Every offseason presents new opportunities for season-long futures bets. With the Toronto Maple Leafs, it’s been hard to find anything of interest, or with any betting value given how little turnover there’s been among management, coaching staff, or the core group of players.

A perennial 100-110 point team with season point total bets of over under 101.5 points at -110? No thanks! Consistently being one of the top-five favourites to win the Stanley Cup, Eastern Conference, or Atlantic Division with marginal odds or opportunity to get involved has felt like a very unrewarding area to invest money for nearly eight months.

Although there wasn’t an overwhelming change in the group or the management for the 2024-2025 season, there has been one major change that Leafs fans haven’t experienced in 5 year: a new head coach. Craig Berube takes over as the 32nd head coach in Maple Leafs history. I can’t see much difference coming to the overall production of the team throughout an 82-game regular season so my interest doesn’t lie in the Stanley Cup, conference, dvision, or point total markets, rather it tends towards an award: the Jack Adams.

Is this an award Berube could win? Are the odds enough to justify a bet? Is there even a reasonable path for him to achieve this?

The Jack Adams Award is an annual award presented by the NHL Broadcasters’ Association to “the NHL coach adjudged to have contributed the most to his team’s success.”

Sheldon Keefe finished his first full since with the Maple Leafs back in 2021-2022 and this was an award I completely steered clear of from a Maple Leafs perspective. How much could they really improve from one year to the next under the same guy that garner enough attention from the voters to earn him this honour? It was no slight to Keefe or the regular season success of the Maple Leafs, but we need to remember this is an award given out by real people determined by subjective things and good stories. There are no clear cut stats like the Rocket Richard for most goals or Art Ross for most points.

A new bench boss in Toronto has me intrigued with the betting market for the first time in a while but there are two concerns here for myself… is there a path? And are the odds justifiable given the road that needs to be travelled?

The Toronto Maple Leafs finished third in the Atlantic Division with 102 points last season, behind the Florida Panthers (110 points) and Boston Bruins (109 points).

The first way to look at this would be from winning season-long titles. The only way to truly garner this attention would be with a dominant regular season that puts you head and shoulders above the rest through 82 games that wins the President’s Trophy as the team with the most points in the NHL for the year. This would be a jump that would be discussed regularly among national media and would force the hands of writers to acknowledge what Berube has accomplished here.

Atlantic Division winner or Eastern Conference winner really doesn’t cut it for me given that it’s against a smaller pool of teams, other teams could regress, or achieve lower point totals. It’s President’s Trophy or nothing.

The next way to approach the award would be from the perspective of points. This goes hand-in-hand with the awards and lends itself as a helping hand to justify the argument if there are drastic improvements. Would an 8-16 point increase to get even with the Panthers’ 110-point season from last year, or tie the Rangers’ league-best 114 points, be considered enough to get into consideration? I would think so.

Is it enough to outright win the award? For myself, the answer is no. The Maple Leafs are constantly looked at as one of the best teams in the NHL and considered a Stanley Cup contender every season. The expectation is there that they’ll achieve a lot of points and be one of the top teams heading into the post-season. However, a substantial jump in points coupled with a President’s Trophy on the mantle? That will get some people looking.

The final piece of the puzzle is how Berube compares to other coaches. While a President’s Trophy or 110+ points may be amazing, how does he stack up to other coaches in new places? Sheldon Keefe is taking over behind the bench of the New Jersey Devils who finished with 81 points and missed the playoffs last year. Andrew Brunette is heading into his second season behind the Nashville Predators bench, coming off a strong end of their season and a massive off season with lots of upgrades.

Even Travis Green heading out to Ottawa for his first season there to take over a team that has fell short of expectations every year since they declared the “rebuild was over” (their words not mine) and could potentially get them into the playoffs for the first time since 2017. This award isn’t just about Berube and the Maple Leafs, but about other situations and how compelling their stories are.

The most realistic path for Berube to win this award in Toronto is by having one of the most dominant seasons we’ve ever seen from this group of players, coupled with a noticeable change in on-ice style of play, and throw in some regular season awards on top. The only other way is much darker and involves some kind of terrible start to the season that sees the team do a full 180 and come from the depths to top the division and be a dominant force — at which point I would rather wait and buy him at his market low rather than the third favourite to win the award.

Ultimately, I can’t get there when it comes to the +900 (via bet365) on Craig Berube to win the Jack Adams. Given the roads laid out in order to accomplish the award, at an implied win probability of 10 percent, I’m not willing to bet this. Not only does the team need to be incredible and take some large steps, but other teams also need to avoid the some leaps with the new people they have running their staffs.

You could just bet the Leafs to win the Eastern Conference at +750, or the Leafs to win the Atlantic at +250, or the team to record 110+ points at +230, which could all happen and Berube may still not win the award.

With a number of things that need to go perfect for him to achieve this, +900 for Berube to win the Jack Adams is a pass for me.