The Toronto Maple Leafs head into the 4 Nations Face-Off break with a record of 33-20-2, good for second in the Atlantic Division and three points behind the first-place Florida Panthers with a game in hand. On one hand, the Leafs are within striking distance of first place and can easily reclaim the top spot with consistently strong play in the second half, but on the other side of things, the Tampa Bay Lightning are only two points behind them with the same amount of games played. While they have all the opportunity to lock up that top spot and ensure both home-ice advantage and a weaker first-round opponent, they’re also at risk of losing home-ice advantage altogether if they let their play slip too much.

Here are three keys to locking up home-ice advantage once the NHL resumes following the 4 Nations Break.

This is something that can and should be upgraded at the trade deadline, but it’s something the Leafs will need to fix in-house too. This is one of the more top-heavy versions of an already top-heavy team, with the Leafs’ Core Four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares accounting for nearly 50% of the team’s points. Matthew Knies and Bobby McMann have both upped their goal-scoring with 21 and 17, respectively, but after that, it gets pretty bleak. Max Domi has struggled offensively, with only three goals and 20 points in 47 games, and Nick Robertson, who had a golden opportunity after butting heads with Sheldon Keefe due to a lack of ice time last season, hasn’t been able to find a consistent offensive touch under Craig Berube.

It’s been widely speculated that the Leafs are willing to search for ‘as high as a 2nd line centre’, with names like New York Islanders’ Brock Nelson, St. Louis Blues Brayden Schenn, and even Buffalo Sabres’ Dylan Cozens being floated as potential upgrades. Adding one of these players up front would drastically shape their lineup and give them the potential of three legitimate scoring lines, but one trade acquisition won’t be enough. They need more offence from their bottom six, and more offence from their blue line as well. Morgan Rielly has been under fire for his struggles on both sides of the puck this year, but to his credit, he’s got three points in his last three games and has looked more like the version that fans saw in the 2022-23 playoffs and for much of last season. If he can maintain his play for the rest of the season, it will go a long way in terms of generating offence for the Leafs.

The Leafs started the season with a terrible power play and a great penalty kill, but in recent weeks, the scripts have seemingly flipped. The result is a Leafs team with its special teams resting right in the middle of the pack. Their power play is 12th in the NHL at 23.2%, while the penalty kill has evened out to 79.9%, good for 13th in the league.

You don’t want to pin either of these as more important than the other, because the reality is that if you go into the postseason with a sputtering power play or penalty kill, regardless of which one it is, you’re going to struggle. It’s why the Leafs have seen early playoff exits so many times in the Matthews era. Despite excelling with the man advantage in the regular season in years past, they’ve always had a tendency to dry up when the ice gets smaller and the game gets tougher. It may sound a little contradictory considering how a strong regular season power play hasn’t translated to a strong playoff power play yet, but the Leafs won’t be doing themselves any favours if they head into the postseason trying to figure out how to get things to click ahead of Game 1.

The penalty kill is equally guilty of inconsistency at this point, but lots of it can be chalked up to the Leafs missing Anthony Stolarz for two months of the season. If their issues remain even with the return of their star goaltender, they’re going to be in tough to win one round let alone multiple. Again, this is something that can be addressed at the trade deadline on both fronts, but that doesn’t mean improvements can’t be made internally.

The Leafs started 2025 with a five-game winning streak, followed by three losses, followed by three wins, followed by three losses, followed by three wins, followed by a loss. Is there an echo in here?

Look, it’s great that the Leafs are one point out of first place in the Atlantic Division. It’s not great that they can’t seem to string together any meaningful streaks. They did hold first place in the Atlantic for a while, and though it’s not unrealistic to have expected the Panthers to work their way back into the mix, the fact of the matter is that they need to recognize what’s at stake here. A first-round matchup against a team like the Ottawa Senators, who currently occupy the second wildcard spot, with home-ice advantage is much more of an ideal situation for the Leafs to put themselves into than having to face the Lightning for a rematch, whether that’s with or without home-ice advantage.

The Leafs are never going to have a seamless regular season. No team ever does, perhaps with the exception of the 2022-23 Boston Bruins, but look how that ended for them. Expecting to fully eliminate any issues this team has will leave you disappointed, but it’s unrealistic to expect that at the same time. What is important is that they continue to keep the wins convincing and the losses few and far between, and with the trade deadline coming up, it’s that much more important to get the good habits in place before you upgrade.