Driving The Bus: A look at the Leafs’ new lines
By Cam Charron
12 years agoOn Monday, news was made when Maple Leafs head coach Ron Wilson decided to shake up his lines, most notably moving Tim Connolly to the wing and Nikolai Kulemin down to the third line.
I tallied up the goals, shots and missed shots for and against for every player on the Leafs, along with their offensive and defensive zone starts using the web app from timeonice.com to determine the “adjusted Fenwick” percentages of each line. Fenwick, as regular readers of this website know, is a variant of the Corsi statistic that calculates the rate of unblocked attempts at net for a player’s team when he was on the ice.
Not surprisingly, Mikael Grabovski led the Leafs’ top nine in this statistic, as the only player being over 50% (meaning the Leafs effectively out-shot and likely out-chanced the opposition when Grabovski was on the ice. He is a centreman in the mould of Patrice Bergeron, Jonathan Toews and Ryan Kesler who is strong at both ends). Mike Brown and Dave Steckel were also in the positive by this statistic, but they also face easy competition and don’t play a lot of minutes, so I’m not willing to crown them as strong two-way players just yet.
The other telling thing about this statistic is just how bad Joffrey Lupul is. With Lupul on the ice, the Leafs get outshot 696-611, to just 700-666 with Phil Kessel on the ice, despite Lupul getting 37 more shifts starting at the offensive end of the ice than the defensive end to Kessel’s 31.
Partnered with a winger in Lupul’s place to had the ability to drive possession (or a centreman), I’m led to believe Kessel would have a lot more shots created for him. As a high-volume shooter, not necessarily a high-percentage shooter (he’s one of just five players post-lockout to score 30 goals with a shooting percentage of less than 10%) Kessel needs those shots created. Simply saying that the Leafs first line generates offense off the rush is wrong. Kessel and Lupul’s shooting percentages have slowly started to drop.
The lines, reportedly, will look as follows:
Lupul – Bozak – Kessel
MacArthur – Grabovski – Connolly
Kulemin – Lombardi – Crabb
MacArthur – Grabovski – Connolly
Kulemin – Lombardi – Crabb
Or, to combine player’s individual numbers, like so:
Line | Adj Fen% | PDO |
1 | 46.7% | 102.0% |
2 | 49.8% | 102.3% |
3 | 48.4% | 100.6% |
Player | Adj Fen% | PDO |
Brown | 54.0% | 96.3% |
Steckel | 53.2% | 97.0% |
Grabovski | 52.2% | 103.3% |
MacArthur | 49.3% | 102.5% |
Boyce | 48.7% | 98.4% |
Lombardi | 48.7% | 97.4% |
Kulemin | 48.4% | 102.4% |
Crabb | 48.1% | 100.8% |
Kessel | 48.0% | 101.5% |
Connolly | 47.0% | 100.5% |
Bozak | 46.2% | 102.0% |
Lupul | 45.9% | 102.5% |
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