Monday Mailbag: Is Auston Broken?

Things are rosy in Leafs land right now.  The sun is shining, snowfall’s just around the corner, there’s a newfound energy around this young Leafs team, and everyone is happy!

Wait, actually, no they’re not.

Not only have the Leafs dropped a bunch of games over the past few weeks after a hot start, they’ve also perhaps lost their best player for tonight’s game against a Vegas Golden Knights team who keeps… finding ways to win, somehow.

The panic is setting in… and here we are, to answer your questions today.

Good question, confused goalie man.

For now? McElhinney stays. He’s only played two games so far, and while they haven’t been great games, and while McElhinney isn’t really all that great of a goalie, (and either Pickard or Sparks could probably outplay him), he’s still with the big club.

The Marlies have played 12 games so far, which probably doesn’t really tell you all that much about a goalie. For what it’s worth, Garret Sparks has played better, but we know a .943 save percentage isn’t going to last forever.

Here’s what we got in the AHL right now (Kaskisuo is currently in the ECHL).

If you want a yes or no answer, the answer is yes. At least, that’s what you should be betting on. Despite Toronto’s struggles, we’ve still got Detroit, Montreal, Florida, Boston, and… Buffalo in the Atlantic. As long as Toronto’s goaltending normalizes, they really shouldn’t have any trouble hitting the 95-point threshold. After that… it’s anyone’s ballgame.

Auston Matthews went off the ice early at practice today, and the supposed reason was “soreness”.

Things happen over the course of an 82-game season, including many, many “playable injuries”. He’s a tough kid, as you’ve probably worked out. Maybe Auston just wanted a rest. But since this is Toronto, it’s time to freak out.

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH AUSTON. RECOVER!

A little bit later, and then there was this from Sportsnet’s Shawn McKenzie:

Let’s just hope he’s okay… even if it means missing a game. But as long as it’s nothing to worry about in the long run… maybe we’ll get the rare treat* of seeing the Leafs without Matthews for one night!

*not actually a treat

We don’t really know if this was a serious question, but let’s hope not. No, he was not traded.

If Auston Matthews ever gets shipped out of Toronto, move the team immediately.

Ah, more Matthews content! Do you think people are worried yet?

In this hypothetical world, the Leafs are a top-six of probably Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Nazem Kadri, Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk, and Patrick Marleau. If they’re firing on all cylinders, even without Matthews, that’s still a heck of an offence.

However, they’d need to start clicking, as the team’s slowed down a little of late. If the Leafs didn’t have Matthews, they’d probably be somewhere in the middle of the pack, both personnel and performance-wise. It’s hard to give a hard number and say “they’d go 10-7-2” or something like that because hockey is a fickle sport, but the Leafs are much more than just Auston Matthews, despite all the value that he adds. Even if Matthews didn’t score a single goal all season (he’s got 10), the Leafs would still be 11th in the league in scoring.

But hopefully, that’s not a question we have to answer for a while now.

Ethan Bear was a fifth-round pick of the Edmonton Oilers in 2015, is a 20-year old currently playing in Bakersfield in the AHL, and yet to crack an NHL roster. I’m not really sure why he was the player singled out here, but I’m going to go with no. Is Ethan Bear an NHL player in the future? Maybe? Are his junior stats good for a defenceman? Sure, but his best years came after his draft year, which is always a bit of a red flag.

There’s a few layers to this question.

Which winger? JVR? No, that would be crazy, he’s a far better player, even if his contract is expiring. Connor Brown? Locked up for four years. Hyman? Same deal. Marleau? Yeah…. probably not. Leo Komarov? Would Edmonton really want ANOTHER crash and bang guy? (Maybe they would, but I don’t really see the upside in that deal for them).

Or are we talking lower-end wingers? Kasperi Kapanen? His value’s likely higher than that. Matt Martin? Ok, no one is trading for Matt Martin.

Josh Leivo…???

You keep going down the list, and you find more reasons why this trade doesn’t make any sense rather than why it does. At the end of the day, Ethan Bear is not a player in the NHL for either Toronto or Edmonton right now and it would be a depth addition rather than a immediate help.

Is he good enough to be worth one of Toronto’s wingers? Sure, maybe. Does it make sense? Not really, the Leafs have other options in the system (Dermott, Nielsen, Liljegren) and he’d just be another piece in the system. I’m gonna say Toronto passes on this one.

That’s a tough question, but I think it’s an overblown one.

The Leafs are making mistakes, yes. It’s easy to point to any specific d-zone play and look at it as an example of poor structure. These kind of errors happen over and over again on plays we’ll forget about immediately because they ended up in a save. They look at lot worse when the puck goes in.

At 5v5, the Leafs are 13th in the league in Corsi Against/60, 5th in expected goal +/- and 9th in Corsi For %. They’re really just not uh… saving the puck. Are there improvements to be made? Assignments missed? Always, hockey is an imperfect game and the Leafs are an imperfect team. But when it comes to the rest of the league, the Leafs are playing just fine defensively.

If Frederik Andersen makes more saves, the Leafs structure concerns go away. It really is as simple as that.