Toronto Maple Leafs captain Auston Matthews hasn’t played up to his otherworldly standards this season, while fighting through a lingering upper-body injury. Matthews is on pace for 34 goals and 77 points over 68 games this season, which would represent his worst output since the 2019-20 season, when accounting for pace. There’s been a natural tendency to worry about the nature of the injury, along with how Matthews’ diminished performance could hamper a critical season for the Maple Leafs, where the expectations to win now are reaching a fever pitch, especially with the discourse surrounding the team’s pending free agents becoming unavoidable.

Don’t look now, but Matthews may be all the way back. Matthews has scored four goals in his past three games, and after an eight-shot performance in a 2-1 win against the high-octane Colorado Avalanche on Wednesday, his output is matching the eye test as well.

Perhaps the trickiest part of covering this season is determining the severity of Matthews’ injury. I’m not a doctor, and it would be irresponsible to pretend otherwise, but when Matthews has been made available during skates, he looks like himself! He’s skating with the same velocity, and he’s shooting with approximately 95 percent of his velocity, too. It appears that Matthews has been fighting through a pain tolerance issue, and his renewed ability to skate through contact should lend Leafs fans some further confidence as the team closes out the regular season. Matthews essentially dragged Brock Nelson to the net while hitting the crossbar in the second period of Wednesday’s win in an excellent performance that we’ve long been acclimated with. And while Nathan MacKinnon may be pushing for his second consecutive Hart Trophy, Matthews was the best skater on the ice Wednesday, narrowly winning the head-to-head matchup.

“He grabbed a hold of the room. It is not good enough what is going on here,” Berube said of Matthews on Tuesday, following a dominant 6-2 win over the Calgary Flames the previous night. “He went out and talked, and then he walked. That is really what it boils down to. He went out and led the way with the work and compete that was needed at the start of the game.”

Matthews is tied for 15th in shots at 5-on-5 from March 1 onwards, 22nd in individual expected goals, while winning 63.1 percent of his faceoffs. These aren’t numbers that suggest that he’s returned to world-class form, but he’s trending upwards, and he’s bound for some positive shooting regression. Matthews’ production relative to the league is superior in all situations, as he ranks second in individual goals in all situations since March 1, trailing only Brady Tkachuk, while ranking first in individual scoring chances.

The long-awaited uptick in production is coming, and he’s been central to the Maple Leafs’ scorching power play, which has improved significantly because they’re resetting to the top instead of forcing bad looks, while Matthews and Nylander’s shots are real threats that open up space for Matthew Knies and John Tavares to get easier lanes closer to the net. Max Domi may be correct in his assessment that Matthews is playing like the best player in the world, when you account for how dominant he’s been with the man advantage, while playing superior defence.

There’s a risk of being declarative, but Matthews appears to be all the way back, based on the eye test and the statistics, and if you’re skeptical, you could write off his March form as a small sample during what’s been a down year relative to his superstar expectations. With 14 games remaining in the regular season, Matthews is skating through contact, winning board battles, working a strong two-man game consistently with Knies, while benefiting from Mitch Marner’s superior playmaking. If Matthews is back to his usual self, it’s the greatest upgrade the Maple Leafs can make heading into the most important postseason of their core’s respective careers.