In case you missed it while enjoying your Friday night, the Colorado Avalanched traded Mikko Rantanen to the Carolina Hurricanes in exchange for Martin Necas as part of a three-team blockbuster deal, the biggest NHL transaction in recent memory.

Colorado receives Necas, Jack Drury, a 2025 second-round pick and a 2026 fourth-round pick, Carolina gets Rantanen at a discount, with Chicago inexplicably retaining 50 percent of his salary to broker the deal, along with Taylor Hall, while Chicago receives a 2025 third-round pick and the universal scorn of the NHL.

Setting aside the Blackhawks’ incompetence in this deal, players of Rantanen’s calibre simply don’t get moved every day. He’s one of the NHL’s best players and he had institutional value to the Avalanche after winning a Stanley Cup, or perhaps that’s an antiquated notion in this day and age, under the salary cap.

Rantanen was often considered the closest parable to Marner, because of their impending free agent statuses, their age, importance to their teams and draft class — ten years ago, Marner went fourth overall, while Rantanen was selected 10th by the Avalanche. This isn’t meant to be an unnecessary shot at Marner, but it is worth noting that Rantanen is the superior player, who helped win a Stanley Cup, and they’re having comparable seasons this year.

They’re different players with different scenarios — Rantanen is an Avalanche legend, full stop, whereas Marner could very well become one of the greatest Leafs of all-time, but is still held in contempt by parts of the fan base for a series of underwhelming playoff performances, and both franchises are in different places, despite their cores being in the same contention window. Winning does wonders, and the Avalanche are trying to remain agile, while the Maple Leafs are still navigating the cap deftly and haven’t been to the conference finals during Marner’s tenure.

Here are four scenarios that Marner could encounter, with Rantanen operating as a precedent of sorts:

I thought Rantanen was going to be a lifelong member of the Avalanche, but the NHL is a business after all, and if he can get traded firmly in his prime, so can Marner. Toronto may need to entertain this scenario ahead of the trade deadline, if it becomes clear that Marner won’t sign for anything under a certain number — many believe the untenable point is somewhere around $13 million per season, and it’s believed that Rantanen may demand an extension with an annual average value of $14 million per year.

Colorado determined it couldn’t reach an extension with Rantanen and struck a deal immediately where it recouped some value — Martin Necas is an incredibly underrated playmaker, and his straight-line speed will fit into the Avalanche’s turbo-paced style of play, Jack Drury provides some secondary value and the Avalanche restore some draft capital as well. Rantanen is the best player in this deal, and the Hurricanes hit an Aaron Judge-level home run for capitalizing on a team that had to get rid of a superior asset, but the Avalanche did reasonably well to get some key pieces in return.

Toronto may be forced to include Marner as the best player in a trade, which would come as a shock to the some core members of the team, as the club works its way back towards another playoff run. Marner has been Toronto’s MVP this season – with due consideration to William Nylander, Joseph Woll and Chris Tanev — and has repeatedly stated he wants to remain with the Maple Leafs.

If the Leafs can find a partner before the deadline and strike another blockbuster deal, where it gets a star player comparable to Necas, an emerging under-25 player like Drury and two picks, it would make sense, provided that talks broke down between Marner’s camp and the organization. It’s a copycat league after all, and few have navigated the salary cap era as well as Joe Sakic and Chris MacFarland, although the real winner of Friday’s trade was Hurricanes general manager Eric Tulsky — provided he can sign Rantanen to a multi-year extension.

It’s worth noting that Marner has an extensive no-movement clause and won’t waive it to go just anywhere, especially considering his hometown roots in Toronto. This is becoming an increasingly appealing option — although it’s unclear if Brad Treliving and his staff share this opinion.

The feel-good option, and the one I’m in favour of! Marner is one of the greatest Leafs players of all-time and he’s still firmly in his prime. Eight years of cumulative playoff failure has been enough for large factions of the fan base to turn on Marner, but on a night-to-night basis, he’s one of the best players in the NHL, he excels in all situations, he’s an elite playmaker and he’s pacing towards the first 100-point campaign of his career.

Marner told media he’s not discussing his contract any further until the season ends, letting his agent, Darren Ferris, handle negotiations on his behalf. That’s more than fair! It will be incumbent upon Treliving to make this his first priority ahead of the deadline, while trying to get a third-line centre and some defensive depth going into the playoffs. Treliving also needs to find a new deal for John Tavares, but Marner is the priority. This is the option that would make all parties feel good — and the fans who have turned on Marner may go insane.

The calculated bet: the presumable reason why Marner hasn’t signed a long-term extension with the Maple Leafs rests on the idea that he could inflate his market value with a superlative playoff campaign. It’s a bet on himself and the Leafs to make an extended run, and while the team has overhauled its roster top-down, with Craig Berube implementing a style of play that lends itself well to playoff hockey, it also carries inherent risk. If Marner and the Leafs are bounced again in the first round, with the star winger failing to score at his regular season rate, his market value drops, and he either signs at a diminished rate — in relative terms of course, imagine getting $80 million over eight years and being upset about it — or finds a new home, much to the chagrin of Leafs fans everywhere.

If Marner and the Leafs go on an extended run — we’re talking about the conference finals and beyond — his market value escalates and the team may be forced to sign him to a top-of-the-market deal, while billing it as a love story of a homegrown talent becoming the NHL’s highest-paid winger. Winning changes everything and if this is the year for the Maple Leafs, Marner will deserve every penny. It’s also a scenario that causes anxiety for all parties involved.

This is simply untenable and may inspire the greatest fan revolt in Maple Leafs history. Marner is too valuable to the Maple Leafs’ organization for him to walk away for nothing. Joe Sakic and his team recouped some good, but uneven value for Rantanen, a player the organization drafted, developed and turned into a bonafide superstar. If Marner elects to test free agency and the Maple Leafs gain nothing in return, it could have franchise-altering consequences. Let the games begin!