by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post
The remote chance of lightning striking twice as the Toronto Maple Leafs head into a moneyline mismatch could be a prompt to go with the chalk, or take cover in the totals trends. The Maple Leafs are -300 away favourites and the Vancouver Canucks are +250 home underdogs with a 6.0-goal total on the NHL odds for Tuesday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
Since the 2009-10 season, Toronto is 2-11 in its last 13 away games against Vancouver, with 11 matchups going UNDER at sports betting sites. The Maple Leafs are also 6-9 in their last 15 games as a moneyline favourite of -175 or deeper, with nine games staying UNDER. The Canucks are 7-5 in their last 12 games as a home underdog of +125 or more with eight games finishing UNDER.
Maple Leafs vs Canucks | OddsShark Matchup Report
Sunday, Toronto was a -400 favourite by game time, but the +320 home underdog Canucks won 3-2 in overtime in their first game in 25 days after a teamwide COVID-19 outbreak.
The Maple Leafs lead the season series 3-2-1, but have lost their last three games against the Canucks. Toronto has outscored Vancouver 17-8 in the five-on-five phase on the margin of edges in expected goals-for percentage, or xGF% (63.3), scoring-chance shares (61.4) and high-danger chances share (65.2), per Natural Stat Trick. The Maple Leafs are three-for-18 on the power play and the Canucks are six-for-15. (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)
The Maple Leafs, who are 28-12-5, have lost their last four games, but their 73.3 five-on-five xGF% against the Canucks on Sunday was their second-best all season. The Auston Matthews-Alex Galchenyuk-Mitch Marner line generated more offensive activity than they permitted, but ended up minus-2 in the five-on-five phase. Marner led the team’s non-scorers with four shots on goal. Toronto, which is 10-3-1 in away games with a single day of rest, will have some line changes, since wing Zach Hyman (leg/knee) is out for at least two weeks. Right wing William Nylander’s status is in question after he was late to a meeting on Monday.
Since March 6, Toronto is second across the board in xGF% (59.3), scoring-chances share (58.8) and high-danger chances share (61.6). The Maple Leafs, however, are 12th in goals per game (2.90) and 20th in goals against (3.05) in this span. Their power play (6.1 percent) and penalty killing (70.5) both rank 31st, or last in the entire NHL.
Backup goalie David Rittich, who is 4-7-2 with a 2.82 goals-against average and .905 save percentage, might get the start in order to save Jack Campbell for a first-place showdown against the Winnipeg Jets on Thursday. Rittich is 3-1-2 with a 2.18 GAA and .915 save percentage in seven career games against the Canucks.
The Canucks, who are 17-18-3, are 7-7-2 in home games after one day of rest this season. Vancouver was carried offensively on Sunday by the Bo Horvat-Nils Höglander-Tanner Pearson line, which not only accounted for all of their goals but was also their only line with an xGF% of over 50 percent. A repeat of Sunday’s upset will likely require more complementary scoring. Vancouver’s defensive depth might also suffer since Alex Edler is suspended for kneeing Hyman on Sunday.
Vancouver is 30th in xGF% (42.2), 31st in scoring-chances share (37.3) and 30th in high-danger chances share (42.7) over the past 45 days. During this span, the Canucks are 30th in goals per game (2.18) and 15th in goals against (2.73). Their power play ranks ninth (25.0) and their penalty killing ranks 30th (71.0).
Braden Holtby, who is 5-6-2 with a 3.44 GAA and .899 save percentage, stole the win for Vancouver on Sunday by saving 1.63 goals above expected, according to MoneyPuck. Holtby would likely start again if Thatcher Demko does not complete the COVID-19 protocol. Holtby is 1-2-0 with a 3.37 GAA and .888 save percentage this season against Toronto.