The contract negotiations, or lack thereof, between Mitch Marner and the Toronto Maple Leafs are rightfully going to dominate the headlines going into free agency. The negotiations with the Leafs’ second-biggest fish, John Tavares, are likely going to feature far fewer dramatics.

While Marner is facing unrestricted free agency for the first time in the prime of his career, Tavares is going to be 35 in September and likely has a different set of priorities than Marner does. Tavares has a young family, so continuing to raise his children close to home while playing for his childhood team, which is very much still in the picture for playoff contention, seems like a no-brainer for both sides.

Sportsnet Insider Elliotte Friedman joined Matt Marchese and Mike Futa on Sportsnet’s The Fan Hockey Show and speculated that Tavares could get a deal similar to the one signed by Tampa Bay Lightning forward Yanni Gourde this week.

Gourde, who is one year younger than Tavares, recently inked a six-year contract worth $2.33 million annually, and while he isn’t as skilled offensively as Tavares, signing a contract for six years at that kind of price is an extreme discount. It’s the type of deal that essentially says, ‘hey, I like playing here and want to finish my career here,’ and the Lightning shared Gourde’s sentiment. Tanev, meanwhile, signed a similar deal after the Maple Leafs acquired his rights last June. He’s on the books for five more seasons at $4.5 million annually, and while he might not play out every year of the contract, the deal shows a desire from both sides to stay together.

Tavares, who scored 38 goals in 2024-25 and proved he’s got plenty left in the tank, will almost certainly command more than Gourde did, and likely Tanev too. That said, the longer the extension is, the lower the average annual value (AAV) will likely be. Either way, there’s just over three weeks left before free agency, and it’s safe to assume a deal will get done between the Leafs and Tavares.