by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post
The Toronto Maple Leafs should get a leg up from catching a season-long nemesis on the second night of a back-to-back. The Maple Leafs are -175 favourites and the Winnipeg Jets are +145 underdogs with a 6.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Thursday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
Toronto is 5-5 over its last 10 home games against Winnipeg, and neither team has won two in a row, with the Jets earning a 5-2 win in their last Scotiabank Arena showdown on March 13. Four of the last five Jets-Maple Leafs matchups in Toronto have finished OVER at online sports betting sites. However, the Jets, who edged the Ottawa Senators 3-2 on Wednesday, are 3-9 in their last 12 games when they played the previous day, with the OVER hitting seven times.
Jets vs Maple Leafs | OddsShark Matchup Report
The Maple Leafs are 6-1 in their last seven home games as a -170 to -200 favourite, with the total going UNDER five times. The Jets are 3-7 in their last 10 away games as +135 to +160 underdog, with the UNDER hitting five times with one push.
The Maple Leafs are up 4-2 in the season series. The Jets hold the 9-8 edge in goals during the five-on-five phase, but the Maple Leafs boast wide edges in expected-goals percentage, or xGF% (61.5), scoring-chances share (59.7) and high-danger chances share (65.9), per Natural Stat Trick. The Jets are four-for-18 on the power play and the Maple Leafs are two-for-15. (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)
The Jets, who are 26-14-3 and only five points behind North Division-leading Toronto, put their lines in a blender midgame in Ottawa, when the Paul Stastny-Pierre-Luc Dubois-Nikolaj Ehlers second line (listed center-left-right) had a more proficient showing than the Mark Scheifele-Kyle Connor-Andrew Copp line. The Jets, who are 3-6-0 in their last nine away games with no rest, won’t have much time to balance their offensive chemistry. On the plus side for Winnipeg, MoneyPuck also credited burly No. 3 center Adam Lowry, who has given Toronto fits at times, with a team-most 0.851 expected goals. Scheifele has just one goal this season against Toronto in spite of a team-most 19 shots on goal.
Since March 16, Winnipeg ranks 21st in the 31-team NHL in xGF% (47.9), 14th in scoring-chances share (51.2) and 19th in high-danger chances share (47.7). The Jets are seventh in goals per game (3.07) and second in goals against (2.13). Their power play ranks eighth (24.4 percent) and their penalty killing ranks fifth (86.1).
Connor Hellebuyck, who has a 20-11-3 record with a 2.50 goals-against average and .919 save percentage, is in line to start after Laurent Brossoit played in Ottawa on Wednesday. Hellebuyck is 1-2-2 with a 2.58 GAA and .914 save percentage in his last five starts against Toronto.
The Maple Leafs are 28-11-4 and were just under 50 percent in five-on-five xGF% during both of their losses earlier this week. They have had three sub-50% games in a row only once all season, which would seem to suggest they have a high ceiling to bounce back. Only one line – the John Tavares-Zach Hyman-Ilya Mikheyev second unit – was truly proficient during a 3-2 overtime loss against the Calgary Flames on Tuesday. The main men on the Auston Matthews-Alex Galchenyuk-Mitch Marner line should have something to prove, and Matthews has four goals in six games against the Jets.
Marner has a team-most eight points against the Jets, and his team-best 0.490 expected goals against Calgary might suggest he’s close to breaking a slump where he has only one goal in Toronto’s last 10 games against opponents other than Ottawa.
Toronto is second in xGF% (60.1) and in scoring-chances share (58.2), as well as first in high-danger chances share (65.1) over the past 30 days. During this span,The Maple Leafs are sixth in goals per game (3.08) and ninth in goals against (2.54). Their power play ranks 31st, or dead last (3.0 percent), and their penalty killing ranks 12th (81.5).
Jack Campbell, who is 11-1-0 with a 1.98 GAA and .930 save percentage, should be back in goal after David Rittich faced Calgary on Tuesday. Campbell is 3-2-1 with a 1.65 GAA and .949 save percentage in six career games against Winnipeg.