How the Matt Duchene Trade Impacts the Leafs

Last night, we saw one of the biggest trades in a long time, as Matt Duchene went to the Senators, Kyle Turris went to Nashville, and the Avalanche got SEVEN PIECES in return. So, I’m going to do what anyone would do when the Senators do something big: make it about the Leafs.

The biggest impact this trade has on the Leafs is how it affects their divisional rival, the Ottawa Senators. Many look at the trade as a win for the Sens, because they finally solidified their center role, and have a bit more stability, especially since Turris was a UFA this season.

This isn’t a new thing for the Senators either. In the summer of 2016, they traded Mika Zibanejad, who was in the final year of his contract, for Derick Brassard, who still had three years left. Why? Because as a team with very little money, the less negotiating they have to do with great players, the easier it is to manage their internal cap. Essentially, they traded a mystery contract in Zibanejad, and in exchange got a contract that they knew the amount of in Brassard, if it makes any sense.

It’s the driving reason why the Senators made the Dion Phaneuf trade. It wasn’t just to add a bit more depth on defense, but also because they were getting a defenseman locked up for five more years after this season, at a salary that was slowly decreasing as the years went along.

Likewise, they traded a potential UFA in Turris who was asking for a contract that they couldn’t afford, and got a center who has an extra year on his contract. Basically, the Sens are like the college or university student who takes the grace period on an assignment. Even though they still have to hand in the assignment, they’re just putting off further and further.

Now, one issue with this is that Duchene will probably want more than Turris did, and there isn’t much the Sens can do about it. Going into the contract discussions starting next summer, Duchene has all the leverage. He can ask for how ever much he thinks he deserves, and there will probably a team that will give him that, but it might not be the Senators. However, the Sens will be heavily pressed to re-sign him, because you don’t give up as much as the Sens did, and just let the player you got walk for nothing. So, that might come back to bite Ottawa.

Also, in terms of value, did the Sens really win the trade? Let’s compare Turris and Duchene to see how much of an improvement Ottawa got.

 

 

The good news for Sens fans is that Duchene is an improvement over Turris. Duchene has better numbers, all while playing for a weaker team, so there is that unknown. The one thing with Turris is his relative numbers might look bad just because Erik Karlsson is a really high bar to meet, but that’s only hypothetical.

However, it’s not a massive gap in between value of the two players, definitely not big enough to give up a 2018 1st round pick, 2018 3rd round pick, Shane Bowers and Andrew Hammond, while also getting rid of Turris. The 2018 1st is protected if it falls in the top 10, but even then, the 2018 draft is so deep that a pick anywhere in this draft has a lot of value.

To bring it back to the college/university student comparison, the Senators took a few extra days after the deadline in order to fine tune their assignment, at the cost of 15% off of their grade. Maybe their assignment is good enough that it’s an improvement even with the 15% dock, but the odds aren’t likely.

So, how does this impact the Leafs? Right now, very little. Matt Duchene is a slight upgrade at center, so the Senators are slightly better because of it. It shows they’re in win now mode, and want to compete. It might make the Leafs ability to win in the next year or two more difficult, but if it does, it will be by a slight margin. In the future, this will probably make the Senators worse, so that’s one less team that the Leafs have to worry about down the road when their Cup window really opens.

Another way this trade impacts the Leafs is if they plan on shipping Tyler Bozak this season. I mentioned last week a few reasons why the Leafs should explore trading Bozak, a couple of them being related to the market. Well, this trade helps improve that market in the Leafs case. Two of the biggest centers on the market have been traded, so suddenly it’s wide open. There is no clear cut big fish on the market, so it might be a lot easier for the Leafs to drop the bait, and see what bites.

Also, this furthers the point I made about how centers get a lot in value. Ottawa gave up a 1st, a 3rd, a prospect, and two players (Turris and Hammond) to get Duchene. Nashvile gave up a 2nd and two really good prospects to get Turris. Centers have a value that only a top 2 defenseman could match, and some GMs do stupid things to acquire a center.

Now, I don’t think Bozak will fetch the Leafs a return close to what Duchene or Turris got, but the Leafs can at least get something decent for him. It’s not hard to picture the Leafs finding a stupid team desperate for a center with some scoring history (albeit not entirely driven by himself), and giving up a solid return for him. Nothing big, but if the Leafs play the game right and wait until his value is a bit higher, you could probably find a team who thinks he’s good, and get a lower pick, say a 2nd or 3rd, and an average to below average prospect.

Disclaimer, since this point was lost the last time I talked about trading him: I’m not saying that I think that Bozak is this valuable, but that I think there’s a GM dumb enough to think he’s this valuable. Is it certain? No. Is there a possibility? Sure.

So, to conclude this, the Duchene trade not only benefits the Leafs because a rival gave up a lot to make a lateral move, it also benefits the trade market for centers if the Leafs decide to go down the path of trading Bozak.