Ryan Kesler vs Phil Kessel: Contract Value and the Ghost of Dave Nonis

*Note to the reader: I realize that Ryan Kesler has never been a Toronto Maple Leaf, Phil Kessel is no longer a Toronto Maple Leaf, and none of us want to hear Dave Nonis’ name ever again here in Leafland. I’m not sorry for writing this anyway.*

On a day where Cody Franson is still unfairly unsigned and gifs of Lawson Crouse eating a worm crept into my timeline while I was trying to eat breakfast, it seems pretty logical that the Anaheim Ducks decided to add to the morning mayhem with a headline contract of their own:

Oh boy, Anaheim. 

In all fairness to Ryan Kesler, he’s been a twenty-plus goal scorer nearly every season since 2007. The one year he fell short on twenty goals was in 2012-2013, and that was both a lockout-shortened year and an injury-shortened year for Kesler himself due to a myriad of injuries. 

He’s also one of the toughest skaters to play against for the same reason that Corey Perry is an absolute nightmare for the opposition – he’s annoying, he’s chirpy, and he still manages to be good at what he does. It’s one thing to get mouthy with the other team when you’re a bottom six grinder looking to draw a penalty, but it’s another thing entirely when a top six goal scorer gets in the face of his opponents and rattles them en route to yet another puck finding the back of the net. 

Still, Ryan Kesler hasn’t hit fifty points in a single season since Vancouver’s infamous 2010-2011 campaign, where they went down to the wire against the Boston Bruins in the Stanley Cup Final and very nearly became champions themselves. Since then, Kesler has been on a slight but noticeable decline — he’s dropped off a bit in scoring, and his possession stats have been good (but not great). He’s not a Selke candidate anymore, by a long shot.

Since Dave Nonis just hopped on board as a special advisor (or something equally ridiculous and showboat-y) with Bob Murray over in Anaheim, seeing Kesler ink a deal that will pay him just south of $6.9M AAV until he’s thirty-seven — making him currently the third highest paid skater in the 2016-2017 season on Anaheim’s roster — is all too familiar for Leafs fans. 

Immediately, Twitter went nuts comparing the Kesler contract to that of another American-born skater whose last name starts with a ‘K’ and has never won a Stanley Cup.

On the surface, it seems like these are two comparable contracts – but while they’re both particularly Dave Nonis-y (especially given that the Ducks also made a rapidly regressing Kevin Bieksa their highest-paid defenseman for the next three years), it’s actually very hard to compare the two. 

Last September, our good friends over at Canucks Army took a look at whether Ryan Kesler still deserves the hype surrounding his reported value following some not-so-excellent final seasons in Vancouver. The bottom line is that no, he probably doesn’t – but he is still a good possession driver, especially when pitted against some of the league’s toughest competition. 

When looking at it that way, this seems like a reasonable contract. In theory, the Ducks locked up a top six centre with good possession value against the vast majority of the league’s top-nine competition, giving them a solid option with considerable offensive upside for what we can assume will be the next three to four years. 

With the retained salary the Leafs are holding, though, the Penguins are also likely getting reasonable value for Kessel with his $6.8M AAV modified cap hit – while he clearly doesn’t have anywhere close to the impact on shutting down opponents and eliminating scoring chances that Kesler does, he more than makes up for that with the scoring chances Kessel creates for his own teammates and himself. Once again, the Penguins theoretically have one of the league’s best pure goal scorers locked in to provide elite scoring for what we can assume will be the next three to four years.

As a Toronto fan, it’s easy to rant about the Phil Kessel deal – and now that someone else is dealing with it (and seemingly excited about it), it’s easy to get bogged down by a debate of Kessel vs. Kesler. Is Kesler being overpaid to probably lose 90% of his value with the rapid play declination of a prototypical power forward? Is Kessel overpaid for someone who hates the coaches and eats too many hot dogs? Are they both overpaid? 

In conclusion: three or four years down the road, yes, they’re both going to be overpaid. They’ll have contracts that look about as bloated as the Patrick Sharp contract, and that’s a best case scenario – worst case, we’ll get to deal with another Mike Richards fiasco or they’ll get bought out. 

For now, though, I think fellow TLN writer Bobby Cappuccino put it best: