Canadiens vs Maple Leafs 05/08/21 – Odds and NHL Betting Trends

It’s almost a nothing game for the Toronto Maple Leafs in the standings, so bettors will have to decide whether the strong trends apply. The Maple Leafs are -220 favourites and the Montreal Canadiens are +180 underdogs with a 6.0-goal total on the NHL odds for Saturday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com (how the moneyline works).

Toronto has gone deeper than -200 at home against Montreal only four previous times in the NHL’s salary cap era and has won all four games. Toronto is 8-2 in its last 10 games as a home favourite against Montreal, and four of the last six such matchups have finished OVER. 

The Maple Leafs are 13-7 in their last 20 home games as a -200 to -250 favourite, with the OVER hitting 13 times. The Canadiens are 3-16 in their last 19 away games as a +160 to +200 underdog, with the total finishing UNDER 13 times. This season, Montreal is a 3-6 as a road underdog with the OVER hitting five times at sports betting sites.

Toronto leads the season series 6-2-1 with a 21-15 edge in five-on-five goals. The Maple Leafs, per Natural Stat Trick, have increased their edges against the Canadiens in expected goals-for percentage, or xGF% (53.2), scoring-chances share (51.6) and high-danger chances share (55.3) over the course of the season series. The Canadiens are four-for-19 on the power play and the Maple Leafs are six-for-25. (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.) .

The Canadiens, who are 24-20-9, will be tweaking their forward lines since No. 1 center Phillip Danault (upper-body injury) will not play. The Nick Suzuki-Tyler Toffoli-Joel Armia line, the only Montreal trio to play more than seven minutes of five-on-five minutes together during the 5-2 loss to Toronto on Thursday, was proficient during a game that was a lost cause by the end of the first period. Cole Caufield, who has scored in two consecutive games in Toronto, and Artturi Lehkonen were Montreal’s best offensive threats, per MoneyPuck, and both merit consideration in anytime scorer props. The Canadiens are 9-6-5 in away games with one day of rest.

Jake Allen, who is 11-11-4 with a 2.62 goals-against average and .909 save percentage, stanched some of the bleeding on Thursday by playing the final two periods after rookie Cayden Primeau was in for four first-period goals. Allen has a 2.56 GAA and .911 save pct. against Toronto this season.

Since April 8, Montreal is 31st and last in the NHL in goals-for percentage, or GF% (32.8), and also ranks 23rd in xGF% (46.5). The Canadiens are 29th in goals per game (2.06) and 24^th in goals against (3.41). Their power play ranks 19th (17.8 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 11th (85.1).

The Maple Leafs, who are 34-13-6, have had six consecutive games where their goals-for percentage exceeded their xGF%. There is always a chance of regression with a team that needs just one win to clinch the North Division, but both the Auston Matthews-Joe Thornton-Mitch Marner and John Tavares-Alex Galchenyuk-William Nylander lines were highly efficient on Thursday. Toronto is 10-4-2 in home games with one day of rest, but their goals per game is 2.94 in that scenario, nearly a half-goal lower than their season-long 3.36. Nylander was Toronto’s most hard-luck attacker on Thursday, failing to score on four shots on goal.

Toronto is fifth in GF% (61.3) and third in xGF% (59.2) over the past 30 days. During this span, the Maple Leafs are sixth in goals per game (3.54) and 17th in goals against (2.92). Their power play (9.7 percent) and penalty killing (72.4) each rank 27th.

Frederik Andersen is still on a conditioning stint. First-choice goalie Jack Campbell (16-2-2, 2.11 GAA, .924 save pct.) might be spelled since Toronto could see Montreal in the playoffs. David Rittich (5-8-2, 2.86 GAA, .901 save pct.) has a 1-3-1 record with a 3.00 GAA and .916 save percentage in five career games against Montreal.