This Year’s Model: Are This Year’s Leafs Mirroring Last Year’s Sabres?

Photo Credit: Kevin Hoffman/USA TODAY SPORTS

Last summer, I began to talk myself into the Buffalo Sabres, if not making the Eastern Conference playoffs, at least being in that conversation for a good chunk of the season.  Yeah, yeah, 30th place team (two years in a row, actually), and if anything, their impending issues didn’t show enough in the 48-game shortened season of 2013, where they were a point-per-game team finishing with 48 points exactly.  

Yes, a year ago at this time, I had talked myself into numerous “best-case” scenarios for the 2014-15 Sabres.  A terrible team, to be sure, for years previous; having won 24 games in regulation time over the prior 164 NHL contests.  But there were additions, and maybe more talent was added to the Sabres than this current offseason for the Maple Leafs.  We’ll see if you agree by the time we’re done here.

The Sabres were getting the following:

The season prior, Lehner ranked 46th of 54 eligible goalies in 5v5 save percentage (750 minutes played minimum) with a mark of .908.  The league average in 2014-15 was .925.  He’s not even an average goalie, and using my eyes, as well as statistics (because you should), nothing’s changed that perception.

So all that said, what happened?  Well, Lehner proved skeptics like me neither right nor wrong early in the season, given he suffered a high ankle sprain in his Sabres debut — a 3-1 defeat to, yes, exactly, Ottawa.

If anything, backup Chad Johnson impressed far more than anyone could have anticipated, having a much better statistical season (advanced and otherwise) for the Sabres than he had in pure backup duty with the Islanders.

The Sabres after a 2-6-0 start rallied and won six of their next eight, to find themselves with 16 points in 16 games heading into mid-November.  Unfortunately, they hit a stretch, saddled by some injuries, and lost six straight (getting 2 of a possible 12 points), scoring only seven goals in the six contests.  Two more three-game losing streaks in December pretty much cemented that the gap would be too considerable, the Sabres smartly sold assets at the Trade Deadline (Mike Weber and Jamie McGinn), and finished 14th in the 16-team East, ahead of only Columbus and Toronto.

Now, few deny that the Sabres have bright days ahead of them. The assets seem to be there, there haven’t been disastrous trades or draft picks in the post-Regier era, and they rarely have let a veteran player in a non-playoff season finish with the club. Instead, they sell that player off from a position of strength, generating multiple bids for players like Ryan Miller, Robyn Regehr, Jason Pominville, Matt Moulson, and Thomas Vanek a particular deal where they made hte Islanders look silly before they re-sold him months later.

But, last year’s Sabres impressed many — it’s not easy to ask a team for a 27-point improvement, regardless of how awful they were the season before, but going from 54 to 81 points looks good on paper — making the next jump becomes harder than that.

But there are massive questions for certain:

I’m not sure the Leafs enter this season with the assets Buffalo did last year, though I do think getting 58-62 games from Freddie Andersen will give the Leafs as consistent goaltending as the Sabres got last season.   My fear for the Sabres is Lehner this year won’t be nearly as good as Johnson was last year, on many nights.  

Goal-scoring for the Leafs?  Well, I might be too skeptical, but they’ll be tough to come by — and asking for a 40 goal increase like the Sabres had isn’t realistic (Buffalo went from 161 to 201 in goals scored and shaved their goals against from a horrific 274 in 14-15 to 222 last year).  The Sabres were 16th in team goals-against at 2.62, ahead of all seven Canadian teams, none of whom were lower than the 2.84 Montreal posted (good enough, well, lousy enough for 21st of 30 teams).  

There are more similarities than differences between the organizations.  Both teams had considerable early-21st Century success.  Lots of playoff round wins, and splendid goaltending, from Hasek and Miller in Buffalo, to Joseph and Belfour in Toronto.  It’s actually surprising the teams only met the one time in the playoffs (the 1999 Eastern Conference Finals. But Buffalo needed a revamp after missing the playoffs three straight seasons, and after the lockout season, few teams were as well-built under the new salary cap rules, and as such, the Sabres surprised few in going to back-to-back Eastern Conference Finals.  

Buffalo tore things down a couple of years ago in proper fashion.  Does it guarantee success?  Certainly not — for all the love the New York Islanders get, they just this past season won a playoff round since drafting John Tavares in 2009.  For the Blackhawks and Penguins who bottom out and then become league powerhouses, we already know all about the Blue Jackets, Thrashers/Jets, and, obviously, Oilers teams that don’t ever come close.  

Expecting a year similar to what Buffalo had last year is sensible for Maple Leafs’ supporters.  81 points?  Adding a couple of 2nd or 3rd-round picks on Trade Deadline Day?  Healthy and modestly productive seasons for Matthews, Nylander, and potentially, Marner?  Drafting 8th overall and adding another part for the short-term future?  Finding out the team and fanbase like Andersen enough that he’s the most entrenched starter the team has truly had since Ed Belfour’s second-last season?  I think all of those things happening make for an incredibly positive season.

We know early-season Maple Leafs winning streaks will fan the flames of “playoff talk”.  I get that, yes, and teams less-skilled, less well-coached, and spending less money on salary make the playoffs every single season in the NHL.  

I like what Buffalo has done.  They finally had enough of their mediocrity a few seasons ago and, approve or not, did something about it.  Teams in Detroit and Boston haven’t had those revelations yet, and there’s a day not too far down the road when the Sabres and Leafs likely use their yearly collection of Red Wings and Bruins matchups for target practice.

But, like you, I reserve the right to change my mind.  I think we already know Sabres fans should be demanding a team that gets more than 81 points and at least stays in playoff contention for longer.  I believe that we’re exactly a year away from asking such in Toronto.