Should the Leafs start leaning on their stars more heavily?

Photo Credit: Raj Mehta/USA TODAY SPORTS

We’ve written countless words on why the Leafs have taken a bigger-than-expected leap in their climb to contention this season, and there will continue to be plenty of pieces digging into why that is. But the simplest catch-all answer is just that the rookies have been far more NHL-ready than advertised, and that’s elevated what was left of the existing core. 

Mike Babcock relies heavily on players like Matthews, Marner, and Nylander to generate offence, along with givin plenty of penalty-killing responsibilities for guys like Brown, Soshnikov, and Hyman. How they’ve responded – with huge point totals, rock solid special teams, and good underlying numbers for the most part – has been nothing short of mindblowing for a fanbase that’s been hurting like this one has. 

But now that the Leafs find themselves in what will be a serious grind for one of those last couple playoff spots in the east, is it time to turn up the dial on a few of these guys? Sure, these rookies have been pouring in the goals and racking up exciting wins to this point, but you could argue there’s still another gear to hit yet, and Babcock can run those horses harder if need be. 

As things currently stand, Auston Matthews earns the most ice time of any Leafs forward this season, averaging 17:43 per game. That doesn’t seem like very much, because it isn’t, really. In terms of workload, Babcock has relied on Matthews and the other core guys much less than Carlyle did in years past. 

In fact, here’s how the top forwards for the Leafs have seen their ice-time divvied up since 2010:

Not only does Matthews not make this top-ten list, he isn’t even in the top 20. He’s 22nd. I mean, compared to the ice that trio of Kessel-Bozak-JVR was being fed in 2014, Matthews is averaging three fewer minutes per night. A huge drop-off.

But we can obviously understand see why this would be the case. The Leafs don’t want to send these kids, some of whom have never played close to 82 games in a season, into waters too deep. That could be seen as rushing the Shanaplan, and they won’t do that.

Still, you have to wonder if the lines Babcock has put together on the heels of a bad loss this past Tuesday signal somewhat of a shift as things move forward in this second-half stretch. Perhaps the coaching staff is starting to feel the top performers in this group are ready for more. 

Now, obviously that isn’t a massive shake-up, but it does look a bit more like a top-six/bottom-six setup than Babcock was rolling out there previously. With that third line weakened defensively as Kadri “moves up” to play higher-end skill guys, and Nylander gets his spot alongside Matthews back, we could (or, should) see these top two lines play heavier minutes, somewhat abandoning the top-nine look we’ve seen before. 

And though the fourth unit this season is something far better than we’re used to seeing in the Nonis and Burke days, there are minutes to be cut there as well, if needed. The face-puncher lines with Orr and McLaren often averaged somewhere around 4-6 minutes per night, while this year’s trio is closer to 11. It obviously helps that now these are depth players that can actually kill penalties, but still, the fourth line these days gets far more even-strength minutes as well. They can be rolled back a bit.

It’s tough to say whether we’ll see a major uptick in ice-time for a lot of these guys who make up the most skill in the lineup, now making up the top two lines, as there’s obviously the big picture factoring in here with how this staff makes these decisions, especially with the youngsters. But even when we take a quick look at a veteran like Van Riemsdyk, his production this season is almost even more impressive given his 15:53 ice-time per night, a far cry from that 21+ he averaged on that Kessel line. Maybe there are injury concerns there. In either case, that’s all fine and good. But should the standings remain tight and the potential for playoffs get closer to reality, it appears the Leafs have left themselves in a position to tap into some fuel in reserve if needed. That’s even better.