hitting six times.
Oilers vs Maple Leafs | OddsShark Matchup Report
Toronto is up 6-1-1 in the season series with a 18-9 edge in five-on-five goals after a 4-3 overtime win against the Oilers last Saturday. The Maple Leafs had their best expected-goals percentage this season against Edmonton, with a 64.0 xGF%, but needed three unanswered goals to win. Head to head, the Oilers rate the edge in xGF% (52.1) and high-danger chances share (54.3), per Natural Stat Trick. Toronto has earned a slight edge in scoring chances (51.6). Edmonton is four-for-19 on the power play and Toronto is nine-for-22. (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)
The Oilers, who are 21-13-1, settled for a single point for the overtime loss after a game where the star power of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who combined for five points, was nearly enough to win. Having the Draisaitl-McDavid-Jesse Puljujarvi line together gives the Oilers the natural offense to hang in with Toronto, but it can mean punting on having the complementary scoring for their forwards, as the Oilers have come to count on defensemen such as Darnell Nurse and Tyson Barrie to chip in goals. Edmonton has fared well at staying focused on the road, as it is 7-3 in away games after one day of rest.
Edmonton ranks 11th in the 31-team NHL in xGF% (52.1) and 10th in both scoring-chances share (51.8) and in high-danger chances share (51.6) over the last 30 days. In this span, the Oilers are tied for 10th in goal scoring (3.08 per game) and 17th in goals against (2.77). Their power play is eighth (25.8 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 27th (71.9).
Veteran goalie Mike Smith has an 11-3-1 record, 2.44 goals-against average and .918 save percentage. Smith, per MoneyPuck, saved 0.98 goals below expected last Saturday.
The Maple Leafs, who are 22-10-2, have had an xGF% in the 60 percent range or better for four games in a row. The aforementioned Matthews, who had a hand/wrist injury a month ago, broke a five-game goalless drought by scoring the overtime goal last Saturday after pinging the crossbar during regulation time. Toronto’s comeback also involved the John Tavares-Alex Galchenyuk-William Nylander second line scoring two third-period goals to force the game into overtime. Toronto’s 8-3-1 record in its last 12 home games with one day of rest might pair well with its recent strong five-on-five play, although goaltending and special teams are concerns.
Since Feb. 27, Toronto ranks second in both xGF% (57.1) and in scoring-chances share (59.1) as well as fourth in high-danger chances share (56.4). Over this stretch, the Maple Leafs are tied for 10th in goal scoring (3.08 per game) and 10th in goals against (2.54), while their power play ranks 22nd (15.6 percent) and their penalty killing is 29th (71.4).
Jack Campbell is 6-0-0 with a 1.48 GAA and .945 save percentage, but had a tough night last Saturday with 1.53 goals saved below expected.