Maple Leafs scoring chances through 24 games
By Cam Charron
11 years ago
Through 24 games we’ve tracked the Toronto Maple Leafs. They’ve taken 230 scoring chances in that span of time and the opponents have taken 236. The team is mostly around even, and considering they’ve spent a lot of time through the first half of the season ahead, the ice has been naturally tilted against them.
So that’s the good news. I’ve tallied up the individual totals from each game that I post in the game recaps, fix any errors with the data, and adjust them per 20 minutes. Here is the data after 24 games:
First, what is a scoring chance? We use the definition from the Copper n Blue:
A scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area – loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots (nicknamed the Home Plate), though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a “chance for” if someone on his team has a chance to score and a “chance against” if the opposing team has a chance to score.
The home plate area:
That’s the “official” definition for scoring chances used by myself and a few other stats bloggers. I exclude dribblers as chances and will extend the scoring chance area if there was excellent puck movement prior to the shot. Generally, scoring chances don’t really tell us much more about the game than shot-differential numbers do. I post them here this year because they’re a good “gateway” micro statistic, something that bridges the gap between goals and Corsi.
Here are the Leafs’ forward totals. I’ve restricted the data to forwards who have played 100 or more minutes:
| Player | TOI | Total + | Total – | + per 20 | – per 20 | +/- per 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarke MacArthur | 263.85 | 75 | 51 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| Nazem Kadri | 285.15 | 77 | 54 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| Matt Frattin | 114.98 | 32 | 24 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 |
| Leo Komarov | 280.48 | 66 | 50 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 |
| Colton Orr | 136.33 | 26 | 27 | 3.8 | 4.0 | -0.1 |
| James van Riemsdyk | 346.02 | 77 | 84 | 4.5 | 4.9 | -0.4 |
| Tyler Bozak | 345.38 | 69 | 80 | 4.0 | 4.6 | -0.6 |
| Phil Kessel | 369.1 | 75 | 87 | 4.1 | 4.7 | -0.7 |
| Mikhail Grabovski | 332.88 | 67 | 79 | 4.0 | 4.7 | -0.7 |
| Nik Kulemin | 315.4 | 63 | 76 | 4.0 | 4.8 | -0.8 |
| Jay McClement | 255.4 | 35 | 58 | 2.7 | 4.5 | -1.8 |
Nazem Kadri and his line are the only players who have been able to drive play for the Toronto Maple Leafs. It’s a little unfair to stack up offensive and defensive numbers like this given the role the players play for Randy Carlyle. Mikhail Grabovski, frequently pummelled in chances, has to play a hard-match against first-liners and generally takes face-offs in the defensive zone. Since the Leafs don’t have a good fourth line used for the sole purpose of moving the puck out of their zone, there aren’t a heck of a lot of offensive zone starts available for the Leafs—that hurts Tyler Bozak’s line as well.
Ray Ferraro on last night’s Senators-Leafs broadcasts made the point that Kadri has been playing third liners, but he’s been pummelling them. That’s been what I’ve noticed to. If Carlyle has done anything right coaching this year, it’s been getting Nazem Kadri minutes he can succeed in. The problem is that Grabovski, Bozak, Jay McClement and David Steckel’s minutes aren’t being optimized.
Side note, just how good is Clarke MacArthur? Team better look for ways to re-sign him…
Now for the defence:
| Player | TOI | Total + | Total – | + per 20 | – per 20 | +/- per 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Franson | 260.87 | 63 | 47 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 |
| Mark Fraser | 255.15 | 59 | 44 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 |
| Carl Gunnarsson | 260.57 | 58 | 45 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 |
| Mike Kostka | 401.3 | 83 | 91 | 4.1 | 4.5 | -0.4 |
| John-Michael Liles | 245.35 | 45 | 53 | 3.7 | 4.3 | -0.7 |
| Korbinian Holzer | 254.45 | 54 | 63 | 4.2 | 5.0 | -0.7 |
| Dion Phaneuf | 424.03 | 88 | 107 | 4.2 | 5.0 | -0.9 |
(I like that rounding quirk with Holzer and Phaneuf’s overall differential.)
Like the forwards, it’s bleak on the top two pairings, but the third pairing is alright. Cody Franson and Mark Fraser are doing everything that’s expected of them. Carl Gunnarsson despite his injuries has averaged +1.0 scoring chances per 20 minutes of play which is pretty exceptional given how rough he’s looked this season. Him and Mike Kostka have been a pretty good pairing, but generally it’s been Dion Phaneuf and Korbinian Holzer expected to play top comp.
Here’s my question to Mr. Carlyle: “Given that your top two lines and top defencemen pairing get murdered on puck-possession each night, why do you still opt for hard match ups?”
The Colton Orr and Nazem Kadri combination
There were four games this season where Carlyle put Colton Orr and Nazem Kadri together, taking Leo Komarov off of that line. I forget what the initial reasoning was, but it was decided that Orr would protect Kadri and that he would create space for him in the offensive zone. What it actually did was slow Kadri to a crawl and completely restricted his offence.
That line was together for the Leafs’ first game against Ottawa, games against Florida and Tampa Bay, and the home game against Montreal. Here has how Kadri did in those games versus other games:
| TOI | Total + | Total – | + per 20 | – per 20 | +/- per 20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| With Colton Orr | 59.55 | 12 | 10 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 0.7 |
| Without Colton Orr | 225.6 | 65 | 44 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.9 |
I posted that statistic on Twitter and an OHL scout said the following:
More from Victor: “To expand on my tweet, it was a U17 camp and I figured Peluso would help JT and Logan by creating space. Wrong. Peluso felt that because he was on a line he could play with them. Couldn’t.”
“It wasn’t until we put Peluso on the 4th line that he played better. He was the best of the 4th liners. By then it was too late as we went 0-3 for the weekend in camp.”
The funny thing is that when Colton Orr isn’t fighting, the Leafs aren’t doing horrible in scoring chances. The qualifier is that when Orr’s line has a good shift, it’s generally against the other teams’ 4th line. Tough as he may be, that line is a clear area of weakness for the Leafs.
Behind the Net numbers for forwards and defence. These are mostly for my own reference. Worth noting that Mikhail Grabovski’s Corsi Rel QoC (Quality of Competition) has actually *increased* from the 12-game mark:
| NAME | TOI/60 | Corsi Relative | Corsi On | Off Zone Start % | Corsi Rel QoC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarke MacArthur | 13.19 | 21.6 | 7.96 | 48.8 | -0.106 |
| Nazem Kadri | 12.40 | 20.5 | 8.21 | 50.8 | -0.319 |
| Matt Frattin | 11.50 | 12.7 | 2.61 | 46.3 | 0.376 |
| Leo Komarov | 12.19 | 5.9 | -2.57 | 48.1 | 0.026 |
| Phil Kessel | 16.05 | 0.9 | -6.34 | 48.6 | 0.791 |
| James van Riemsdyk | 15.04 | -0.5 | -7.28 | 46.9 | 1.139 |
| Tyler Bozak | 15.02 | -3.1 | -9.03 | 45.6 | 0.792 |
| Mikhail Grabovski | 14.47 | -3.8 | -9.55 | 33.6 | 1.810 |
| Colton Orr | 6.82 | -7.0 | -12.76 | 50.6 | -1.615 |
| Nik Kulemin | 13.71 | -8.4 | -12.94 | 32.7 | 1.978 |
| Jay McClement | 11.10 | -20.1 | -22.32 | 31.7 | 0.702 |
| NAME | TOI/60 | Corsi Relative | Corsi On | Off Zone Start % | Corsi Rel QoC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Franson | 13.04 | 16.5 | 5.06 | 50.9 | -1.841 |
| Mark Fraser | 12.76 | 8.6 | -1.18 | 51.4 | -1.309 |
| Carl Gunnarsson | 17.37 | 5.1 | -1.61 | 41.0 | 0.860 |
| Mike Kostka | 17.45 | 4.6 | -4.04 | 44.1 | 1.024 |
| John-Michael Liles | 16.36 | -5.9 | -10.27 | 49.0 | 0.265 |
| Dion Phaneuf | 18.44 | -8.3 | -12.03 | 38.8 | 1.910 |
| Korbinian Holzer | 15.90 | -19.2 | -19.81 | 39.8 | 1.584 |
Scoring chance and advanced statistics on this page updated through games played on March 6, 2013.
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