The “what ifs” in this supposed Dubas vs Babcock fiasco

In case you haven’t heard, Mike Babcock and Kyle Dubas are not on the same page. Or something.

Maybe all of this talk about the team’s off-ice problems are completely made up for clicks, or perhaps this team is actually at a more critical moment than most of us believe.

Personally I think things are somewhere in the middle; There are some disagreements over how the team is being run from both sides, there is tension, but the media (or even sites like this and people like me) will gladly weigh in and try to figure it out and put their spin on it.

Anyway, where is this all stemming from, you ask? Well, given the team has been in a hole the last couple weeks, there was a dark cloud circling on its own, but then some quotes got people’s attention and raised concerns of a rift between Babcock and management.

From 31 Thoughts after Toronto’s 3-0 shutout loss to Nashville (where the Leafs played pretty well in fact), Babcock had this to say:

This quote was seen as a shot across the bow of management, suggesting Babcock believes they haven’t done enough to give him a chance to win. Of course this sent people into a frenzy of opinions like “How can he say that when he plays veterans like Hainsey and Marleau over skilled young players?” Both sides of that argument aren’t 100-percent wrong.

But aside from the team’s general make-up and speculation over their philosophies, where exactly have Babcock and Dubas been at odds this season?

These are all reasonable and somewhat expected disagreements, but do they really warrant serious talk about firing Babcock? And if somehow that nuclear option did happen after this season, who can step in and take over a contender in the most absurd market in hockey? It has to be an established option like Joel Quenneville, no? And if it is someone like him, do we even know what’s to gain there? Would a sixty-year-old like ‘Q’ do things so differently than Babcock?

Maybe I should have paid more attention to those good Hawks teams, because I have no idea. I do know one thing though…

There’s a segment of Leafs supporters constantly campaigning for Marlies coach Sheldon Keefe to take over the reins of the big club as soon as possible. Given Dubas’s long history with Keefe, this idea makes a lot of sense when it comes to having the general manager and coach on the same page, but I’d be floored if Toronto made that switch in the near future.

Keefe might turn out to be a great NHL coach, and his success at the other levels suggests he can be. But Dubas firing arguably the most popular coach in Canadian history to plunk an unproven in the seat right away would be a monster risk for his own career.

In this world of ‘what ifs’, picture this: Toronto fizzles a bit down the stretch here and goes out to the Bruins in the first round. Babcock and Dubas have a falling out and the head coach is fired. Keefe is his replacement and then next year the Leafs’ results don’t improve much, they get 105 points or so and take on a good team like the Bruins or Lightning early in the playoffs, again. If Toronto loses that series, no matter how close, Dubas is then on the block to be fired because he decided to pay Mike Babcock millions of dollars to go away and replaced him with someone who couldn’t move the needle any further ahead. To fire Babcock in favour of Keefe right now is to risk the whole house coming down within a couple years. And while Dubas seems to be willing to be bold to see his vision of the team become reality, I don’t think he’s that bold.

There’s this radical idea that, you know, Babcock just sticks around and all these personalities in management and the coaching staff earn their money and figure things out. Babcock is rightfully criticized for over-use of veterans and the like, but let’s keep in mind we’re arguing about things like the margins around Justin Holl vs. Ron Hainsey — it isn’t like he’s out there spiking the season to prove a point. Toronto’s personnel on the back end is not good, full stop.

Perhaps putting too much emphasis on handedness and experience are Babcock’s weak areas, but that isn’t anything catastrophic in terms of a divide in philosophy, and there are things management can do this summer to make it so these battles of which fringe NHLer should be playing more are doused. I mean, it seems like even the players themselves aren’t exactly enthusiastic about playing their off-hand side, so it isn’t that Babcock is just making up issues. Management needs to try like hell to move out dead weight this summer, make a priority of shoring up things on the right side, and go from there. If coaching does seem like a glaring issue after that, well, the hot seat will totally be warranted.

In the meantime, while this overall Babcock vs. Dubas situation does seem somewhat real, without question it at least partially stems from a fear of what’s going to happen against the Bruins next month. That goes from management to coaching, all the way down to the fans buying the tickets. Win four games there and we’ll see how the tone of the conversation changes.