Should the Leafs target John Carlson this summer?
6 years ago
This summer all the free agency talk should be about John Tavares, provided he does not sign a new deal in Brooklyn. But the player I am more excited about is Washington Capitals defenseman John Carlson.
The Caps are in a salary cap nightmare. They have spent $62 million on 14 players next season – meaning they have maybe $15 million to spend on eight players! Something has to give – John Carlson is up for renewal as an UFA this summer and I can’t see how the Caps can afford to sign him without trading one of their other star players.
So let’s presume that Carlson makes it to July 1st unsigned because the Caps can’t afford him. A top four right handed defenseman is on the market. A player who has scored 45 points this season and would nicely solidify the Leafs d-corps.
Can we afford him?
If you check out NHLnumbers.com, it is possible that the Leafs can sign him. Presuming that Tyler Bozak,JVR and Leo leave this summer and the salary cap rises to, say, $77.5 million then the Buds stand to have around just under $32 million in cap space.
The Buds are also likely to trade Matt Martin before then, which gives them another $2.25 million to play with if they can pull it off.
Therefore, there is $34 million to spend on eight players this summer. Obviously it is important to consider that Matthews, Marner and Nylander will all be signing new deals within a year of July 1st, 2018. I should not really speculate on their contracts but I will. I suspect that Nylander and Marner will sign similar deals to David Pastrnak at Boston – $6.66 million over six years.
Matthews will no doubt come at the $10 million mark at a minimum. Therefore we have the big three signed at around $23 million.
So by my reckoning, we will have around $11 million to realistically play with in regards to long term contracts this summer. The Leafs have built up some impressive depth that will need to fill out the rest of the roster – something I believe they will do.
So can we afford him then?
I would say yes. When you are a team that has aspirations to be contenders then you need to make bold moves. Carlson is 28 and has probably five more years of being a elite defenseman. He would 100% make the team better and give the team a chance to be a true contender.
Carlson has the potential to be a Norris winning d-man and his point outpoint would undoubtedly remain high if he was playing with the attacking talent that the Leafs possess.
Leafs management should make a bold move this summer and John Carlson could well be their best option.
Imagine a top four of Rielly, Carlson, Gardiner and Zaitsev. It would truly give us the ability to be contenders.
What do you think? Would Carlson be a smart signing?
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