The Case for Peter Holland

If you asked me in the preseason which Leaf I figured I
would be writing off first, I probably would have said Richard Panik. If you
asked me for a second name, I probably would have said Peter Holland.

I have to say that no that the Leafs are essentially one
tenth of the way through the season, I am now singing a different tune on Peter
Holland, and am I now beginning to think he is being underutilized.

Already scratched once this season, it appears with Bozak
returning to the lineup it could be the second time in the press box for Peter
Holland this season or possibly it could be the end of Holland all together now
that Byron Froese has earned the trust of Mike Babcock over Holland and
Arcobello. This is an unfortunate thing to happen considering that the 24 year
old is one of the few players on the Leafs roster that could potentially be
considered worth hanging onto beyond this season and through the pisspoor
management of the Nonis regime, cost the Leafs a second round draft pick.

Peter Holland’s lack of appearances on the score sheet are
certainly part of his undoing, but he hasn’t been helped by his lack of ice
time or the equally slow starts of his most frequent linemates as Grabner,
Parenteau, and Arcobello are all trapped at 2 points or less. Holland remains
pointless at even strength, sitting at an on ice shooting percentage of 2.9%.

Given the Leafs lack of depth at center it’s interesting
that four times Holland has had the least amount of ice time at center in the
games he’s dressed and three times he’s had the third most ice time, once aided
by Bozak’s injury and the other two times Arcobello received less ice time. In
the two games since Froese has been recalled, Holland has been scratched for
Froese, and had less ice time than him.

So on the surface it seems like the organization isn’t
overly committed to the idea of exploring the possibilities of Peter Holland at
the moment, and considering a month ago that seemed like something that could
reasonably happen, why is it bothering me now?

Well. It’s because when Holland’s numbers show he’s actually
been pretty good and players are doing pretty well with him.

With the exception of Leo Komarov, every forward who has
played at least 12 even strength minutes with Holland has had better
possessions numbers with him than apart. In fact, the only player on the Leafs
that Holland has a negative CF% and has played more than 4 minutes with this
season is Morgan Rielly, who when they are on together have 35% Offensive Zone
Starts.

When it comparing Holland to the other forwards
there are three worse forwards for offensive zone starts, and that’s the line
of Joffrey Lupul, Nick Spaling, and Daniel Winnik, all three are under 40 while
Holland sits at 42% (this is not including Froese who currently sits at 40
through 2 games). The Spaling line not surprisingly are the three worst CF%
forwards on the team, while Holland sits at 56.31%.
the third most ice time, once aided
by Bozak’s injury and the other two times Arcobello received less ice time. In
the two games since Froese has been recalled, Holland has been scratched for
Froese, and had less ice time than him.

The interesting things about Holland, especially compared to the other forwards with higher defensive zone starts is how low event he is. Immediately my reaction is that he’s been incredibly sheltered, and that still could be the case, but what is confusing me about that notion is that he has been playing in tougher situations on the road when the Leafs would have less control over who he lines up against, and his corsi events are significantly lower in that situation as well. While Spaling and Winnik have unquestionably been drawing the toughest assignments (i.e. going up against Kessel and Crosby), Holland at the very least has been going up against players you would want on the ice in a scoring situation and he has shut them down so far. 

He’s currently sitting at the unsustainable on ice save percentage of 100%, which is about as likely to last as his on ice shooting percentage of 2.9%, but he’s at least establishing himself as a low risk bottom six option which isn’t a horrible thing for the Leafs to have.

The nice thing about viewing film of Peter Holland is that there hasn’t been that much, and when he’s actually been on the ice there have been even fewer events. Certainly through years of watching Carlyle beat up on Jake Gardiner we know it’s possible to pick out unfortunate moments to use as learning opportunities. Also, while I would love to see Peter Holland get a chance to show what he can do with increased ice time he hasn’t really done anything that makes it hard not to give it to him. 

Holland’s low risk/low event game is exactly what I would have begged for the Leafs to have in the past few seasons when it seemed that every shift was a shelling, and having a guy who can step on the ice for 40 seconds, give you forgettable hockey, but keep the score the same seemed like a pretty good deal.

It seems the standard is slightly different for Holland. If in fact Babcock wants him to develop into the offensive top six center Holland was drafted to be, he’s absolutely right to scratch him and be disappointed with the results. If being a solid possession player who keeps the bottom six forward group from being a pit of despair is acceptable, I don’t know why we haven’t been seeing more of Holland.

The one thing I do know for certain is that as the Leafs get healthy, and the Holland is increasingly in the press box, he will be at increased risk for being exposed to waivers. And if you put a center who only costs $775k and has a CF% of 56.31 on waivers, you’ll lose him. Teams are claiming Bobby Farnham, someone with actual NHL talent isn’t going to make it past the first team eligible.