Maple Leafs vs Canadiens 05/25/21 – Odds and NHL Betting Trends

The advanced stats suggest the Toronto Maple Leafs are taking control of their playoff series, which makes them a reliable play. The Maple Leafs are -165 away favorites and the Montreal Canadiens are +149 home underdogs with a 5.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Tuesday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com (how sports betting works).

Toronto, which took the series lead with a 2-1 away win on Monday, is 4-2 in its last six games when it played the previous day, with the OVER hitting four times at online sports betting sites. Montreal is 5-8 in its last 13 games on the second night of a back-to-back, with the OVER hitting seven times. The Maple Leafs are 6-6 in their last 12 away games as a favorite of -150 or deeper into minus money, with the total going UNDER six times and finishing in a PUSH twice. The Canadiens are 6-11 in their last 17 home games as an underdog of +125 or more, with an 8-8-1 split on the totals.

The Maple Leafs lead the North Division semifinal series 2-1. Toronto has outscored Montreal 5-3 in the five-on-five phase, and its 61.8 goals-for percentage (GF%), according to Natural Stat Trick, is nearly identical to a 61.5 expected goals-for percentage (xGF%). On the power play, counting playoff and regular-season matchups, the Maple Leafs are eight-for-41 (19.5 percent) and the Canadiens are four-for-31 (12.9). (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)

The final margin was one goal, but Toronto had a complete effort on Monday with a 69.6 GF% and 62.7 xGF% in spite of being without a second top-six forward since Nick Foligno (lower-body injury, day-to-day) sat out along with John Tavares (concussion/knee). The Auston Matthews-Zach Hyman-Mitch Marner line once again controlled play to the count of an xGF% over 65 percent, and the strong work of the Pierre Engvall-Ilya Mikheyev-Wayne Simmonds third line over the past two games makes its members worth considering in anytime scorer props. Concerns about Toronto include its second-line struggles, although William Nylander is on a three-game goal streak.

While playoffs are a different beast from the regular season, shaky goaltending depth in the past has contributed to Toronto being 2-9-1 in its last 12 regular-season away games on no rest, with an average total of 6.08 goals.

Jack Campbell had his best game of the series on Monday, as MoneyPuck credited him with 1.21 goals saved above expected (for a series total of 1.41). Campbell has a 1.35 goals-against average and .951 save percentage so far in the series.

The Canadiens are proving to be a tough out in this series, but they have yet to score more than one five-on-five goal in a game. The offensive woes are a carryover from the regular season, as Montreal has scored only 15 five-on-five goals over their last 12 games at the Bell Centre. That said, The Nick Suzuki-Cole Caufield-Joel Armia line clicked in their debut as a playoff unit on Monday, with Suzuki scoring Montreal’s only goal as they posted a xGF% of over 90 percent that will force Toronto to make adjustments. Right wing Josh Anderson, who led the forward corps with four shots on Monday, is worth consideration for anytime scorer props.

Since 2017-18, the Canadiens are 8-12-3 in regular-season home games on the second night of a back-to-back. The average total in those games was 5.78.

Carey Price, who is confirmed to start back-to-back games, has saved 3.78 goals above expected so far in the series. Price has a 2.42 GAA and .929 save pct. through the series’ first three games.