TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #12 Brendan Leipsic

7 years ago

I feel Brendan Leipsic is one of the most overlooked prospects within the Maple Leafs’ development system. It’s a simple case, really. Leipsic is one of a plethora of under-6’0″ wingers that the Leafs have ownership of. It’s not hard to lower your expectations of him when there isn’t that much pressure for him to succeed. Not everyone can get an NHL job and so if it’s one of the other small wingers instead of Leipsic, no one will be upset.

But it’s important to pay attention to Leipsic, as he brings a lot of tools to the game that maybe the others do not. I sincerely believe that, if given an opportunity, he’ll have a successful first NHL season next year.

The Votes

Jeff	Ryan H.	Shawn	Ryan F.	Adam	Dom	Jess	Katy	Readers
8	9	11	12	12	9	13	N/R	12

Leipsic was placed 9th in our 2015 rankings.

Player Bio

Position	Hometown	Height	Weight	Hand	2015 Team	Acquired
LW	Winnipeg, MB	5’9	165	Left	Toronto Marlies	Trade (2015)

The Stats

SEASON	Age	TEAM	LEAGUE	GP	G	A	TP	NHLe	PIM	+/-
2007-08	13	Winnipeg Monarchs Bntm AAA Div 2	WBAAA2	28	20	15	35	N/A	62	N/A
2008-09	14	Winnipeg Monarchs Bantam AAA	WBAAA	29	16	20	36	N/A	38	N/A
2009-10	15	Winnipeg Wild Midget AAA	MMHL	41	23	40	63	N/A	38	N/A
2010-11	16	Portland Winterhawks	WHL	68	16	17	33	10.74	50	13
2011-12	17	Portland Winterhawks	WHL	65	28	30	58	19.76	82	16
2012-13	18	Portland Winterhawks	WHL	68	49	71	120	39.07	103	55
2013-14	19	Portland Winterhawks	WHL	60	39	52	91	33.58	111	28
2014-15	20	Milwaukee / Toronto	AHL	74	14	40	54	28.12	22	5
2015-16	21	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	6	1	2	3	41	2	-1
	21	Toronto Marlies	AHL	65	20	34	54	32.02	55	16

After tearing up the town with a loaded Portland Winterhawks team (from 2012-2014 they featured a season or two of Nic Petan, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Seth Jones, Ty Rattie, Derrick Pouliot, Taylor Leier, and Matt Dumba), many considered Leipsic a passenger on that roster, as they did with Petan when he was drafted.

But since, Leipsic has proven his doubters wrong, scoring 54 points in his rookie AHL season, and matched the same total points (in 9 fewer games) this past season. He’s undoubtedly had AHL success. Will he be able to bring the same success to the NHL?

Projection Stats

pGPSn	pGPSs	pGPS%	pGPS PPG	pGPS PP82	pGPSr
146 (6/18)	61 (5/18)	41.8% (7/18)	0.57 (9/18)	46.82 (9/18)	23.85 (8/18)

pGPSn: The number of matches between the subject and the player-seasons (one season by a single player, i.e, John Tavares 2008 OHL) in the historical sample.
pGPSs: The number of statistical matches that became NHL regulars. This is determined by playing 200 NHL games.
pGPS%: Simply s divided by n, this is the percentage of statistical matches that successfully became NHL players.
pGPS PPG: The NHL points per game of successful matches.
pGPS P82: The same as pGPS PPG, but stretched over 82 games.
pGPSr: A bit of a hybrid number, this pGPS Rating combines the percentage and points per game to produce a number that includes both likelihood of success and potential upside.

Based on the success of his historical comparables, Leipsic is projected to become a middle-six forward.

To learn more about the Prospect Graduation Probabilities System, check out this post.

pGPSr has a strong correlation with NHL P/GP, around 45%. This is significantly stronger than Corsi has with winning. Leipsic’s 23.85 is likely near the center of the distribution (i.e. average changes of success), but I haven’t looked at the histogram personally. A pGPS% of 41.8% is really strong; that’s about the same chances of success as a 20-25th overall pick at the time of the pick.

The Eye Test

Leipsic is a small but feisty player, as many have been told. He isn’t a dirty player by any means, but gets under the opponents skin in the same way (but not to the same degree) as Brendan Gallagher or our own Leo Komarov. He also doesn’t really back it up with the same punishing physicality that Komarov does.

READ MORE: What new Leafs prospect Brendan Leipsic’s track record suggests about his upside

His scoring ability comes from really slick skating, and puck control talents that few in the AHL can keep up with. He needs to work on his shooting, not on the shot necessarily but from where he takes shots from. He’ll likely see a significant scoring increase if he can display the strength and creativity required to get chances in the slot at the NHL level.

As Seen on TV

Here we can see Leipsic score one of the coolest 1st NHL goals I’ve ever seen (though not the prettiest). Have a look:

The Buildup

Last season, Leipsic got a 6 game stay with the NHL club. Too short to do any real analysis on (generally you need about 15 games for Score Adjusted Corsi, 20 for xGF%), but it was a nice glimpse into him as a player. I felt he was really solid and deserved a longer look, but as we all know, the roster was a complete carousel of players post-trade deadline.

READ MORE: Brendan Leipsic scores hat trick in eventual Marlies victory

His stint with the Marlies, as mentioned above was very solid, and I think it should set him up well for a shot at the big club.

Next Season

Obviously, there is a huge logjam of forwards in the Maple Leafs’ roster. I’m really excited about Leipsic’s opportunities next season, but barring a significant number of injuries or a superhuman preseason performance, I don’t think Leipsic makes the roster out of training camp.

READ MORE: Leipsic excited to begin playing in Leafs organization

However, as the season goes on and players are hurt, traded or press-boxed, I believe Leipsic will get a chance to show his stuff and really show what he’s got. With number of young, talented forwards on the Leafs, he should be able to come up and have solid quality of teammates and make a good impression on the coaching staff.

Closing Thoughts

I firmly believe that Leipsic is one of the Leafs’ top 10 prospects and is largely underrated by Leafs Nation. Many are certainly aware of his talents, but I don’t think too many expect him to have a significant impact in the NHL. I hope this piece helps to create some excitement around Leipsic, as I’m very excited to see his skillset in the NHL next season.

The Rankings So Far