Embracing the Kessel Trade

I’ve had the privilege of being too busy over the past few
days to have the opportunity to witness the constant outrage over the Kessel
trade on twitter and various other places online. Part of me hoped that all the
dirt kicking would stop, but childish articles from Steve Simmons seemed to
pour more gas on the fire. (Note: Why the hell does anyone still read or care
about Simmons?)

Anyways, I thought I’d weigh in with my very simplistic view
on why I support the Kessel trade, and believe it had to happen now, and why
it’s time to move past it. (Fun Fact: You can still like Phil Kessel on the
Penguins. I like Malkin, he plays on the Penguins. I hate the team, but he’s
sure nice. I think I’ll do the same with Phil.)

Before the trade deadline I came to terms with the fact that
I would never like the return on Kessel, and it seemed like a trade the Leafs
were destined to lose, but had to make nonetheless. It seemed likely that
although Kessel is an elite scorer it would be next to impossible to pry away
the top prospect from any organization in a trade and that’s just an
unfortunate reality of how teams need to be built in the cap era. Although he’s
been playing for the better part of two seasons in the NHL already, it’s clear
that the top young player on the Penguins is Olli Maata and that especially
with the money committed to forwards on the Penguins, they wouldn’t be parting
with a good cheap defenseman. After that you could argue that Pouliot is the
next best prospect, but honestly, I am much happier with getting Kapanen
instead of him. Derrick Pouliot is one of many players that could’ve benefitted
from being part of a powerhouse Winterhawks team in junior, and since his
former junior coach is now the head coach of the Penguins, it would be a tough
sell on getting him anyway. So instead the Leafs received Harrington as an
additional prospect to Kapanen, and get a slightly older, slightly less flashy
defenseman who certainly seems like a blue chip for the NHL, but likely not for
the top pairing.

Acquiring the Penguins 1st was absolutely vital
for my acceptance of this trade, but it does seem likely that the pick will
come in the later part of the first. With the 2016 draft being relatively
strong, although not necessarily as strong as the 2015 draft, it’s entirely
possible the Leafs will be finding a player that could easily fit into the top
of Leafs roster in a few years. Of course, it’s highly unlikely that Kapanen,
Harrington, or this late 1st round pick will ever have a career that
will match Kessel’s but the combination addresses several future needs and
gives the organization depth it’s lacked.

I’ll ignore the mild disappointment of flipping the
Pittsburgh 2nd, for their 3rd (EDIT: NJ’s 3rd), as it’s just a minimal
drop in quality of prospect and look at the last piece, Nick Spaling. Spaling
is a serviceable bottom six player on a decent who just happens to be making a
little more money than he’s probably worth. If Spaling is in anyway productive
this season he might bring a modest return at the trade deadline and that made
him an affordable gamble and reasonable roster spot placeholder to keep Toronto
from rushing prospects into the lineup.

This is easily the biggest point of disappointment for most
(asides from the whole losing Kessel part.) Having to eat $1.2M of salary for
the next seven years is not pleasant, but it’s a modest dull sting as opposed
to taking on Scuderi, Kunitz, or Dupuis and not having the immediate flexibility
the Leafs earned in this deal. Is Kessel so great that you shouldn’t have to do
anything along these lines in order to trade him? In principle yes, in practice
you have eight teams you can deal with, each of them very close to the cap
ceiling, and some of them with very minimal interest in adding an expensive
winger. So given the limited market and the cap reality, this needed to happen.

The importance of the Kessel occurring now basically stems
from the cap space earned. Kessel’s $8M cap hit was replaced with $1.2M of
retained salary, and Spaling’s $2.2M cap hit, giving the Leafs $4.6M additional
money to work with this summer, and $6.8M next summer.

If Kessel stayed with the Leafs, potentially you’d get a
similar or possibly slightly improved deal at the trade deadline or next
summer. So basically your return is still 2 prospects, a 1st, and a
small salary dump. You would have had Kessel for another year, and he would
improve your team giving you a better chance at the playoffs with a worse shot
at a better lottery pick. I’d argue the lottery pick is more important right
now.

With that $4.6M of opened cap space the Leafs have essentially
added P.A. Parenteau, Marc Arcobello, and Shawn Matthias on one year deals. So
potentially with the Kessel deal occurring now, you’ve added three additional
pieces to deal that could all return additional picks or prospects over the
course of the season which would likely surpass the additional return you’d get
while playing the “wait and see” game with Kessel. To an even greater extent
adding these temporary players you’ve now given the Leafs the opportunity to
free up additional roster players with term for moving this summer, and with a
reduced importance of shedding further salary now that the cap pressure has
been alleviated.

Since the Leafs are still well under the cap with only
Marincin and Bernier to re-sign, it’s understandable to make the case that the
Leafs could have brought in a number of the players they did anyways without
resorting to the Kessel cap space and this is somewhat true, but having
additional space to in order to facilitate further transactions throughout the
year is vital to not handcuffing the speed in which the rebuild can occur.

I get it, most of us really love Phil and it’s hard to see
him leave in a deal that on the surface is disappointing. It’s also hard to
predict when the Leafs will have the opportunity to add an elite young player
in their 20s to the roster at the time that they need one. The reality of this,
is that Kessel would be entering his 30s around the next time the Leafs are
entering the playoffs, and that with the amount of prospect depth the Leafs
have been working towards in the short term, it’s entirely possible the Leafs
will have the movable assets required to bring in a talented player the next
time a playoff team begins to fall out of contention.

In closing, I’ll miss Phil, the trade expected left me
wanting, but I can see that this was a necessary step for the Leafs to ever
move forward.