The Toronto Maple Leafs are headed into another offseason following an early playoff exit, and for the first time, it seems like there may actually be seismic changes coming to the organization. The departure of Brendan Shanahan from the President of Hockey Operations role got the ball rolling, and with both Mitch Marner and John Tavares in need of new contracts, we may be looking at a Leafs team without all parts of the ‘Core Four’ take the ice for the first time since 2018-19.

Let’s just address the elephant in the room here. Marner is the domino that will shape this year’s offseason. By all accounts, the longtime Leaf will test free agency and is looking for a raise from the $10.6 million average annual value (AAV). The Leafs are going to have a decision to make here, and it goes way beyond whether they’d like him back in Toronto or not. It also depends on how much money they’re willing to pay him, or whether they believe they can use his cap space more efficiently. Regardless of what their plan is, it shouldn’t be influenced by the lack of fight the Carolina Hurricanes are putting up against the Florida Panthers in the Conference Final. The Hurricanes are down 3-1 to the Panthers, shutting them out in Game 4 to keep them on the ropes for another day, but overall, they have not put up much of a fight in the series.

It feels like the fanbase debates this every year. It happened when they lost to the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2021-22, who eventually went on to the Cup Final. It happened in 2022-23 when the Leafs lost to the Panthers in the second round, when Florida eventually made their way to the Cup final. And, now, watching a team like Carolina flounder against Florida after the Leafs managed to push their series against the Panthers to seven games, some are suggesting they run it back again. Because, after all, they were one goal away from making the Conference Final. Shouldn’t this indicate that the Leafs aren’t as far off as we might think from breaking that barrier? Maybe Florida is just that good.

Maybe it does. But that doesn’t mean the Leafs should stick to a nine-year vision that’s won them a total of two playoff series wins in that span.

For a fanbase as rightfully frustrated as Toronto’s, there’s still a subsection of fans who are afraid of change. It’s the mindset of ‘yeah, it hasn’t been great, but imagine how much worse it would be’. I can respect this viewpoint, because it’s true. Would you rather support a team that makes the playoffs every year and gives itself a shot at the Stanley Cup or a team that misses the playoffs every year and can’t attract free agents to save its life? The issue with this mindset is that it implies the only two options going forward are to run it back or move on from somebody like Marner and immediately revert back to the Brian Burke days. That’s not the case, and it’s the sort of mindset that has held the Leafs back in the past.

It’s also important to note that this issue is far more complex than ‘sign Marner, don’t let your talent walk’ or ‘Let Marner walk and the team will be equipped to make a run’. Nobody is doubting that Marner, as a player, will be hard to replace. He’s a player capable of 100 points with Selke-level defence this season. He’s going to be paid by somebody, and he’s earned the right to test the market. The idea of letting him walk is more about how they can use the cap space rather than making a change for the sake of making a change.

If the Leafs’ top three outlets for offence in 2025-26 are Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Matthew Knies, they’re in a good place. It became evident against the Panthers that their depth was completely outclassed compared to Florida’s, and with its third line effectively shutting down the Matthews line, it left the Leafs’ bottom-six spinning their tires against the Panthers’ top six. Even Florida’s fourth line was eons better than Toronto’s was. The idea of moving on from Marner is less about moving on from the player and more about not committing nearly half of your cap space to your top offensive players.

The Leafs seem to have a defensive corps locked in for next season, but up front, they’re looking at the possibility of having to add a middle-six centre, a top-six winger, and ideally another middle-six winger. It’s a lot easier said than done, and they have to be careful with it, considering the players that are available this summer, but if they go into 2025-26 with all their money tied up in three players, it’s going to be another rinse-and-repeat type of situation. If Marner walks, and they find a way to get out of contracts with players like David Kampf and Calle Jarnkrok, they’ll have close to $30 million in cap space to work with and a summer to reshape the way this team is built.

I understand the apprehension that comes with parting with a player as talented as Marner. We’ve seen talent walk from this team and find success elsewhere more times than we can count. But it’s important to ask yourself what your expectations for this hockey team are. If you’re content with a strong regular season and a lottery ticket in the playoffs, give Marner whatever he wants and try again. If you’re okay with the possibility of regression in the regular season for the greater goal of building a deep, playoff-built hockey team that will leave it all out on the ice the way the Panthers do, it would be wise to try something different next season, no matter how close they came against the Panthers.