The NHL is now 50 days away from the trade deadline. Not knowing what the impact of the Four Nations tournament will have on movement around the league, it might either be still on the early side to start going heavy into trade talk or just the right time to start making it a focus. What has been clear is that the Maple Leafs need a centre. Brad Treliving has done everything short of posting a help wanted ad outside the visitor&#8217;s locker room at the Scotiabank Arena. Darren Dreger has pretty much stated that Brad Treliving is looking at every NHL player who has ever taken a faceoff to see if they could be a fit, and today <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/islanders-brock-nelson-leads-first-trade-targets-board-of-2025">Frank Seravalli listed Brock Nelson at the top of his trade target list</a> and <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/5-trade-destinations-new-york-islanders-brock-nelson">Matt Larkin listed the Maple Leafs as a potential fit for Nelson</a>, so that seems like a good place to start in going in depth on potential centres.
Somewhat escalating the interest in the Leafs finding not only a centre, but a centre who can play on the top two lines is the question regarding the status of John Tavares after an injury during Wednesday&#8217;s practice. Tavares being out, coupled with Auston Matthews not being at 100% health means that the Leafs aren&#8217;t too far removed from Max Domi as a top line centre and David Kampf playing in the top six. If a three game losing streak is a cause for concern in Toronto, the disappearance of Matthews and Tavares from the lineup at the same time is apocalyptic. The need for a centre is clear and why that centre can&#8217;t exclusively be a bottom of the lineup player is also becoming increasing obvious.
That brings us to Brock Nelson and what boxes he checks for the Leafs.
<ul>
<li>He&#8217;s a two-way player. This takes a lot of pressure off of Matthews who doesn&#8217;t have much relief in the defensive zone until you get to David Kampf&#8217;s spot on the depth chart. Against tough competition on a bad team, Nelson has maintained positive Corsi, expected goal, and goal differentials.</li>
<li>He has offensive potential. Nelson is in a down year, but still at a 20-goal, 50-point pace which isn&#8217;t bad for a player that is going to see third line responsibilities in optimal situations. He had three 30 goal seasons before this one, so a healthy dose of secondary scoring is reasonable to hope for. Nelson&#8217;s 5v5 production is close to the pace of his previous seasons and the biggest issue seems to be with his powerplay production. That could be either a bug or a feature considering the Leafs powerplay results this year.</li>
<li>He&#8217;s 6&#8217;4 all day every day. Brock Nelson might not be a frequent hitter but adding more size up the middle fits with the direct that Brad Treliving has gone with in other parts of the Leafs&#8217; lineup.</li>
<li> While historically Nelson doesn&#8217;t have a great faceoff win%, he does this season at 53.8%.</li>
<li>Nelson is an all-situations option, regularly on the powerplay but also kills penalties.</li>
<li>At 50% salary retained (Nelson has a $6M cap hit) he&#8217;s not too difficult to fit into the Leafs cap situation, and if another team will help with retaining 50% of that, Nelson will come in at $1.5M, not much more than the present Leafs LTIR space.</li>
</ul>
Of course, there are also the drawbacks. At full price, Nelson isn&#8217;t easy to fit into the Leafs cap situation. He is having a down year and a change of scenery to a contender is a magical cure-all. Nelson is going to likely cost a lot in trade and the Leafs have limited resources that they might not wish to commit to a pending unrestricted free agent.
The biggest wildcard factor in all of this is Lou Lamoriello. Time has passed enough that while not being water under the bridge with Brendan Shanahan and the Leafs organization, the two teams have traded before (three times), although maybe not on this magnitude (not to say that Matt Martin for Eamon McAdam wasn&#8217;t a blockbuster.)
No, the reason why Lamoriello is a wild card because there is a likely chance that he isn&#8217;t looking for the prospects and draft picks that selling teams normally seek at the trade deadline. Where other GM&#8217;s can see the need to blow things up, Lamoriello is often committed to what he has built and is likely looking more to upgrade or fine tune for the future. There is also the matter of if Lamoriello starts a rebuild, he knows damned well that someone else will be brought in to set a new path. As such, it is difficult to nail down what the Islanders will be looking for in return and while Nelson is the type of player that seems like a first round pick plus a kicker, Lamoriello works differently is equally likely to be trying to re-sign Nelson as his priority.
In comparison to other options, like Ryan O&#8217;Reilly, Brock Nelson loses some of his appeal. Both players are the same the age, and by going after O&#8217;Reilly the Leafs would get a player they are familiar with and one that carries a couple of years of term on his contract at a reasonable price. And even if it is not O&#8217;Reilly, the Leafs have expressed an interest in bringing in a player with term rather than someone hitting free agency. Nelson has a 16 team no trade clause that could also come into play but given that the Leafs are a contending team it is unlikely Nelson would block a trade to Toronto, it just could factor into whether he is at all interested in re-signing and the Leafs need to be cautious about burning assets on rentals. If Nelson isn&#8217;t interested in Toronto or wants to test the open market the Leafs might want to a short term hit on Nelson&#8217;s upside to find a trade target offering longer term stability. With Fraser Minten looking like a 3C option in the future for the Leafs, term might not be as important, as long as they aren&#8217;t paying a ridiculous price for a rental.
With the clock beginning to tick down towards the deadline and the Leafs having the preference to act early as well as potentially some necessity out of injury to act, Nelson is one of the players that should be at the top of list for ideal targets for Brad Treliving.

The NHL is now 50 days away from the trade deadline. Not knowing what the impact of the Four Nations tournament will have on movement around the league, it might either be still on the early side to start going heavy into trade talk or just the right time to start making it a focus. What has been clear is that the Maple Leafs need a centre. Brad Treliving has done everything short of posting a help wanted ad outside the visitor's locker room at the Scotiabank Arena. Darren Dreger has pretty much stated that Brad Treliving is looking at every NHL player who has ever taken a faceoff to see if they could be a fit, and today <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/islanders-brock-nelson-leads-first-trade-targets-board-of-2025">Frank Seravalli listed Brock Nelson at the top of his trade target list</a> and <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/5-trade-destinations-new-york-islanders-brock-nelson">Matt Larkin listed the Maple Leafs as a potential fit for Nelson</a>, so that seems like a good place to start in going in depth on potential centres.

Somewhat escalating the interest in the Leafs finding not only a centre, but a centre who can play on the top two lines is the question regarding the status of John Tavares after an injury during Wednesday's practice. Tavares being out, coupled with Auston Matthews not being at 100% health means that the Leafs aren't too far removed from Max Domi as a top line centre and David Kampf playing in the top six. If a three game losing streak is a cause for concern in Toronto, the disappearance of Matthews and Tavares from the lineup at the same time is apocalyptic. The need for a centre is clear and why that centre can't exclusively be a bottom of the lineup player is also becoming increasing obvious.

That brings us to Brock Nelson and what boxes he checks for the Leafs.
<ul>
 	<li>He's a two-way player. This takes a lot of pressure off of Matthews who doesn't have much relief in the defensive zone until you get to David Kampf's spot on the depth chart. Against tough competition on a bad team, Nelson has maintained positive Corsi, expected goal, and goal differentials.</li>
 	<li>He has offensive potential. Nelson is in a down year, but still at a 20-goal, 50-point pace which isn't bad for a player that is going to see third line responsibilities in optimal situations. He had three 30 goal seasons before this one, so a healthy dose of secondary scoring is reasonable to hope for. Nelson's 5v5 production is close to the pace of his previous seasons and the biggest issue seems to be with his powerplay production. That could be either a bug or a feature considering the Leafs powerplay results this year.</li>
 	<li>He's 6'4 all day every day. Brock Nelson might not be a frequent hitter but adding more size up the middle fits with the direct that Brad Treliving has gone with in other parts of the Leafs' lineup.</li>
 	<li> While historically Nelson doesn't have a great faceoff win%, he does this season at 53.8%.</li>
 	<li>Nelson is an all-situations option, regularly on the powerplay but also kills penalties.</li>
 	<li>At 50% salary retained (Nelson has a $6M cap hit) he's not too difficult to fit into the Leafs cap situation, and if another team will help with retaining 50% of that, Nelson will come in at $1.5M, not much more than the present Leafs LTIR space.</li>
</ul>
Of course, there are also the drawbacks. At full price, Nelson isn't easy to fit into the Leafs cap situation. He is having a down year and a change of scenery to a contender is a magical cure-all. Nelson is going to likely cost a lot in trade and the Leafs have limited resources that they might not wish to commit to a pending unrestricted free agent.

The biggest wildcard factor in all of this is Lou Lamoriello. Time has passed enough that while not being water under the bridge with Brendan Shanahan and the Leafs organization, the two teams have traded before (three times), although maybe not on this magnitude (not to say that Matt Martin for Eamon McAdam wasn't a blockbuster.)

No, the reason why Lamoriello is a wild card because there is a likely chance that he isn't looking for the prospects and draft picks that selling teams normally seek at the trade deadline. Where other GM's can see the need to blow things up, Lamoriello is often committed to what he has built and is likely looking more to upgrade or fine tune for the future. There is also the matter of if Lamoriello starts a rebuild, he knows damned well that someone else will be brought in to set a new path. As such, it is difficult to nail down what the Islanders will be looking for in return and while Nelson is the type of player that seems like a first round pick plus a kicker, Lamoriello works differently is equally likely to be trying to re-sign Nelson as his priority.

In comparison to other options, like Ryan O'Reilly, Brock Nelson loses some of his appeal. Both players are the same the age, and by going after O'Reilly the Leafs would get a player they are familiar with and one that carries a couple of years of term on his contract at a reasonable price. And even if it is not O'Reilly, the Leafs have expressed an interest in bringing in a player with term rather than someone hitting free agency. Nelson has a 16 team no trade clause that could also come into play but given that the Leafs are a contending team it is unlikely Nelson would block a trade to Toronto, it just could factor into whether he is at all interested in re-signing and the Leafs need to be cautious about burning assets on rentals. If Nelson isn't interested in Toronto or wants to test the open market the Leafs might want to a short term hit on Nelson's upside to find a trade target offering longer term stability. With Fraser Minten looking like a 3C option in the future for the Leafs, term might not be as important, as long as they aren't paying a ridiculous price for a rental.

With the clock beginning to tick down towards the deadline and the Leafs having the preference to act early as well as potentially some necessity out of injury to act, Nelson is one of the players that should be at the top of list for ideal targets for Brad Treliving.

Brock Nelson is a good fit for the Maple Leafs at the right price

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