Maple Leafs vs Canadiens 05/29/21 – Odds and NHL Betting Trends

The Toronto Maple Leafs missed their first chance to close out the Montreal Canadiens, but their strong advanced stats suggest they can find their comfort zone in rival territory in Game 6 of their North Division series. The Maple Leafs are -200 away favorites and the Canadiens are +170 underdogs with a 5.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Saturday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com (how the moneyline works).

The Maple Leafs are 0-5 in their last five playoff games when they had a chance to eliminate their opponent, but are also 5-2 in their last seven games as a favorite on the road against the Canadiens. The total has gone UNDER at sports betting sites in the last four such matchups. Toronto is 8-6 in its last 14 away games as a favorite of -175 or deeper into minus money, with an even 7-7 OVER/UNDER split. Montreal is 5-9 in its last 14 home games as an underdog of +140 or more, with the total going UNDER eight times.

The Maple Leafs lead the best-of-seven series 3-2, and have outscored the Canadiens 10-7 in the five-on-five phase. Toronto has a goals-for percentage (GF%) of 57.5 and an expected goals-for percentage of 57.8 in the series, per Natural Stat Trick. Over the teams’ combined 15 regular-season and playoff games,  the Canadiens are four-for-36 (11.1 percent) on the power play and the Maple Leafs are nine-for-44 (20.5). (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)

The Canadiens had their best five-on-five offensive night in almost two months while staying alive with a 4-3 overtime win at Toronto on Thursday. Their 49.7 xGF%, created largely by the Eric Staal-Corey Perry-Joel Armia line, was their best of the series. That still is not very high, and Montreal has had the clear edge in shot metrics in only four of its last 15 home games at the Bell Centre. The Nick Suzuki-Tyler Toffoli-Cole Caufield line will also need to come up big for Montreal. Josh Anderson was Montreal’s most hard-luck attacker on Thursday with a team-most six shots on goal.

Montreal is 7-11 this season in home games with one day of rest, averaging 2.72 goals for and 3.00 goals against for an average total of 5.72.

Carey Price has a 2.66 goals-against average and .919 save percentage so far in the series. According to MoneyPuck, his 4.7 goals saved above average is third in the NHL playoffs.

The main concern surrounding the Toronto Maple Leafs might be that the two talented scorers on the Auston Matthews-Zach Hyman-Mitch Marner line have each failed to score in their last two games. The Matthews line, per MoneyPuck, did have an xGF% above 65 percent on Thursday despite close attention from Montreal’s Phillip Danault-Tomas Tatar-Brendan Gallagher line. Hyman led Toronto in expected goals, per MoneyPuck, but Toronto’s next four most dangerous forwards – center Alex Kerfoot, right wing William Nylander, Marner and Matthews, in descending order – were all stymied. Kerfoot and Nylander should be seen as value plays in anytime scorer props in the likely event that center John Tavares (concussion/knee) and left wing Nick Foligno (lower-body injury) remain out of the lineup.

Toronto is 13-7 this season in away games with one day’s rest. The Maple Leafs have a 3.25 -2.65 goal differential in those games, for an average total of 5.90.

Jack Campbell has a 1.61 GAA and NHL-best .944 save percentage so far in the playoffs. He is sixth in goals saved above expected with 2.7.