Times have been pretty good in the Maple Leafs net this year. Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll have certainly made Brad Treliving look like a bit of a genius for putting his faith in them rather than chasing down an expensive veteran option who likely wouldn’t be offering Toronto the results they have received from their Jennings-calibre tandem so far this year.

The issue always was going to be injuries and fatigue though. Stolarz’ top NHL games played season is 28 and only twice in his pro career has he exceeded 35 games played in a season. Woll’s 25 game campaign last year was his peak workload and when you factor in his AHL game and three playoff games, he still failed to crack the 30 games mark. There was always going to be a gap that needed to be addressed either by setting career highs in games played or relying on Dennis Hildeby and Matt Murray as necessary. There’s also been the benefit of the Leafs not having overlapping absences so far from Stolarz and Woll, which allows one trusted netminder to keep a grip on the reins.

It is still early in the Stolarz absence to know how things will play out, but with potentially six more weeks without the netminder mean potentially 19 games without Stolarz, and three of them are back-to-backs, pointing to using either Hildeby or Murray for those. With that workload Joseph Woll will set his career high for games played in mid-January, which can either be encouraging or pose a risk for injury and fatigue depending on glass half full/empty philosophy. Odds are the Leafs won’t go to Woll for 16 out of 19 games, but regardless of whether they do or not, there might be some merit in the Maple Leafs adjusting their strategy to fit a system that is less reliant on goaltending.

The Maple Leafs have been playing their lowest event hockey under Craig Berube. The defensive numbers have definitely improved but it is also quite clear to see where it has come at the expense of the Maple Leafs offence. And when you consider that with Anthony Stolarz the Maple Leafs were enjoying one of the best goals saved above expected in the league (with Woll not that far behind but with a smaller sample) the Leafs might be end up seeing the goaltending gap expose their tight hockey philosophy.

Stolarz has a .841 high danger save percentage at all strengths, and Woll’s is also respectable at .822. Hildeby’s is at .800, but is just .625 at 5v5. Both Hildeby and Woll have negative high danger goals saved above average numbers, which simultaneously makes the case for continuing to do what is necessary to eliminate chances in the best scoring areas of the ice but also makes the case for attempting to outscore potential goaltending woes. We’ve entered the stating the obvious territory of saying the best course of action is for the Leafs to score more while trying to keep their opponents from scoring. Truly landmark hockey analysis.

The reality is the Leafs will likely be scored on more. Even though there shouldn’t be any complaints about Joseph Woll, the reality is that Stolarz has been the better goaltender this year and the Leafs will need to prepare to make up the gaps in other ways. And as seen by the numbers above, the Leafs do have the personnel that can play high event hockey, and the Leafs’ recent regular season records show that they can do it pretty well in the first 82 games of the year.

Woll’s track record also shows that he can be the guy behind a team that dismisses defence. Of goaltenders playing 20 games or more last season, Woll had the 14th best goals saved above expected in the league. He did that while facing 31.47 shots per sixty minutes played, the highest volume of shots seen by a Leafs goaltender last year. This year he’s at 27.2 shots against/60, the lowest of the Leafs netminders. The Leafs opening up their game a bit more shouldn’t hurt Woll and may give Toronto a better chance to win on nights that they need to go to either Dennis Hildeby or Matt Murray.

The Maple Leafs roster is also setting itself up for higher event 5v5 play. The returns of Auston Matthews, Max Pacioretty, Max Domi, and Bobby McMann have all infused more offensive power into the lineup than Toronto had when key minutes were required from Connor Dewar, Steven Lorentz, and Pontus Holmberg. An upward trend in higher event hockey was going to occur naturally anyway, the Stolarz situation is just an accelerant for it.

While high offence hockey is exciting and suited to a lot of the personnel on the Leafs, there is likely still some hesitancy to strip away some of the team defence success stories that have occurred with the Leafs this year. And the shadow of what high event hockey has done for the Leafs in April and May looms large over the city. Going back to an aggressive style even for a short period might require a reboot that Craig Berube doesn’t want to undertake.

Presumably that means the best course of action is to not reinvent the wheel (yet). The scoring their way out of trouble approach worked well against the Sabres with Hildeby in net and maybe high event hockey is simply an activation for backups or when trailing. It could be too soon to give up on the progress made with Berube’s tighter system but if that was largely dependent on who was in net, the Leafs would be wise to pivot back to high event hockey as soon the need is evident.