Anytime you can start off a post by saying “these numbers don’t mean sh*t” you are probably wasting your time and your reader’s time in putting this out there. That’s likely what is going on when taking a look at how the Maple Leafs have performed individually against their likely Atlantic Division opponents over the year and the numbers come with grains of salt and nuggets of truth. The regular season, in general, is a poor predictor for playoff outcomes because the regular season is measuring how a team does night in, night out against an ever changing opponent.

While adjustments may occur, there aren’t too many situations where Craig Berube and his staff are going to sit the players down and develop specific game plans for how they will play against their opponent. A best-of-seven series is a much different beast, and under Sheldon Keefe, it is that transition to matching to an opponent that the Leafs seemed to struggle with or arguably they struggled with their opponent matching to them.

That said, there is a story to tell from the numbers. Even if some of them are from October, some from April and all are small samples that aren’t going to account for who was in or out of the lineup that night, and who had a good sleep the night before, etc. At the end of the day, here’s the story and at least based on the regular season, the Leafs do their best work against the Lightning compared to the Panthers or Senators.

If you are looking for a series where the Leafs’ big dogs will bark, Tampa (on paper) looks like it will be it:

The series sweep by the Maple Leafs is also encouraging and with their top five forwards all at or over a point per game it would be a fun matchup.

The interesting catches here are at that only Nick Robertson, Chris Tanev, and Max Pacioretty have goals against the Lightning outside of those top five players. There is also something unpredictable about the fact that Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Simon Benoit see so much time against the Lightning. Some of this comes down to the two teams trading special teams chances frequently but OEL being the top time on ice guy is bizarre.

As for goaltending, both Stolarz and Woll have two wins and respectable save percentages (.919 for Stolarz and .915 for Woll) so it seems like you can’t go wrong in net.

There have been close games and decent efforts but despite having a collection of former cup winning Panthers on the Leafs roster, they haven’t cracked the Florida nut. One win is nice and all, but out of four games that isn’t going to provide much optimism especially when the Panthers have a number of players who will conveniently be healthy as soon as the playoffs start.

Wave goodbye to point per game players, but at least three goals in four games from John Tavares can lead to some optimism. The scoring is even more focused at the top of the lineup and Max Domi and Brandon Carlo are the only down the lineup players to pick up goals, with Carlo’s coming while in Boston.

The Leafs’ ice time is pretty balanced between the top five defencemen and beyond Marner and Matthews, there aren’t any forwards that stand out as having a higher amount of ice time either. What might be interesting here is the minimum ice time that Kampf has seen in comparison to other Leafs forwards. He might be a candidate for being outside of the lineup if the Leafs face the Panthers in favour of keeping Robertson or Holmberg in.

The Panthers, like the Lightning, were a divisional opponent that Berube did not want to play Ryan Reaves against.

As for goaltending, there is some significant difference on results. Stolarz has the one Leafs’ win against the Panthers but owns a .886 save percentage in his three games against his former club. Woll had just one game, a loss, against the Panthers, but had a .944 save percentage in the process. Small samples make for interesting narratives.

The optimism when it comes to a potential Battle of Ontario series is that the Leafs have the more talented roster. An edge might be given to the Senators on goaltending or defence but on paper the Leafs top end offensive talent should blow them away.

It definitely didn’t work out that way in the regular season series that Ottawa swept and held the Leafs off the scoresheet. If you are looking for a narrative it could be that the Senators were showing up with something to prove against the Leafs while Toronto was looking at it as just another game. Optimistically, if the Leafs put in the work to prepare for a seven game series against the Senators they would easily outmatch them. Pessimistically, the COVID-era playoff series against the Canadiens shows how the Leafs can flounder against an inferior opponent who knows how to limit access to Toronto’s favourite parts of the ice.

Brandon Carlo is the Leafs top offensive player against the Senators (with one of those points coming while he played for the Bruins.)

Not only did the Leafs have three losses they only scored three goals and I’m not sure there is much of a lesson to be learned here other than they have to do better and likely play Ottawa either differently or with a bit more respect in the next go around.

Stolarz had two starts to Woll’s one, but Woll had the better numbers in his appearance with a .913 save percentage compared to Stolarz’ .908 averaged over his two games.

Ice time shows the Leafs leaning heavily on their puck moving defencemen and it is also interesting to see that Berube gave a lot more time to Knies and Nylander in these games, likely driven by the score effects and the need for his most energetic offensive players to bring Toronto back into the contest.

In summary, the Lightning would be the ideal first round opponent but also the most unlikely one as it would require Tampa falling off and Florida finishing stronger than they’ve been playing.

Using the regular season results, the Senators look like the worst option but if a serious, ready to work Maple Leafs team shows up, the Senators and their “just happy to be here” attitude could get steamrolled.

The Panthers are the mystery box. There is something about facing a team that has been struggling down the stretch and relying on cold players rejoining the lineup. They also have played a lot more hockey in the past 12 months than the Leafs (save for OEL, Lorentz, and Stolarz) and that could catch up with them.

Like I said initially, here’s some information that doesn’t really mean much beyond being a quick reference for whatever opponent Toronto ends up facing.