TLN Roundtable: Bold Predictions
6 years ago
We’re feeling like some hot takes at the TLN office, so it’s time to let them loose.
With the NHL season just around the corner, we asked our writers for their bold predictions for this upcoming season. Most are about the Leafs, but a couple are about the league as a whole.
What’s your bold prediction heading into the season?
Jon Steitzer
North Korea will be invaded.
It will postpone the Olympics for a year.
The NHL will go.
Sam Blazer
One or more of the big three will get injured, and the season with so much hype will have to pump the brakes a bit. The Leafs will still make the playoffs, and they will put up a fight, but Stanley Cup talk is too much.
Scott Maxwell
My bold prediction this season is that Matthews will see a decrease in production. Not to say that he won’t improve, but I think it will more come from his defensive ability. I don’t see Matthews scoring 70+ in his sophomore year, but I think he’ll have a 30 goal, 35 assist season (or something in that range), and become a much better two-way forward.
Brayden Engel
My bold prediction is this season will surpass the hype, like last year’s did. Everything good that everyone expects to happen will in fact happen, and the Leafs will be awarded two Stanley Cups as a result.
Ryan Fancey
My bold prediction is Nylander is top five in points league-wide. Which isn’t even bold really.
Ian Tulloch
Zach Hyman will score 20 goals this season. I’ll take a moment to let you spit out your drink…great, now let my explain why this crazy assertion might not be so crazy. Hyman generated a ton of chances last year. Based on shot location data, we would’ve expected Hyman to score about 13 even strength goals last year based on the shots he was generating (link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10kUcyJiLHNUvh7a6oMnlhGopSlQjJ8Zs0xfgvbXp7e0/edit#gid=457552015). He only scored 6. Keep in mind that this model takes shooter history into account – it’s not expecting him to go bar down from the top of the circle.
Nazem Kadri had a similar issue in 2015-2016. He was expected to score significantly more goals than he actually did, but ran into a horrible stretch of shooting luck. The next year, his Sh% bounced back and he went on to score over 30 goals. Now, I’m not suggesting that Hyman’s going to do the same thing, but the logic is similar. If his shooting luck regresses to the mean, and he’s able to generate the same chances he did last year (which is likely if he’s playing on a line with Matthews and Nylander), I think it’s fair to anticipate him scoring 13 even strength goals. Throw in 3 on the penalty kill, which is entirely reasonable, and you only need 4 more goals to get to 20. If Hyman gets any extended period of time as the net-front presence on the Leafs’ PP (which was 2nd in the year last year), I think he can hit 4 no problem. Is this a likely scenario? Absolutely not, but it’s within the realm of possibility.
Zach Hyman, 20-goal scorer. You heard it here first.
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