Who’s Afraid Of The Florida Panthers?

I didn’t want to admit it, but I have a confession to make: there’s a part of me that’s beginning to take the occasional peek in the standings rearview mirror.

While we were all sitting pretty and laughing a couple of weeks ago, even daring to look upwards at the Tampa Bay Lightning and Boston Bruins – and briefly surpassing the latter – it would be unfair to say that the tides haven’t turned even a little bit of late.

Sure, the Leafs have been “slumping”, going 0-2-2 over their last four games – their worst winless stretch of the season. With the way this season has gone, a slide like this would typically be cause for a few thought-pieces and deep dives into the Leafs’ viability as contenders on any occasion. All eyes would be focused on the future – the inevitability of the playoffs, and security in a divisional playoff spot within an extremely weak Atlantic Division. This slide, however, has come with another caveat: The Florida Panthers just can’t stop winning.

The Panthers are 13-3-1 in their last 17 games, dating back to January 30th. You may not have noticed that right away, because up until a week and a half ago, the Leafs couldn’t stop winning either.

Since the Leafs have run into a bit of a rut, however, the gap has begun to close.

Fourteen points seems like an impassable chasm, right?

Consider, then, that in the 12 days since the Leafs’ last win – over Boston on February 24th – the Panthers have made up 7 points on the Leafs in the standings. They’ve gone from 21 points back of the Leafs to 14 in a 12-day span.

That’s with 4 games in hand remaining as well. Their opponents over their next four? 26th place Montreal, the 24th place New York Rangers, and the 29th place Ottawa Senators before they draw the Boston Bruins on March 15th.

If the Panthers are able to continue on their current pace and rack up points against lesser teams, that’s another 6 points that they’re favored to grab over that stretch. Suddenly, what was a 21-point gap on February 24th could be just 8 points in a week’s time – especially with the Leafs only playing twice over that stretch, against playoff teams in Pittsburgh on Saturday and Dallas next Wednesday.

Games Remaining: 14

Against Playoff Teams: 5

Against Non-Playoff Teams: 9

Games Remaining: 18

Against Playoff Teams: 7

Against Non-Playoff Teams: 11

Fortunately, the schedule down the stretch still favors the Leafs, even if the Panthers are able to gain more ground over the coming week. They have yet to meet the Boston Bruins yet this season, meaning they’re staring down four games in four weeks against one of the league’s biggest juggernauts. That’s on top of matchups against the Blue Jackets and Predators, and one more head-to-head against the Leafs on March 28th.

An unsophisticated assumption that the Panthers will win all of their tilts against non-playoff teams while dropping their matchups against playoff clubs would hypothetically see them go 11-7-0 – nothing special, but enough to hit 93 points and likely qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Scary, right?

Let’s all take a deep breath for a minute.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are currently standing 85 points strong, and would need only 4 wins over their final 14 games to hit that magic 93 point mark, usually enough to make it to The Dance in a typical season. Even in a dreadful scenario in which the Leafs struggled to piece together enough points to barely scrape in while the Panthers overtook them, such a finish would either guarantee a matchup against the Tampa Bay Lightning – long considered a possibility even with a top-3 finish – or a series against whichever of Pittsburgh, Washington or Philadelphia makes it to the top of the Metropolitan Division.

I’m not going to argue that faltering to the point of falling to the WC1 playoff spot would be good for the Leafs in any way – a finish like that would run the risk of shaking this team’s confidence en route to the playoffs. However, if some combination of a Panthers run and a Leafs skid does ultimately result in the Leafs being leapfrogged, the playoffs are still almost guaranteed already, even with a month to go in the season, and even for a team where no lead ever seems safe.

Should we fear the Florida Panthers? Probably at least a little bit more than was expected. Should you fear dropping out of the race at this point? You’d have to have some pretty bad trust issues to make that argument.