LGD – Game 77: Flames @ Leafs – Adam Wylde’s Rant

Dear Steve, Chris and everyone who listens to this podcast…

I apologize for my absence these last couple shows; I’m day-to-day with the flu and haven’t left my house since Thursday night (just before the last podcast was recorded). It’s been an ugly weekend—achy muscles, no voice, runny nose, constant cough—but it did allow me plenty of time to watch my favourite team play my favourite game in the world: hockey. Maple Leafs hockey. Two games, one weekend. Playoffs at stake. Awesome. 

Ohhhh hockey… with its skates, and its pucks, and its hits and its EIGHT-GAME LOSING STREAKS! Maybe I’m still high on flu meds here but did the Leafs not play as though there were high on flu meds? Did it not seem as though they were coached by a man who was also high on flu meds? Did it not also seem as though, every time the camera panned to Nonis, that he was stunned… as though he was on flu meds? Maybe it wasn’t the flu meds though… maybe it was the Corsi. Maybe the Corsi finally jumped up and punched everyone in Leafs management right between the eyes (something I wish Riddick Bowe had actually done).

My arch nemesis Andrew Jerkshire tweeted last night “It’s almost like this Leafs collapse was entirely predictable from the get go” and you know what really sucks… That Jerkshire is Correctshire. His team, the Montreal Canadiens, will likely be the only team from Canada going to the playoffs this year. If you’re keeping track, it’s now 9 out of the last 10 seasons the Leafs have missed the playoffs. They are fucking spectacular at being a fucking disaster. And again, the advanced stats community saw this coming.

How, pray tell, are a bunch of bloggers who operate from “their Mom’s basements” (no disrespect Steve/Jeffler/Cam Charron/The Pension Plan Puppets or anyone else in the blogging world who have been so unbelievably correct all along it’s actually ridiculous), who “never actually watch the game”, who “don’t know hockey”, who “didn’t learn from the greats”, who never actually get to interview the players so they “don’t know the dressing room dynamic”…HOW did they see this coming, but nary a sportswriter* NOR THE ENTIRE MAPLE LEAFS BRAIN-TRUST did not?

(*there are notable exceptions: James Mirtle most prominent among them) 

It’s funny what happens when all the intangibles, the sand papers, the gritty guys, the muckers, the role players, the tough guys, the hard to play againsts’, the pressure performers, the MIMICO’S and the #GoodSticks’ melt away… what you get is a team that for the second season in 3, played itself out of a playoff spot with such wild magnificence that it would have been an impossible to write for a script and for it to be believable. 

I’m no expert. I never proclaim to be. I’m a fan with opinions, who hosts a podcast with a Canucks fan and someone who knows a thing or two about about numbers. Numbers don’t lie. As much as this person said “I’d love to be wrong about this, but….” over and over and over again, he and his basement dwelling buddies nailed it—the Leafs got away with murder, but they were only ever going to get away with it for so long. When we started this podcast just before the conference finals last year, Corsi was a basic unknown to me. It’s taken me a season, but I am now a believer. 

The tough reality in life is numbers don’t lie. Here’s a number: The chances of the Leafs making the playoffs as it currently stands is 6.5%*. Another couple numbers from David Alter: 80 and 17. The Leafs have had 80 points for 17** straight days. Doesn’t that just eat you alive? 

As bleak a picture as it is, I’d like to leave it on a positive note. When things go wrong, the most intelligent of us learn from the experience. Why do we fall? So we can learn to get back up. My hope is that losing this season solves a lot of the problems for the seasons coming. My hope is that Nonis and company, who are not stupid men, take a harder look at the things which predicted just this and try move forward with solving those issues instead of burying their heads in the sand as they did this year. My hope is 52 weeks from today, we can be talking about how this Leafs team looks nothing like the team we saw the year previous and what a stand up job management has done to correct the issues. I want that. I want them to succeed. I want them to be the most successful ever. You probably do too… and they’re capable. So my hope is a challenge to Leafs from President Lieweke right on down to the players: see your errors, correct your errors, and we will support you. Embrace the future. You’ve put us through enough. 

The $8-10 million the Leafs will lose by not going to the playoffs. That should be the wakeup call enough.

Thanks for listening to my rant. Be back Thursday with more stupid things to say that you’ll probably disagree with 😉 

Love and Kisses – Adam Wylde 

*Number updated with the current figure after Monday’s games. Per sportsclubstats.com, the Leafs sit at 4.6%.

**19 now