Maple Leafs vs Senators 05/12/21 – Odds and NHL Betting Trends

With Frederik Andersen returning from a seven-week absence to start a game where the Toronto Maple Leafs offer scant moneyline value, bettors would be wise to find a trustworthy totals trend. The Toronto Maple Leafs are -190 favorites and the Ottawa Senators are +165 underdogs with a 6.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Wednesday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The Maple Leafs are 3-5 in their last eight away games as a -180 to -240 favorite at betting sites, with the total going UNDER six times. They are 8-3 in their last 11 games against Ottawa as a favorite, with the OVER hitting six times. The Senators are 6-9 over their last 15 games as a home underdog of +150 to +200, with the total finishing UNDER 12 times (how the OVER/UNDER works).

The Maple Leafs are 5-2-1 against the Senators this season, but have outscored them just 22-19 in the five-on-five phase. At full and even strength, Toronto has topped Ottawa in expected goals-for percentage (57.1), scoring-chances share (56.1) and high-danger chances share (57.1). The Maple Leafs are six-for-21 on the power play (with three shorthanded goals against) and the Senators are three-for-26. (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)

The Maple Leafs, who are 35-13-6, have an outside chance of finishing first overall and earning home-ice advantage throughout the Stanley Cup playoffs. At practice Tuesday, Auston Matthews skated with wings Zach Hyman and Mitch Marner, while Toronto also showed a John Tavares-Nick Foligno-William Nylander (center-left-right) second line. The Maple Leafs have had the edge in xGF% in 10 consecutive games, per Natural Stat Trick. Matthews has nine goals in eight games against Ottawa this season. Toronto, which has been off since May 8, is 6-1-0 in its last seven away games with three or more days of rest; they have averaged 4.29 goals in those matchups while allowing 2.86 per game.

Since April 12, Toronto is fourth in the 31-team NHL in both goals-for percentage (61.0) and in xGF% (58.9). The Maple Leafs, over this span, are eighth in goals per game (3.31). Their power play (9.4 percent) and their penalty killing (76.7) both rank 27th.

Andersen, who has a 13-8-2 record with a 2.91 goals-against average and .897 save percentage, will make his first NHL start since March 19. Andersen had a 3.77 GAA and .885 save pct. over two recent tune-up starts with the American Hockey League’s Toronto Marlies. He is also 1-2-1 with a 3.67 GAA and .874 save pct. in four games this season against Ottawa.

The Senators, who are 22-28-5 entering their season finale, have played respectably of late. Ottawa, led by the Josh Norris-Brady Tkachuk-Drake Batherson and Colin White-Nick Paul-Evgenii Dadonov lines, has had the xGF% edge in seven of its last nine games. (The Senators did not face Toronto or second-place Edmonton in this stretch.) Tkachuk is coming off a six-shot game on Sunday and also has a team-most 34 shots against Toronto this season. Batherson (team-most five goals against Toronto) and left wing Tim Stützle (three goals vs. Toronto) stand out as plays in anytime scorer props. Ottawa, whose last outing was on Sunday, is 2-3-3 in its last eight home games with two days of rest, with an average of 2.63 goals scored and 3.63 against.

Ottawa is ninth in goals-for percentage (59.1) and 15th in xGF% (50.6) over the past 30 days. Over this span, the Senators are ninth in goals per game (3.15) and fourth in goals against (2.15). Their power play ranks 13th (18.0 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 11th (87.5).

Rookie goalie Filip Gustavsson, who is 4-1-2 with a 2.04 GAA and .937 save percentage, will face Toronto for the first time in his career. He has allowed two or fewer goals in four of his last six starts.