Why you should probably avoid getting in a “Leafs should’ve drafted Aho” argument tonight

With the Carolina Hurricanes coming to town, I was reminded of a point that every hardcore Leafs fan likes to complain about, that being that the Leafs missed on Sebastian Aho in the draft. For those that don’t know, Aho was drafted with the 5th pick in the second round by the Hurricanes, which came one pick after the Leafs selected Travis Dermott with their pick, which they got from Columbus, who got it from Los Angeles, who got it from Toronto.

The big issue with this is that Aho has been excellent since the draft, having put up a point per game in SM-Liiga, lit up the World Juniors and helping Finland win gold, and had an excellent rookie season in the NHL that would be more recognized if not for the fact that seven other rookies happened to be even better (including three from the biggest market in the league). Dermott, despite solid seasons in the OHL and AHL, has yet to crack the NHL in his third year since the draft, so it creates a lot of criticism.

Now, I’m not going to defend the choice to pick Dermott over Aho. While Dermott certainly fills a positional need, Aho would create even more depth on the wing, which in turn would’ve prevented the Marleau signing, or make them more comfortable with trading van Riemsdyk. Also, Aho has a much higher ceiling, with the potential of being an elite offensive player in this league, while Dermott could at best pan out to be a top 4 defenseman at this point.

But, what I will say is this: it happens. It’s a terrible excuse to let poor micromanaging off the hook, but it’s true. Sometimes, a team doesn’t see what another does in a player and passes on him in the draft. Sometimes, a team sees more in one player than they do in another, and they end up being wrong.

Aside from the first round, the draft is pretty much a crap shoot. If these were mid-first round picks, the fuss would be a lot more reasonable. I mean, your team shouldn’t pass on Timothy Liljegren to draft Michael Rasmussen, or trade up to pick Tyler Biggs and Stuart Percy. The first round is pretty straightforward, or at least in specific tiers. You might have a cluster of players with similar skill in a part of the first round, such as the stretch of picks 5-10 in the 2016 draft, where which player is picked is up to what the team values and needs. But, it should be a lot easier to not screw up.

The second round and beyond is where things start to get a bit more dicey. This is where teams start to put more value into organizational need, and filling in holes on the team’s depth chart. They probably should still take the best player available, but even that’s up for debate. With some exceptions, like Alex DeBrincat, it’s very hard to come across a clear cut high-end prospect in the later rounds of the draft.

So, why be so easy on teams when they pick a Travis Dermott over a Sebastian Aho? Because after the first round, almost every team has passed on that player. Just about every team passed on Sebastian Aho at some point in the 2015 draft. Some had an excuse, like they drafted Connor McDavid instead, but others instead drafted Lawson Crouse, or *takes deep breath* Jakub Zboril, Jake DeBrusk and Zachary Senyshyn.

It happens in every draft. In 2014, Victor Arvidsson was passed by every team at least three times. In 2013, Jake Guentzel was passed by every team at least twice. In 2012, Shayne Gostisbehere and Colton Parayko were passed by every team at least twice. In 2011, Johnny Gaudreau was passed on at least three times. In 2010, Mark Stone was passed on at least five times.

Even some of the greatest players of all time were drafted after the first round. Detroit made it famous after picking Nicklas Lidstrom in the 3rd round, Arizona Coyotes legend Pavel Datsyuk in the 6th, and Henrik Zetterberg in the 7th. Other notable players drafted outside the first include part-time clown Daniel Alfredsson in the 6th round, Henrik Lundqvist in the 7th, Joe Pavelski in the 7th, Luc Robitaille in the 9th, Jamie Benn in the 5th, Theo Fleury in the 8th, and Connor Brown in the 6th.

Heck, some players have even been drafted twice! Known Corsi God Jake Muzzin was originally drafted by Pittsburgh, and then passed on his second time through the draft. Our boy Fred Andersen was originally drafted by the Hurricanes, and then went to the Ducks. Craig Anderson was originally drafted by the Flames, and then went to the Blackhawks.

So, to conclude all of my rambling, the draft is a crapshoot. While it’s always great to pick the best player available, one team’s knowledge of the best player might be different than another team’s knowledge, and it’s always hard to pinpoint who is the better player until further down their NHL careers, if they even have one. If you boldly predicted that the Leafs shouldn’t have passed on Travis Konecny (I’d link a tweet, but he deletes all of them), then by all means criticize the team’s draft choice and tell them that they should listen to you. But, if you weren’t on the Sebastian Aho hype train during the draft, then you knew just as much as they did.

Again, this isn’t me saying “NHL teams know more than you, you can’t criticize them”, but this is me saying that if you didn’t know then, stop worrying about it now. Trust me, there are much better things to spend focusing on than what the Leafs could’ve done with their 34th overall pick in 2015.