In case you’ve been living under a rock for the last few days (or are like me, and are just busy with assignments), word has broke out that Seattle could potentially get an expansion team. While many Leafs fans might ignore it because of how little it impacted them with Vegas, next time they will not be let off as easily.

Not only will the big three actually need to be protected this time, but the various other prospects and draft picks the Leafs have assembled over the last three years will also be in the picture. The Leafs will probably be stuck between a rock and a hard place this time, and will lose someone much better than Brendan Leipsic. So, let’s investigate the likely scenarios.

Before we figure out who they’ll lose, let’s see who they’ll even have going into the expansion draft. This is the Leafs current cap situation, at the time that I’m writing this on the evening of December 7th, via NHLnumbers:

The actual salaries aren’t important, so much as the contract durations are. According to the most recent announcement regarding the expansion, the expansion will likely happen in 2020. So, which Leafs will still be under contract then? It’s a small list that includes only Nazem Kadri, Zach Hyman, Morgan Rielly, Nikita Zaitsev, and Frederik Andersen, with Patrick Marleau, Matt Martin, Connor Brown, Nathan Horton (lol), Carl Grundstrom, Timothy Liljegren, Travis Dermott, Jeremy Bracco, Adam Brooks, Andrew Nielsen, and Dmytro Timashov all needing new contracts. So, barring trades, those will all be players that will still be on the team, and considering all of them are either in the NHL or AHL, will be eligible for the expansion draft.

Then, there’s the RFAs that need to be re-signed either this offseason or next offseason. This includes: Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, Nikita Soshnikov, Josh Leivo, Andreas Borgman, Connor Carrick, Martin Marincin, Calvin Pickard, Trevor Moore, Kasimir Kaskisuo, Miro Aaltonen, Calle Rosen, Frederik Gauthier, Kasperi Kapanen, Kerby Rychel, Rinat Valiev, Andreas Johnsson, Garret Sparks, and Justin Holl. Barring trades, or not being re-signed, it’s safe to assume that they will all be here still.

That leaves the UFAs expiring this and next year, which includes: James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak, Leo Komarov, Dominic Moore, Jake Gardiner, Ron Hainsey, Roman Polak, Curtis McElhinney, Joffrey Lupul (lol), Eric Fehr, Colin Greening, Vincent LoVerde, Ben Smith, and Chris Mueller. Looking at this list, there are probably only two that will be re-signed: Jake Gardiner, and James van Riemsdyk, although the latter is a stretch.

Assuming this is the case, the Leafs team going into the expansion draft could look like this:

Zach Hyman – Auston Matthews – Connor Brown

Patrick Marleau – Nazem Kadri – Kasperi Kapanen

James van Riemsdyk – William Nylander – Mitch Marner

Matt Martin – Miro Aaltonen – Nikita Soshnikov

Josh Leivo, Frederik Gauthier

 

Morgan Rielly – Timothy Liljegren

Jake Gardiner – Nikita Zaitsev

Andreas Borgman – Connor Carrick

Calle Rosen/Travis Dermott

 

Frederik Andersen – Calvin Pickard/Garrett Sparks

Note: I don’t think the lines will actually look like this, I’m just taking the current lineup and subbing in their replacements internally. Also, this is assuming that the Leafs don’t sign or trade anyone, and that whoever they draft will still be developing in the minors/juniors.

Also, if the team doesn’t re-sign JVR, then I’d sub Leivo in his spot.

So, I’m going to be assuming that the expansion draft in 2020 will follow the same rules as the one this year. That means you either protect 7-3-1 or 8-1, and every player in their first or second professional season will be exempt. Every player that I’ve chosen to still be in the organization will be eligible, so the Leafs are in pretty tough.

I’m going to assume the Leafs will be running the 7-3-1, because I’d imagine their fourth best defenseman (either Carrick or Zaitsev) would not be worth leaving their fifth, sixth, and seventh best forwards unexposed. If this is the case, the Leafs are probably looking at a protection list like this:

If JVR isn’t re-signed, I’d imagine that Zach Hyman, or another forward in the system that has really stepped up over the last three years (which is pretty likely, IMO), would be the replacement on this list. Brown and Kapanen are on here because out of the remaining forwards, they have the highest ceiling, but that could easily change in three years.

On defense, I really don’t see anyone surpassing the three I have in terms of value, unless a young defenseman proves to be good enough that they’d have to be protected over a 30-years old (and slightly declining) Jake Gardiner.

Goaltending, however, is up in the air. I could see the Leafs being in a similar situation to the Penguins, where the veteran goalie and the younger backup both need to be protected. Freddy will be 31 in 2020, while Sparks will be on the verge of 27 come expansion draft, and Pickard will be 28. A lot of this could also depend on contracts, and who they feel better having as the starter down the road. It’s so vague that it’s hard to even take a shot at right now. That’s also assuming that another goalie in the system, like Ian Scott, doesn’t also make big strides forward.

So, who could the Leafs end up losing? They obviously aren’t losing an elite player, but they are definitely losing someone better than Leipsic.

I see it dwindling down to losing someone along the lines of Hyman (if he isn’t protected), Leivo, Carrick, or Andersen (if he isn’t protected). Of course, Adam Brooks could become an elite two way center, and screw everything up, so who really knows.

One thing I could see the Leafs doing is something a few teams did with Vegas, and dangle a couple picks/prospects and make them claim Zaitsev (or another bad contract). Considering that this team is projected to be a Cup contender by that point, the team’s first round pick wouldn’t be worth too much to them, so they could probably afford to do that. Plus, if a similar team is still around by that point, I’m sure a lot of the prospects in the minors (Bracco, Rychel, Johnsson, etc.) could be considered expendable, plus whoever they draft in the upcoming years. That’s something we might see them explore down the road.

But like I said, this is almost three years from now. My list will probably look completely different by the end of this season, and the same a year later. Even if it’s all hypothetical, it’s still fun to speculate. This is just a blog after all, it’s not like this will be quoted or anything.