Maple Leafs vs Canadiens 05/24/21 – Odds and NHL Betting Trends

The Toronto Maple Leafs take a strong record in the front end of back-to-back games into an arena where they have performed relatively well.  The Maple Leafs are -165 away favorites and the Montreal Canadiens are +145 home underdogs with a 5.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Monday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com (how the moneyline works).

The teams will play again on Tuesday. Toronto is 8-4 in its last 12 games when they were also playing the following day, with a 5-5-2 split on the totals at betting sites. The Canadiens are 2-7 in their last nine games on the front end of a back-to-back, with the total going OVER six times. The Maple Leafs are 5-5 in their last 10 games as a -140 to -180 favorite, with the total going OVER just three times. The Canadiens are 8-12 in their last 20 games as an underdog at home, with the total going OVER just eight times.

The North Division semifinal series is tied 1-1 after Toronto’s 5-1 win on Saturday. The Maple Leafs have outscored the Canadiens 3-2 in the five-on-five phase thanks to a 60.5 expected goals-for percentage/xGF% which includes a 56.8 high-danger chances share, according to Natural Stat Trick. On the season, the Maple Leafs are 8-3-1 against the Canadiens with a 27-19 edge in five-on-five goals. On the power play, counting playoff and regular-season matchups, the Maple Leafs are eight-for-37 and the Canadiens are four-for-28. (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)

During the regular season, the Maple Leafs were opportunistic in away games against the Canadiens, notching a 58.4 goals-for percentage that exceeded a 49.6 xGF%. Toronto had a 6-1 advantage in power plays during a series-tying 5-1 win last Saturday, which is unlikely to be repeated, but the Auston Matthews-Zach Hyman-Mitch Marner line had a five-on-five xGF% above 85 percent. The Nick Foligno-Alex Galchenyuk-William Nylander second line was under 40 percent, although Nylander scored a goal for the second game in a row. Center Pierre Engvall had the most shots on goals (four) of any player who did not score a goal.

Toronto was 12-5-2 during the regular season in away games with one day of rest. The average total in those games was 6.05.

Jack Campbell, who had no NHL playoff goaltending experience prior to this series, has a 1.53 goals-against average and .943 save percentage so far in the series. Campbell has saved 0.20 goals above expected, according to MoneyPuck

The Canadiens will likely have lineup adjustments after scoring just two five-on-five goals in as many games in Toronto. The Nick Suzuki-Tyler Toffoli-Joel Armia line had an xGF% of under 42 percent, with Suzuki failing to record a shot on goal. Rookie forward Cole Caufield, who scored two goals in four regular-season games during Toronto, might draw into the lineup, and Montreal might also need to make changes to help right wing Josh Anderson. Jesperi Kotkaniemi, who was Montreal’s goal scorer on Saturday, was also the team leader in expected goals.

Montreal was 7-6-4 during the regular season in home games with one day of rest. The average total in those games was 5.88.

Carey Price has a 2.60 GAA and .928 save percentage through the series’ first two games. Price has saved 2.49 goals above expected so far in the series, but almost all of that came in the first game of the series on May 20.