The tenor of a series can certainly change quickly and it’s been a pleasant surprise to see the Toronto Maple Leafs win in transition and on the counterattack through the opening two games against the Florida Panthers. It was widely expected to be a cagey affair where both teams would have to grind out goals, while limiting chances at the net-front. Toronto enters Game 3 with a commanding 2-0 lead in large part due to the fact that it is killing Florida when it pushes way too far up the ice, something we didn’t expect to see, given its discipline and adherence to its system under head coach Paul Maurice.

Florida allowed the fifth-fewest high-danger goals (72) at 5-on-5 this season, while Toronto allowed the fourth-fewest (67) so there was always an expectation that this series could be a war of attrition. The defining moments of the series have involved the Maple Leafs flying off the rush, and we’ll get into it here.

Since the trade deadline, the Maple Leafs have shown an increased propensity to get their defencemen active in the rush. This is partly due to Brandon Carlo’s stabilizing effect on his partnership with Morgan Rielly, allowing his linemate to play to his strengths and get involved offensively, without worrying about getting caught out of position. There have been occasional mistakes defending the rush, but Rielly has been a net-positive for the Leafs, and it’s because he’s seeking his own offence responsibly. Here’s a clear example from Game 1, where Rielly re-stores the Maple Leafs’ 3-1 lead in the first period.

You’ll see a common theme here: the Panthers are getting caught way too far up the ice in the offensive zone, and it’s allowed the Maple Leafs to make quick reads, using their elite speed on the counterattack to great effect. Panthers forward Eetu Luostarinen can’t handle a pass from Brad Marchand, Anton Lundell falls during the puck battle, and Rielly immediately recognizes he has numbers, with John Tavares taking off on the opposite wing, once Nylander has the puck. Panthers defenceman Dmitry Kulikov is also out of the play after getting tangled up with Max Pacioretty near the Leafs’ net-front. Rielly has a clear 2-on-1 with Tavares, looks him off and then wires a wrist shot past Sergei Bobrovsky, a textbook example of efficient counterattacking play.

This could be a consistent theme throughout Game 3-4: while Toronto has certainly played well against the defending champions, it has only controlled 34 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5, so winning off the rush may be a crucial element to sustained success. Florida fought its way back into Game 1 after Anthony Stolarz’s injury, before Matthew Knies restored some calm with a breakaway goal. And once again, this may largely be a function of the Panthers being too aggressive on the forecheck.

Toronto wins several puck battles before Knies gets behind the defence: Auston Matthews tips the puck over to Chris Tanev, who banks it off the boards, Mitch Marner wins a 50-50 battle against Nate Schmidt, and Knies creates an outlet by anticipating a pass off the wall. Matthew Tkachuk inexplicably goes for a line change, and Uvis Balinskis can’t jump over the boards quickly enough to catch Knies in full burst. Knies races in and tucks it neatly past Bobrovsky to effectively close out Game 1 for the Leafs.

William Nylander has been the best skater in the series through two games and may be in the lead for the Conn Smythe Trophy at this juncture of the playoffs. All eyes are on Nylander in Game 3. Maple Leafs head coach Craig Berube lauded Nylander’s puck skills and change of direction on multiple occasions following Game 2, while Panthers defenceman Gustav Forsling spoke about the importance of limiting his time and space ahead of Game 3.

Nylander scored a timely goal in Game 2, as the Panthers held a 2-1 lead in the second period. And once again, it’s the Leafs’ superior recognition of their time and space that leads to this goal. Max Pacioretty swats Seth Jones’ passing attempt and wins the puck, as Nylander and Tavares immediately realize there’s an opportunity to attack. Niko Mikkola simply can’t keep pace with Nylander, Jones tries to cut out the passing lane for Pacioretty but it’s ineffective. Tavares also expertly drops back into the trailer spot, to create a 3-on-2 if Pacioretty doesn’t fire the pass over to Nylander. It’s a number of small things that go well, which starts with Pacioretty. Florida was punished for getting caught out in the offensive zone, and it’ll be curious to see if Maurice adjusts his instructions on the forecheck — probably not!

Winning puck battles and recognizing opportunity, time and space are the key principles to counterattacking hockey. Scott Laughton wins a puck battle at centre ice, similar to Pacioretty on Nylander’s goal, and gets the puck over to Rielly. Rielly is already surveying the ice before he receives the pass and one-touches it over to Steven Lorentz who is cutting through the middle. Florida has committed four bodies to Rielly’s side of the ice, so when Lorentz dishes the puck over to Max Domi, there’s no one to impede his shooting lane. It was a beauty for Domi indeed, and the Leafs are winning battles, while taking advantage of some uncharacteristic mistakes from the Panthers.

During the past three seasons, the Panthers have proven to be the NHL’s best defensive team, and a club that innately understands how to punish teams for their mistakes. It’s been a bit jarring — or from our perspective, a welcome development — that the Panthers are allowing the Leafs to get out on the break once they’ve been caught out of position. Toronto is more defensively disciplined than its previous iterations, playing to Berube’s principles, and can seemingly win any style of game. We’ll see how Maurice and company respond in Game 3.