I wonder if second round elimination games are as stressful as first round ones. I hope we get to find out soon. Right now this feels all too familiar and while the story has consistently played out one way, today I’m betting on the script being flipped.

Sure, the payout is a little sweeter for Tampa with a +110 Moneyline vs. the Leafs -131, but why would you want to be that person? If you were emotionally hedging you’ve had six other games to do so, and now is the time to bank on the Leafs. Make the victory sweeter, rather than searching for a consolation prize (unless this is an attempt to offset the cost of Game 7 tickets, then do what you’ve got to do.)

If (read: When) the Leafs win tonight it will need to be on the strength of their star players. Anytime goals from the big four are as follows:

Auston Matthews: -120
Mitch Marner: +175
William Nylander: +195
John Tavares: +220

With the way Tavares has been going, and the better payout, that’s the one I’m going with tonight.

While I’m counting on a Leafs win, it’s still the Leafs and expect to be biting my nails and clenching my ass until the last second. That’s why I’m going with the Leafs winning by exactly one goal, and that pays at +250. If you want to believe that there will be an empty netter, I admire your confidence and winning by 2 goals pays at +550.

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