After the Leafs took the 2-1 series lead in Game 3 on Friday, they had to know that the Lightning would come back fighting hard in Game 4 last night. Perhaps that fear and anticipation was a self-fulfilling prophecy, as the Lightning wiped the floor with Toronto as they did in Game 2.
When the Lightning got to the early lead, it felt almost like fate. The Leafs were meant to lose this one, badly, to charge them up for Game 5 at home (or so I hope, at least). Here was the first one, a one-time clapper from @Steven Stamkos:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
Stamkos gets one going ⚡️ fast! 🚨<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/StanleyCup?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#StanleyCup</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GoBolts?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#GoBolts</a> <a href="https://t.co/8OQrscoOWg">pic.twitter.com/8OQrscoOWg</a>
&mdash; Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) <a href="https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1523443862655488002?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 8, 2022</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
The misfortune continued from there and, since this is The Leafs Nation, I&#8217;ll spare you having to scroll through all of the gifs of the Lightning goals that eventually put them up 5-0, and then 7-3 with the two empy netters.
As the Leafs won Game 3 with just 3 goals past @Andrei Vasilevskiy, the Lightning beat @Jack Campbell for 5 in the first two periods and their other 2 were on an empty net. @Erik Kallgren came into the game in relief of Campbell to re-energize the team, and stopped all 8 shots he faced.
And just like they had in Game 2, the Leafs were able to get a few consolation goals. Meaningless for this game, but a reminder that you can score against this team, and something to carry into the next game. The Leafs again scored 3 on one of the best playoff goalies around in Vasilevskiy, but it wasn&#8217;t enough.
Here were the two goals scored by the previously goal-less @William Nylander:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
William Nylander gets the Leafs 🚨 <a href="https://t.co/tUmqMZcrbo">pic.twitter.com/tUmqMZcrbo</a>
&mdash; Omar (@TicTacTOmar) <a href="https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1523472136836620288?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 9, 2022</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
Another one for Willy! 
Nylander and Tavares combine for the <a href="https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MapleLeafs</a> 2nd of the night 
 <a href="https://t.co/qChERoajh4">pic.twitter.com/qChERoajh4</a>
&mdash; Hockey Night in Canada (@hockeynight) <a href="https://twitter.com/hockeynight/status/1523478198285381632?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 9, 2022</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Jake Muzzin got a third one with a beautiful point shot:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
Jake Muzzin gets a shot through traffic 🚨 <a href="https://t.co/7JSFcMf5hZ">pic.twitter.com/7JSFcMf5hZ</a>
&mdash; Omar (@TicTacTOmar) <a href="https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1523478287686635520?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 9, 2022</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Last night&#8217;s loss was a disappointing effort, but it&#8217;s part of a pattern.
The narrative here is easy: the Lightning and Leafs seem to be trading lopsided games. <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/2022/05/07/the-leafs-vs-lightning-series-numbers-are-concerning-and-encouraging-depending-on-which-numbers-you-mean/">As I wrote in my Staturday column this week,</a> the Leafs in Games 1 and 3 were guilty of not keeping the gas pedal pressed down in their two wins. Last night, and in Game 2, the Lightning crashed hard and kept crashing. The Lightning have this ability to drive themselves to push harder even when they have the lead, and that&#8217;s something that most teams lack. That&#8217;s why they&#8217;ve won the Stanley Cup twice in a row, and have their sights set on a three-peat.
That was the story again in Game 4.
Even though the Leafs were able to put 3 goals in the net, the shot numbers were steadily controlled by Tampa Bay throughout the game, as shown in the chart below from <a href="https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20212022&amp;game=30124&amp;view=limited#gameflow">Natural Stat Trick</a>. Toronto was never able to pull the shot attempts into their favour, despite going down so early in the game.
<img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-81263" src="https://i0.wp.com/theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2022/05/20212022-30124-cfdiff-5v5.png?resize=751%2C350&#038;ssl=1" alt="" width="751" height="350" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/publish.theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2022/05/20212022-30124-cfdiff-5v5.png?w=751&amp;ssl=1 751w, https://i0.wp.com/publish.theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2022/05/20212022-30124-cfdiff-5v5.png?resize=300%2C140&amp;ssl=1 300w" sizes="(max-width: 751px) 100vw, 751px" data-recalc-dims="1" />
<h2>Looking Ahead</h2>
Game 5 will be back in Toronto on Tuesday night at Scotiabank Arena. The game will be at 7:30pm Eastern. The Leafs will look to trade games as they have throughout the series so far, and get the crucial third win in the series, giving them two chances to win out the series in Games 6 and 7.
Hot take or not, I think they&#8217;ll win Games 5 and 6. Go Leafs go.

More from The Leafs Nation:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://theleafsnation.com/2022/05/07/game-3-recap-jack-campbell-and-maple-leafs-depth-come-up-big-in-5-2-win-over-the-lightning/" rel="v:url follow" data-wpel-link="internal">Game #3 Recap: Maple Leafs’ depth and Jack Campbell come up big in 5-2 win over the Lightning</a> by Nick Barden</li>
<li>
<a href="https://theleafsnation.com/2022/05/07/jack-campbell-gave-the-maple-leafs-exactly-what-they-needed-to-win-game-3-over-the-lightning/" rel="v:url follow" data-wpel-link="internal">Jack Campbell gave the Maple Leafs exactly what they needed to win Game 3 over the Lightning</a> by David Alter
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://theleafsnation.com/2022/05/04/maple-leafs-new-assistant-coaches-already-making-impact-in-the-playoffs/" rel="v:url follow" data-wpel-link="internal">Maple Leafs’ new assistant coaches already making an impact in the playoffs</a> by Kyle Cushman
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<li><a href="https://theleafsnation.com/2022/05/05/it-was-my-15th-season-i-love-playing-in-toronto-and-i-dont-know-rich-clunes-hockey-career-hangs-in-the-balance/" rel="v:url follow" data-wpel-link="internal">‘It was my 15th season, I love playing in Toronto, and I don’t know’ Rich Clune’s hockey-playing career hangs in the balance</a> by Nick Barden</li>
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After the Leafs took the 2-1 series lead in Game 3 on Friday, they had to know that the Lightning would come back fighting hard in Game 4 last night. Perhaps that fear and anticipation was a self-fulfilling prophecy, as the Lightning wiped the floor with Toronto as they did in Game 2.

When the Lightning got to the early lead, it felt almost like fate. The Leafs were meant to lose this one, badly, to charge them up for Game 5 at home (or so I hope, at least). Here was the first one, a one-time clapper from @Steven Stamkos:

https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1523443862655488002?s=20&amp;t=3PmKbteTRmg9dnbSTf2grQ

The misfortune continued from there and, since this is The Leafs Nation, I'll spare you having to scroll through all of the gifs of the Lightning goals that eventually put them up 5-0, and then 7-3 with the two empy netters.

As the Leafs won Game 3 with just 3 goals past @Andrei Vasilevskiy, the Lightning beat @Jack Campbell for 5 in the first two periods and their other 2 were on an empty net. @Erik Kallgren came into the game in relief of Campbell to re-energize the team, and stopped all 8 shots he faced.

And just like they had in Game 2, the Leafs were able to get a few consolation goals. Meaningless for this game, but a reminder that you can score against this team, and something to carry into the next game. The Leafs again scored 3 on one of the best playoff goalies around in Vasilevskiy, but it wasn't enough.

Here were the two goals scored by the previously goal-less @William Nylander:

https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1523472136836620288?s=20&amp;t=3PmKbteTRmg9dnbSTf2grQ

https://twitter.com/hockeynight/status/1523478198285381632?s=20&amp;t=3PmKbteTRmg9dnbSTf2grQ

Jake Muzzin got a third one with a beautiful point shot:

https://twitter.com/TicTacTOmar/status/1523478287686635520?s=20&amp;t=3PmKbteTRmg9dnbSTf2grQ

Last night's loss was a disappointing effort, but it's part of a pattern.

The narrative here is easy: the Lightning and Leafs seem to be trading lopsided games. <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/2022/05/07/the-leafs-vs-lightning-series-numbers-are-concerning-and-encouraging-depending-on-which-numbers-you-mean/">As I wrote in my Staturday column this week,</a> the Leafs in Games 1 and 3 were guilty of not keeping the gas pedal pressed down in their two wins. Last night, and in Game 2, the Lightning crashed hard and kept crashing. The Lightning have this ability to drive themselves to push harder even when they have the lead, and that's something that most teams lack. That's why they've won the Stanley Cup twice in a row, and have their sights set on a three-peat.

That was the story again in Game 4.

Even though the Leafs were able to put 3 goals in the net, the shot numbers were steadily controlled by Tampa Bay throughout the game, as shown in the chart below from <a href="https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20212022&amp;game=30124&amp;view=limited#gameflow">Natural Stat Trick</a>. Toronto was never able to pull the shot attempts into their favour, despite going down so early in the game.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-81263" src="https://theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2022/05/20212022-30124-cfdiff-5v5.png" alt="" width="751" height="350" />
<h2>Looking Ahead</h2>
Game 5 will be back in Toronto on Tuesday night at Scotiabank Arena. The game will be at 7:30pm Eastern. The Leafs will look to trade games as they have throughout the series so far, and get the crucial third win in the series, giving them two chances to win out the series in Games 6 and 7.

Hot take or not, I think they'll win Games 5 and 6. Go Leafs go.



More from The Leafs Nation:
<ul>
 	<li><a href="https://theleafsnation.com/2022/05/07/game-3-recap-jack-campbell-and-maple-leafs-depth-come-up-big-in-5-2-win-over-the-lightning/" rel="v:url follow" data-wpel-link="internal">Game #3 Recap: Maple Leafs’ depth and Jack Campbell come up big in 5-2 win over the Lightning</a> by Nick Barden</li>
 	<li>
<a href="https://theleafsnation.com/2022/05/07/jack-campbell-gave-the-maple-leafs-exactly-what-they-needed-to-win-game-3-over-the-lightning/" rel="v:url follow" data-wpel-link="internal">Jack Campbell gave the Maple Leafs exactly what they needed to win Game 3 over the Lightning</a> by David Alter
</li>
 	<li>
<a href="https://theleafsnation.com/2022/05/04/maple-leafs-new-assistant-coaches-already-making-impact-in-the-playoffs/" rel="v:url follow" data-wpel-link="internal">Maple Leafs’ new assistant coaches already making an impact in the playoffs</a> by Kyle Cushman
</li>
 	<li><a href="https://theleafsnation.com/2022/05/05/it-was-my-15th-season-i-love-playing-in-toronto-and-i-dont-know-rich-clunes-hockey-career-hangs-in-the-balance/" rel="v:url follow" data-wpel-link="internal">‘It was my 15th season, I love playing in Toronto, and I don’t know’ Rich Clune’s hockey-playing career hangs in the balance</a> by Nick Barden</li>
</ul>
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Game #4 Recap: Lightning overwhelm the Leafs 7-3 to tie the series

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