In favour of a fourth line that includes Mason Raymond

 

I thought that the best game the Toronto Maple Leafs played last season was the fourth game of the playoffs against Boston. It ended poorly, unfortunately, on an overtime goal by David Krejci, the Leafs played some inspired hockey after Mark Fraser took a puck in the face and after the fourth line got benched thanks to a terrible penalty taken by Colton Orr that resulted in a goal against.

The Leafs rolled three lines and five defencemen and looked pretty good. As I noted in my post titled “the accidental juggernaut, the Leafs out-chanced Boston 9-4 after Fraser and Orr found themselves out of the game, before that, they had been out-chanced 11-14 by the same Bruins.

What will it take for Randy Carlyle & Co. to be convinced that the Maple Leafs are better built off of skill than toughness. While the Boston Bruins model is tempting to emulate, it overlooks the fact that the Bruins have a tonne of skill in the top six and bottom six of their roster, and are one of the smaller teams in the National Hockey League. When the Leafs let their fourth line alone in the fourth game, it forced them to use their skilled units more effectively. Nazem Kadri played with Phil Kessel, and Tyler Bozak and Joffrey Lupul were put together on a third line with Matt Frattin. It wasn’t a “third line” in the checking sense, just that they got the third most ice-time out of the three units, and still generated chances.

This is the future of the NHL, like it or not. Restrictions on fighting have already begun in the major junior leagues, and the NHL has been rumoured to be thinking about banning helmet-less fights. Simply put, the worst players in the NHL are the fighters, and they’re the ones holding skilled players back in the minor leagues. If your team is better off without your fighting fourth line, why not add some skill to it, as in…

We’re looking for a roster spot for Mason Raymond, who impressed in his first game preseason game with the Leafs and is definitely in the mix for an NHL job. He’s a player worth taking a chance on: low risk if he doesn’t work out, and high reward if he regains the same form he had pre-back injury.

Here is how the projected lines shake up with a “punching” fourth line:

van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Kessel
Lupul – Kadri – Clarkson
McClement – Bolland – Kulemin
McLaren – Colborne – Orr

Here’s the rub, though. Colton Orr still hasn’t hit the ice at Leafs camp with a leg bone bruise. Frazer McLaren broke his finger in a Saturday practice and is apparently out for two weeks.

Suppose those injuries stretch into the regular season. How does that change the dynamic?

van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Kessel
Lupul – Kadri – Clarkson
McClement – Bolland – Kulemin
Raymond – Colborne – Broll/d’Amigo/Whoever

That fourth line looks legitimately better, I think. Simply changing the wingers from two tough guys changes the dynamic of the overall group, and they become a line you can use in sheltered scoring situations in the early going in the season, the same way you broke Nazem Kadri into the league last season.

I don’t know what makes people think that Orr’s staged fights have a positive impact on the game. I’ve tried to show in the past that other teams that saw large increases in fights didn’t actually always lead to more wins, the teams that actually cut their fights by a significant amount saw their win totals increase! The problem is that when you’re dressing a fighter, you’re dressing a player that occasionally records 29 penalty minutes in just two seconds of ice-time. There’s an opportunity cost by having a skilled player in the press box or in the minors, somebody who may be able to generate meaningful ice-time in limited shifts, or have the ability to play enough to take some of the pressure off of the top players.

No player that played more than 10 games registered a lower average ice-time than McLaren last season at 5:12. Only two players with more than 40 games registered a lower average ice-time than Orr at 6:23. Even the Bruins have a two-time 10-goal scorer centreing their fourth line, and a former 20th overall pick. You don’t need a pair of goons to have a chance, or to be considered a tough team.

Both McLaren and Orr can be put in the minors and they won’t count against the salary cap. This gives you space to sign Raymond and perhaps even Cody Franson with the $1.6-million in salary cap space you save. Even without Raymond, there’s a good collection of wingers down on the farm that can probably provide meaningful minutes in a way Orr and McLaren can’t.

So suppose these injuries stretch into the season… what does your fourth line look like?