<p>Hockey is certainly around the corner when you start getting <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/32-thoughts-a-collection-of-late-off-season-notes/">full length Elliotte Friedman 32 Thoughts columns</a>. This week&#8217;s column didn&#8217;t disappoint as it included several tidbits regarding the league&#8217;s intentions regarding expansion and brought two key negotiations to the forefront. Here are a few thoughts on how things could play out and the potential impact on the Maple Leafs.</p>
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<h2>Expansion</h2>
<p><em>From Friedman:</em></p>
<blockquote><p>Daly was most interesting talking about expansion. It’s coming — and the union believes that as well — but was very careful not to be pinned down. “At the appropriate time” was the phrase he used. It’s clear the league sees legitimate interest and is putting together a proper process, taking meetings and gathering information. He pointed out that, in the United States, the NHL is in fewer markets than its professional brethren, while Seattle and Vegas prove there is “a model that works, a model that allows you to be competitive out of the gate … Doesn’t mean that it’s imminent, doesn’t mean that it&#8217;s going to happen in the next year or so.”</p></blockquote>
<p>We&#8217;ll start with expansion because it&#8217;s the most fun to speculate on of the three topics. The &#8220;not happening in the next year or so&#8221; line is fairly obvious when you consider the CBA is expiring and bringing in a team just to lock them out doesn&#8217;t reflect particularly well on the league and seems like a hard sell to someone about to drop half a billion dollars on expansion fees.</p>
<p>Everything that was said seems like expansion is inevitable and locales like Atlanta and Houston are probably at the top of the list and revisiting Arizona is going to be part of the conversation, assuming Mat Ishbia, the owner of the Suns, is the person expressing interest. While there wasn&#8217;t a specific number for teams the league would expand to given, it seems likely that the NHL would seek balance and try to land on four divisions of nine teams when all is said and done and we&#8217;ll see the league embark on a path to 36 teams that could take a few years. While Kansas will likely come up as an option and Canadian&#8217;s will get their hearts broken by the harsh reality that a team in Quebec City isn&#8217;t feasible, the most interesting option that should be considered is the potential for a second team in Toronto, which I&#8217;m sure the league wants but the Maple Leafs have fought against.</p>
<p>Whatever the NHL decides on the expansion front it will come with some notable fallout for the Maple Leafs. There will likely be another healthy bump to the salary cap. There will potentially be another team in the Atlantic Division. And while Bill Daly stated that there is more than enough talent to go around around and have competitive teams, the quality of goaltending in the league declining could make things interesting. All of this before even considering the impacts of expansion drafts, something that teams now know they need to asset manage well in advance of draft day.</p>
<p>There are likely to be other ramifications that come with expansion and that would include a restructuring of the playoffs. The league has pushed for an expanded playoff format and as soon as they can say less than 50% of the league qualifies for the playoffs there might be renewed enthusiasm for making adjustments there. If it ends the bizarre divisional seeding model presently used that might be worth it though.</p>
<p>In the short term the focus this season will be on taking expansion location talks a bit more seriously. The league is more forthcoming about their intentions than usual and given how long it takes to put a team on the ice, by next spring some expansion approvals could already be in place.</p>
<h2>The next CBA</h2>
<p><em>From Friedman:</em></p>
<blockquote><p>The NHLPA met with the players who came to Prague, while NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly made the trip. The CBA expires after the 2025-26 season (as does the Canadian television contract) and talks have yet to begin. That’s nothing to be concerned about, plenty of time, and there’s zero credible reason for any stoppage. According to the deputy commissioner, the relationship between the two has “never been better than it is.”</p></blockquote>
<p>Two more years of labour peace. History says we should enjoy it while we can.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s nothing unusual about collective bargaining talks not starting this early and while it might be an encouraging sign if they did, there is no need for panic. If the league and NHLPA aren&#8217;t starting the process next summer, then there will be a reason to come up with alternate entertainment plans for the 2026-27 season.</p>
<p>Bill Daly&#8217;s comments about the relationship being good is probably true. Salaries are back on the rise, they are heading to the Olympics, the worst of escrow is in the rearview mirror, the players are likely happy. On the owner&#8217;s side of things, team valuation is at an all-time high, legal gambling revenue has been a game changer, and a new TV deal and more expansion fees are on the horizon. Things look pretty good.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s a nice way of framing it but things going good tends to lead to each side thinking the other can give up a few more things that they&#8217;ve always wanted. It&#8217;s entirely possible that the league wants a bigger share of Hockey Related Revenue, and it&#8217;s entirely possible that with the league making more money that the NHLPA no longer sees the need for things like a salary cap or putting restrictions on free agents, and possibly the entry level contract framework could be called into question too. You&#8217;d think at some point there would be some interest in doing more for former players as well and that would come at a cost.</p>
<p>There is still plenty that can be put on the table that can be fought over but at the same time it is encouraging that both sides seem to be more amicable about dealing with each other.</p>
<h2>The Canadian TV rights</h2>
<p>As mentioned above the TV rights will be coming up too and while Bill Daly didn&#8217;t really speak about that, it&#8217;s an interesting footnote from Elliotte Friedman that warrants a paragraph or two worth of discussion.</p>
<p>The TV deal will get figured out in advance of the CBA as there is important ad selling and promo work that networks won&#8217;t want held up. The TV contract also will play an important part in the CBA negotiations both as a leverage point and by giving a better understanding of future earnings.</p>
<p>Over the ridiculously long Rogers contract, Sportsnet has struggled to make its programming something that hockey fans are excited to tune into and for the most part it was getting viewers solely based on being the ones with the games. As the contract progressed it seems like less and less money has been invested into the product and Sportsnet has favoured a stripped down, no frills approach that pays the fewest number of personalities possible and now has little interest in attempts at innovating or going after a new audience.</p>
<p>The obvious alternative on the next deal will be that the TV rights go to Bell and TSN, and they&#8217;ve done a strong job of positioning themselves with a deeper pool of quality analysts and thanks to their &#8220;less to lose&#8221; situation, they&#8217;ve been able to land on programming that has worked well regionally and could translate into success nationally as well. I&#8217;ll admit my bias towards the TSN broadcast, but when it comes to who gets the contract it won&#8217;t be about the product pitch, it will be about the dollars and that&#8217;s where Amazon or other streaming services could be an interesting third option.</p>
<p>The NHL has also had success with breaking up the national coverage in the US between ESPN and TNT, and there is plenty of reason to believe they&#8217;ll explore that idea as well. TSN has suffered without national rights and Sportsnet was ill-equipped to deliver on having them in their entirety. With Amazon already making an appearance on Monday nights going forward, a divided approach might be the big picture approach that Bell and Rogers want, as the approach also allows their cable providing services to sell more channels.</p>
<p>From a Leafs perspective, the contract is interesting because it&#8217;s a &#8220;Mom and Dad are fighting&#8221; relationship at MLSE. While it&#8217;s hard to imagine that telecommunications monopolists have much to complain about, they will, and this is probably where the operations side of things being handled more directly by Keith Pelley instead of the board will serve them well.</p>
<h3>Sponsored by bet365</h3>
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Hockey is certainly around the corner when you start getting <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/32-thoughts-a-collection-of-late-off-season-notes/">full length Elliotte Friedman 32 Thoughts columns</a>. This week's column didn't disappoint as it included several tidbits regarding the league's intentions regarding expansion and brought two key negotiations to the forefront. Here are a few thoughts on how things could play out and the potential impact on the Maple Leafs.
<div class="bam-inline-promotion-block" data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2106" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="324"></div>
<h2>Expansion</h2>
<em>From Friedman:</em>
<blockquote>Daly was most interesting talking about expansion. It’s coming — and the union believes that as well — but was very careful not to be pinned down. “At the appropriate time” was the phrase he used. It’s clear the league sees legitimate interest and is putting together a proper process, taking meetings and gathering information. He pointed out that, in the United States, the NHL is in fewer markets than its professional brethren, while Seattle and Vegas prove there is “a model that works, a model that allows you to be competitive out of the gate … Doesn’t mean that it’s imminent, doesn’t mean that it's going to happen in the next year or so.”</blockquote>
We'll start with expansion because it's the most fun to speculate on of the three topics. The "not happening in the next year or so" line is fairly obvious when you consider the CBA is expiring and bringing in a team just to lock them out doesn't reflect particularly well on the league and seems like a hard sell to someone about to drop half a billion dollars on expansion fees.

Everything that was said seems like expansion is inevitable and locales like Atlanta and Houston are probably at the top of the list and revisiting Arizona is going to be part of the conversation, assuming Mat Ishbia, the owner of the Suns, is the person expressing interest. While there wasn't a specific number for teams the league would expand to given, it seems likely that the NHL would seek balance and try to land on four divisions of nine teams when all is said and done and we'll see the league embark on a path to 36 teams that could take a few years. While Kansas will likely come up as an option and Canadian's will get their hearts broken by the harsh reality that a team in Quebec City isn't feasible, the most interesting option that should be considered is the potential for a second team in Toronto, which I'm sure the league wants but the Maple Leafs have fought against.

Whatever the NHL decides on the expansion front it will come with some notable fallout for the Maple Leafs. There will likely be another healthy bump to the salary cap. There will potentially be another team in the Atlantic Division. And while Bill Daly stated that there is more than enough talent to go around around and have competitive teams, the quality of goaltending in the league declining could make things interesting. All of this before even considering the impacts of expansion drafts, something that teams now know they need to asset manage well in advance of draft day.

There are likely to be other ramifications that come with expansion and that would include a restructuring of the playoffs. The league has pushed for an expanded playoff format and as soon as they can say less than 50% of the league qualifies for the playoffs there might be renewed enthusiasm for making adjustments there. If it ends the bizarre divisional seeding model presently used that might be worth it though.

In the short term the focus this season will be on taking expansion location talks a bit more seriously. The league is more forthcoming about their intentions than usual and given how long it takes to put a team on the ice, by next spring some expansion approvals could already be in place.
<h2>The next CBA</h2>
<em>From Friedman:</em>
<blockquote>The NHLPA met with the players who came to Prague, while NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly made the trip. The CBA expires after the 2025-26 season (as does the Canadian television contract) and talks have yet to begin. That’s nothing to be concerned about, plenty of time, and there’s zero credible reason for any stoppage. According to the deputy commissioner, the relationship between the two has “never been better than it is.”</blockquote>
Two more years of labour peace. History says we should enjoy it while we can.

There's nothing unusual about collective bargaining talks not starting this early and while it might be an encouraging sign if they did, there is no need for panic. If the league and NHLPA aren't starting the process next summer, then there will be a reason to come up with alternate entertainment plans for the 2026-27 season.

Bill Daly's comments about the relationship being good is probably true. Salaries are back on the rise, they are heading to the Olympics, the worst of escrow is in the rearview mirror, the players are likely happy. On the owner's side of things, team valuation is at an all-time high, legal gambling revenue has been a game changer, and a new TV deal and more expansion fees are on the horizon. Things look pretty good.

That's a nice way of framing it but things going good tends to lead to each side thinking the other can give up a few more things that they've always wanted. It's entirely possible that the league wants a bigger share of Hockey Related Revenue, and it's entirely possible that with the league making more money that the NHLPA no longer sees the need for things like a salary cap or putting restrictions on free agents, and possibly the entry level contract framework could be called into question too. You'd think at some point there would be some interest in doing more for former players as well and that would come at a cost.

There is still plenty that can be put on the table that can be fought over but at the same time it is encouraging that both sides seem to be more amicable about dealing with each other.
<h2>The Canadian TV rights</h2>
As mentioned above the TV rights will be coming up too and while Bill Daly didn't really speak about that, it's an interesting footnote from Elliotte Friedman that warrants a paragraph or two worth of discussion.

The TV deal will get figured out in advance of the CBA as there is important ad selling and promo work that networks won't want held up. The TV contract also will play an important part in the CBA negotiations both as a leverage point and by giving a better understanding of future earnings.

Over the ridiculously long Rogers contract, Sportsnet has struggled to make its programming something that hockey fans are excited to tune into and for the most part it was getting viewers solely based on being the ones with the games. As the contract progressed it seems like less and less money has been invested into the product and Sportsnet has favoured a stripped down, no frills approach that pays the fewest number of personalities possible and now has little interest in attempts at innovating or going after a new audience.

The obvious alternative on the next deal will be that the TV rights go to Bell and TSN, and they've done a strong job of positioning themselves with a deeper pool of quality analysts and thanks to their "less to lose" situation, they've been able to land on programming that has worked well regionally and could translate into success nationally as well. I'll admit my bias towards the TSN broadcast, but when it comes to who gets the contract it won't be about the product pitch, it will be about the dollars and that's where Amazon or other streaming services could be an interesting third option.

The NHL has also had success with breaking up the national coverage in the US between ESPN and TNT, and there is plenty of reason to believe they'll explore that idea as well. TSN has suffered without national rights and Sportsnet was ill-equipped to deliver on having them in their entirety. With Amazon already making an appearance on Monday nights going forward, a divided approach might be the big picture approach that Bell and Rogers want, as the approach also allows their cable providing services to sell more channels.

From a Leafs perspective, the contract is interesting because it's a "Mom and Dad are fighting" relationship at MLSE. While it's hard to imagine that telecommunications monopolists have much to complain about, they will, and this is probably where the operations side of things being handled more directly by Keith Pelley instead of the board will serve them well.
<h3>Sponsored by bet365</h3>
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Expansion, CBA negotiations and the Canadian broadcast rights highlight Bill Daly’s league update

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