The things Phil Kessel can’t be

What shocks me the most about living in Toronto is the way people view Phil Kessel. I’ve gone on about this topic before in this space. Basically, Kessel’s portrayal in the Toronto media borders on unfair, but the reality of the situation is that Kessel isn’t a play-driving, two-way winger and his line needs a centreman to improve its defensive play.

I’ve also wondered aloud on occasion as to whether a winger exists at the NHL-level that can score a high number of goals and be good enough defensively, to be the sort of player that Toronto fans expect. I found one after a search.

In the last four seasons, there have been 17 wingers who were Top Five among wingers in goal-scoring. I included ties. There are four who match this description multiple times: Alex Ovechkin, Ilya Kovalchuk, Marian Gaborik, and Corey Perry.

Out of these 17 players spread across 23 player seasons, I went to Behind The Net and checked underlying numbers to measure their defensive play to determine there was such a thing as a consistently high-scoring, play-driving, defensively-oriented scoring winger:

Here’s the big list. [This is the meat. Skip to the conclusion below the charts if numbers aren’t your thing]

Kessel’s 2012 season is below average in this group. He was tied for fifth among wingers in scoring, but his relative Corsi, a shot-differential metric, wasn’t exceptionally high. A lot of scoring wingers, playing favourable offensive minutes with a high offensive zone start rate [Ozone%], generate very high Relative Corsi numbers.

There are some exceptions on the list. Using some discretion, I filtered out the players who I judged to be good defensively, based on a combination of their puck-possession metrics, quality of competition [Corsi Rel QoC] and offensive zone start rate.

From this angle, things look a bit neater. These players faced a little stronger defensive situations, and I filtered out those who did less than tread water. Kessel’s 2012 season is removed. But so are a lot of other seasons.

Scott Hartnell and Corey Perry were the only two wingers that matched the description that people expect out of Kessel this year: high-scoring, and drove play in tough situations. A quick WOWY check showed that they were symbiont with their respective centremen, Claude Giroux and Ryan Getzlaf, rather than anchors or backpackers.

Perry is the only player who has done it consistently, however. Now that Ovechkin has tailored off, he’s still elite, mind you, but his formerly dominant goal totals now merely great, is Corey Perry the new elite winger in the NHL? It appears that he’s a cut above, eating some tough minutes in Anaheim and also managing to score 87 goals over the last two seasons.

And even then, Perry doesn’t have an ability to lead his team to the playoffs every season. The Leafs tied the Ducks in points with 80, and won one more game.

I’m worried that the Toronto market expects too much out of Phil Kessel. No scoring winger is God, as it seems. My method is very quick and amateurish, I’ll admit, but you can’t clearly state that there are a whole pack of elite wingers who are consistently in a higher tier. Centremen, not wingers, have the major responsibility on a hockey team.

More importantly, the team is important. Teams make the playoffs and win Stanley Cups, not players. There are several terrific hockey players on bad teams, Perry being one of them, who are forced to sit out in the playoffs for many reasons. These Toronto Maple Leafs are a top centreman, top defenceman and top goaltender away from competing. Kessel can’t do all these things at once. He did his job, scoring goals, last season. It’s up to the rest of the team, whoever is on it, to do the rest.