Which Leafs Are Most Likely to Test Salary Arbitration This Summer?

The summer of 2018 is a crucial one for the Leafs as they attempt to navigate the cap and maximize the potential impact of their young core for years to come. Much fanfare, and deservedly so, surrounds the team’s forthcoming decisions on impending UFAs James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak, and Leo Komarov. But there will be of course be other decisions to make once this season ends, however it ends, and decisions that are likely less glamorous but potentially just as important. In fact, there’s one avenue through which the players themselves can make crucial decisions: by filing for salary arbitration.

In order to be arbitration-eligible, a player must firstly qualify as a restricted free agent and then have accrued the necessary number of years of professional experience, which varies based on the age at which the player signed his entry-level contract. For each Leaf to be discussed below, the age was between 18 and 22, meaning that 4 years are required.

Now, as people desperate for hockey news each July likely know, it’s rare for a case to actually be decided by an arbitration hearing. For fun, however, let’s take this chance during a rare January lull in the NHL schedule (unless you care about its 30 less important franchises) to imagine and fairly arbitrarily rank the likelihood of arbitration coming into play for 4 eligible guys who have played for the Leafs already this year. For what it’s worth, Josh Leivo would have been quite an interesting case before his one-year extension took him out of play for one more season (probably a bad turn of phrase for Leivo fans – sorry about that).

Marincin actually took his rights to an arbitrator back in the summer of 2016, along with Peter Holland and Frank Corrado (remember when?), but reached a settlement with the Leafs before a hearing took place. Were Marincin to remain with the Leafs, arbitration might not be the worst option for him, as he wouldn’t appear to have much to lose as the Leafs seem unlikely to want him back for any significant amount of money and/or term with their blueline filling up fast with more pedigreed young players.

But Marincin has never really distinguished himself statistically at all, be it in traditional metrics or more advanced ones. He in fact only just cracked the Leafs’ lineup for the first time all season. This could be worth a swing for him, but it’s unlikely to happen. It’s probably even more likely that the Leafs don’t bring him back at all.

Likelihood of arbitration: About as likely as 9 straight regulation losses in the middle of March in the middle of a playoff race. Not likely. 1/10

Like teammate Josh Leivo for one, Nikita Soshnikov finds himself on the NHL bubble, lacking for tangible experience the sort of which is likely necessary to score a reasonably sizable NHL contract and to have a basis for arbitration. More likely is that Sosh and the Leafs, if both sides are interested in having him come back for the Marlies and for Leafs depth, come to terms on a bridge, “prove it” type of deal. Of course, relations between the camps are potentially already a little frosty, as Soshnikov’s latest contract carries with it a nearly-activated clause that would have given him the right to return to the KHL had the Leafs waited one game longer to call him up in mid-November. However this one plays out, it should be interesting to watch.

Likelihood of arbitration: Would be surprising, sort of like nearly allowing one of your players to leave for Russia mid-season. 3/10

Even at #2 in these highly scientific rankings, Calvin Pickard still seems unlikely to test arbitration and the team seems unlikely to want to take him there without much of a sample size as a Leaf. Pickard did play 50 games for Colorado last season, where he put up reasonable numbers for a historically awful team, and there’s precedent for players with small sample sizes still finding success at arbitration (Mike Hoffman in 2015 comes to mind). Here’s hoping for Pickard that his hearing doesn’t go the way of another netminder, Tommy Salo.

Likelihood of arbitration: 5 tearful goalies out of 10

One of the useful aspects of arbitration from a player’s perspective is the impartiality inherent in the negotiation of the player’s salary going forward, as on performance and metrics and comparison to players of a similar ilk. Connor Carrick might be the player of this crop who could most benefit from arbitration this summer. While the club could attempt to suppress his value and potential by pointing to his low raw offensive totals, it’s clear that Carrick cycling in and out of the lineup – and often receiving limited ice time when he does play – hinders what he’s able to put forth on his statistical resume. But peel back a few layers – or just ask any Leafs fan to compare him to someone like Roman Polak, the player who in the past has often replaced him – and it’s clear that Carrick has a case for a boosted value and salary.

Coming into this season, he had a high Corsi and Fenwick in just about every situation, and even a strong +/- last year with the Leafs (insofar as that is really valued by arbitrators anymore). The trouble for Carrick is that this year, his platform year from an arbitrator’s perspective (meaning the season leading up to the arbitration), he’s down across the board, while only marginally up in points per game from his career rate. A player like Carrick who seems to provide value in lots of small ways when he finds his way into the lineup can benefit from arbitration – provided that he and his team can find the right stats to boost his profile, and make the right case for him.

Likelihood of arbitration: 7/10. Keep calm and Corsi on.