Maple Leafs vs Jets 05/14/21 – Odds and NHL Betting Trends

The Toronto Maple Leafs’ moneyline history might be a red flag in a no-stakes regular-season finale. The Maple Leafs are -165 away favorites and the Winnipeg Jets are +145 home underdogs with a 6.0-goal total on the NHL odds for Friday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com (how the moneyline works).

Toronto is 7-0 in its last seven away games against Winnipeg, with the total finishing UNDER four times at online sports betting sites. The Maple Leafs are, however, just 4-8 in their last 12 games as an away favorite of -145 to -175 on the moneyline. The total has gone UNDER in seven of those matchups with two others ending in a PUSH. The Jets are 4-7 in their last 11 home games as an underdog of +115 or more, with the total finishing UNDER six times.

The Maple Leafs are 6-3 against the Jets, although they have been outscored 17-16 in the five-on-five phase. Toronto, per Natural Stat Trick, has had a sizable edge over Winnipeg in expected goals-for percentage, or xGF% (59.5), scoring-chances share (57.6) and high-danger chances share (61.9). The Maple Leafs are two-for-24 on the power play, while the Jets are six-for-26.  (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)

The Maple Leafs, who are 35-13-7, will begin their best-of-seven North Division semifinal series against the Montreal Canadiens on May 20. The chance of Toronto holding out frontline players might mean that Auston Matthews or Mitch Marner will sit out. Center John Tavares, who is one goal shy of an even 20 on the season, might be worth considering in anytime scorer props. Skilled forwards such as Adam Brooks or Alex Galchenyuk could also be sleepers in this prop if they draw into the lineup. Toronto has had a higher xGF% than its opponent in five out of its last six games.

Since April 14, Toronto is seventh in the 31-team NHL in goals-for percentage (60.8) and fifth in xGF% (59.6). Over this span, the Maple Leafs are sixth in goals per game (3.50) and 12th in goals against (2.67). Their power play ranks 25th (12.1 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 14th (83.3).

Sitting out this game would mean that Jack Campbell, who has a 17-2-2 record with a 2.11 goals-against average and .923 save percentage, would go 11 days without playing before the start of the playoffs.Toronto also has Frederik Andersen back from an injury. Andersen has a 13-8-3 record with a 2.96 GAA and .895 save percentage.

The Jets, who are 29-23-3, tied a season best with five goals in the five-on-five phase during their last outing on Tuesday against the leg-weary Vancouver Canucks. Three tallies came through the Mark Scheifele-Kyle Connor-Blake Wheeler line, who combined for nine points. The Jets, who are just 2-9-0 in their last 11 games and have not defeated a playoff-bound team since April 15, could also rest key players. That might mean increased offensive opportunities for forwards such as Andrew Copp, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Mason Appleton.

Winnipeg is 19th in goals-for percentage (46.9) and 17th in xGF% (48.0) over the last 30 days. During this span, the Jets are 25th in goals per game (2.31) and 17th in goals against (3.00). Their power play ranks 21st (14.3 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 20th (80.0).

Connor Hellebucyk, who is 23-17-3 with a 2.60 GAA and .915 save percentage, will make a tune-up start before the playoffs, according to reports. Hellebucyk is 2-3-2 with a 2.91 GAA and .917 save pct. over eight games this season against Toronto.