Making Sense of the Expansion Draft

Back in December during the Board of Governors meeting the topic of what the Expansion Draft needs to look like was first raised publicly. I responded with a whole lot of speculation on the topic. Today as the GM meetings wrap up we’ve begun to get a bit of insight into what we can actually expect to see, and once again we can begin to speculate on how that will impact that Leafs.

So there’s our starting place, a timeline on when we can expect an expansion announcement, and the prediction that we are most likely to see the NHL expand by one team, in Las Vegas. 

This isn’t hugely surprising since the Canadian dollar has struggled, Quebec wasn’t a strong market two decades ago when that was also the case, and now we’re also seeing what happens to ticket sales when Vancouver, Winnipeg, and Ottawa don’t have competitive teams. An expansion team is at best coming in at the lower end of being a bubble team, and with a few years of work to do. Winnipeg is doing an excellent job of showing it’s impatience for that. 

There is also the fact that this would be the NHL’s first time expanding and holding an expansion draft in the salary cap era. They are likely going to want to test this out with one team to make sure they get it right. Add in the fact that the NHL wants Seattle to take a run at a team, it’s likely they re-open the expansion process in the near future.

What this means for the Leafs: The Leafs will probably only lose one player in the Expansion Draft since it will be required that all teams lose one player. It’s not going to be a dramatic tear down of the organization, but likely one of the better, younger players the Leafs control will be on their way out.

This in theory sounds like a very fair way to make sure that the Expansion Team(s) have a shot at bona fide NHL players, but most teams are probably able to get there exclusively on regrettable contracts or players starting to pass their prime. 

What this means for the Leafs: Lupul, Bozak, Horton, and Komarov help get the Leafs a lot of the way to where they need to be in order to meet that 25% target. If players who will be becoming UFAs also count towards that, you can add in Greening, Michalek, and Bernier to make sure the Leafs won’t be exposing players they want to keep because of this rule.

The interesting twist on this is that for other teams around the league, they will likely be sitting on talented players they will have to expose, but don’t want to risk losing for nothing. This is where the Leafs are in a good position to acquire NHL talent in what should be a very active trade market next June.

That’s where it starts getting interesting and this was one of my biggest questions back in December, who is going to be exempt. This does an excellent job of taking a lot of the key futures off the board which has to be a big deal for teams.

This is still a fuzzy area for me. Are European leagues treated as professional leagues? Does time spent in the AHL while your entry level deal slides count as being a pro? Does this simply mean that players on the first or second year of their entry level deal are exempt? I’m also curious if this means that if the second year is considered completed at the end of the 2016-17 season, is that player now exposed in the Expansion Draft and require protection?

What this means for the Leafs: Basically this comes down to which prospects need to be protected. In all likelihood Nylander, Kapanen, and Soshnikov need to be protected. We know for sure that Brown, Leipsic, Connor Carrick, and Harrington would be eligible for the draft. Zach Hyman, Frederik Gauther, Andreas Johnson, and Tobias Lindstrom are the interesting cases as they would have completed 2 years of pro contracts at that point.

Ultimately this means very little for the Leafs, the Leafs are going to lose one good young player, but through the number of protected spaces, it won’t be the best of the best. It’s the unfortunate reality that a well run team isn’t going to take Joffrey Lupul in the expansion draft, that doesn’t mean they won’t be trade for him later to get to the cap floor, but a smart team will be focusing on the best 20-25 year olds available to them at this point. They’ll take care of the cap floor via trades and free agency later.

This is the true meat of the announcements today. Each team can protect either the template of seven forwards, three defenseman and a goaltender, or they can have the freedom to go with eight skaters using whatever combination they want and one goaltender. This isn’t too far off of what the NHL set out previously, but before the second option allowed for you to protect a second goaltender, so that exclusion is interesting. 

This will certainly lead to interesting trades to the new team(s) to make sure other players are not selected, and I’m sure this will again be heavily influenced by goaltenders more than any other position.

It’s fascinating that by protecting Braden Holtby, the Caps will have to expose a very talented goaltending prospect in Ilya Samsonov or the Pens will have to choose between protecting Marc-Andre Fleury or exposing Matt Murray and Tristan Jarry. This should make for a very interesting goaltender trade market prior to the Expansion Draft.

What this means for the Leafs: The Leafs are in a very good situation in that they do not have a surplus of high end talent that would need to be exposed in the Expansion Draft. A quick breakdown of their situation using players in their system today gives us this:

Now, obviously that’s a starting point, and if I were to share my own projections on who gets protected it’s:

At least, unless the Leafs plan on adding a talented center from Tampa or pretty much any other major transaction, this is where I’d start. I can certainly understand the case that can be made for Marincin over Carrick, or if Brown or Leipsic don’t particularly stand out, maybe there’s a case for Komarov as well, but in the absence of major long term acquisitions the Leafs easily fit into the space required.

The most interesting name on the list is probably Garret Sparks. Given the amount of talented goaltenders who will be available heading into an expansion draft

#1. The Leafs will be in a prime situation to trade for a strong young goaltender

#2. With the amount of talent that will be available, it’s likely Sparks would not be taken, as the Leafs are a much better option for a young skater.

The potential overhaul of the Leafs lineup over the summer largely makes this exercise pointless, but serves the point that the Leafs would be wise to again pursue short term contracts and limit themselves to at most one or two major acquisitions to not risk exposing top talent in the Expansion Draft.

The last real frontier of the expansion draft is the one that needs the greatest input from the NHLPA, and that’s what to do with No Trade and No Movement Clauses. 

Seemingly, no trade clauses should be easily factored into this because these players can already be exposed to waivers and potentially wind up on any team in the league. I say “seemingly” because the NHLPA will still fight the NHL on this.

No Movement Clauses are far more interesting because it truly handcuffs the team on any movement. If a player with this clause identifies an expansion team as place they wouldn’t go, how is that treated?

Personally, I operate under the idea that teams should not get a “get out jail free card” on this, and have a player protected without using one of their protected spaces, I believe the team should be required to protect that player. It seems like common sense, but that’s not always how this league operates.

What this means for the Leafs: Of course the names on the Leafs with NTC are Lupul and Bozak and having to protect either of them in an expansion draft is about the most unappealing thought ever. So let’s hope I’m right and No Trade Clauses aren’t a factor in this.

The other player that factors into this is Nathan Horton who has a no movement clause that expires after the 2016-17 season and then turns into a no trade clause. As was rightfully mentioned to me earlier it’s probably just a simple matter of asking Nathan Horton to waive his NMC for the expansion draft, knowing he won’t be picked, but an interesting situation nonetheless.

#1. Nazem Kadri has a contract expiring this summer, do you sign him to a one year deal and hope that an expansion team doesn’t pick him up because they will lose him as a UFA? Do you feel confident that Kadri can be brought back after and that the price associated with this risk would be worth it?

#2. The trade market should be sensational heading into the expansion draft, I’d be doing everything in my power to make sure I enter the next season with the cap space and a number of available contracts to help make the most of it.

#3. Given that the 2016-17 season is the last season before potential chaos, how many teams are going to be looking to “win now” and what does that do to the market of Leafs players who wouldn’t necessary fit into the Leafs long term plans? Who can the Leafs sell high on? Is this the going to create a bigger market for Bozak and van Riemsdyk?

In short, chaos in the NHL is good for a team that has a young, growing base of talent and few long term commitments. The Leafs may lose a young player who could’ve been a long term fixture in the bottom half of their lineup, but they have plenty more of those guys to spare. Few teams are in the position the Leafs are to escape expansion with as little damage as they will, and few teams are in the position to pick up the pieces faster. At the very least, few things will be more exciting than an expansion draft in the twitter age.

UPDATE: We have confirmation that Nylander & Co. would fit into the need to protect group.