<p>From the outset of the regular season, the Toronto Maple Leafs set out to accomplish their goals<a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/maple-leafs-stanley-cup-pursuit-incrementalism-push-forward-treliving"> through incrementalism, rather than radical disruption</a>. Every game holds increasingly greater value, we can&#8217;t fast forward to the playoffs, but the Maple Leafs are putting together an excellent campaign one win at a time, in pursuit of their larger goal. And with this in mind, with every game holding slightly greater importance than the last, the Leafs are presented with a golden opportunity to send the most vulnerable Boston Bruins team in recent memory into a spiral.</p>
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<p>Prior to Tuesday&#8217;s showdown, which holds the weight of a Saturday night marquee, the Bruins appear to be on the ropes. Charlie McAvoy suffered a shoulder injury during the 4 Nations Face-Off with no timeline set for his return, while Hampus Lindholm will likely miss the remainder of the year, with a fractured patella, and the Bruins are suddenly without their two best defencemen during the stretch run of the regular season. Boston is now forced to move all of its defenders up throughout the lineup and will be running a top pair of Nikita Zadorov and Brandon Carlo, a duo that has controlled just 38 percent of the expected goals at <a href="https://www.naturalstattrick.com/pairings.php">5-on-5</a> with a minus-1 goal differential in just under 225 minutes of action this season. For a team that was often revered for its defensive structure, the foundation is beginning to show some cracks.</p>
<p>Elite goaltending and defensive structure masked the fact that the 2023-24 Bruins were a below-average offensive team, and if you&#8217;re in the camp that believes that Maple Leafs writers and fans can&#8217;t make that argument, pointing to the scoreboard, that&#8217;s all well and good, but it distracts from the fundamental truth. David Pastrnak is a one-man offence unto himself for the second consecutive year, with 28 goals and 69 points in 58 games, with a 24-point lead over Brad Marchand. Pavel Zacha is the Bruins&#8217; third-leading scorer with 12 goals and 33 points and these aren&#8217;t the Bruins of yesteryear that could roll four lines comfortably. It has been the David Pastrnak show and the Bruins are tied with the struggling Chicago Blackhawks for 25th, with 103 goals at 5-on-5. It&#8217;s not like the 2024-25 Maple Leafs are an offensive juggernaut either, but they&#8217;ve become an elite defensive team, accelerated by elite goaltending, which can&#8217;t be said of the Bruins anymore.</p>
<p>It was just last summer when the Bruins held one of the <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/how-the-boston-bruins-can-leverage-scarcity-in-the-goaltending-market">ultimate luxuries</a>, with two elite goaltenders, but through the 70 percent mark of the 2024-25 campaign, it appears that they may have bet on the wrong goalie. Although prevailing logic dictated that the Bruins could only pay one of Linus Ullmark or Jeremy Swayman, they may have gambled on the wrong candidate. Boston traded Linus Ullmark to Ottawa, in a package centred around Joonas Korpisalo. Neither Swayman nor Korpisalo have performed anywhere close to expectations. Swayman has saved -1.6 goals above expected via <a href="https://moneypuck.com/goalies.htm">MoneyPuck</a>, with a .898 save percentage in all situations, while Korpisalo hasn&#8217;t fared any better with a .891 save percentage and -2.1 goals saved above expected.</p>
<p>The partnership between Swayman and Ullmark was the model to follow, and the Maple Leafs may have replicated it with the Anthony Stolarz-Joseph Woll tandem excelling. Woll has saved 13.4 goals above expected, while Stolarz ranks just behind him with 13.3 goals saved above expected, the 9th and 10th-best totals in the NHL, respectively. Stolarz has played 19 games in large part due to a knee injury that held him out of the holiday season and sports a .928 save percentage, which would count as the NHL&#8217;s best if he had appeared in one more game this season. For all intents and purposes, the Maple Leafs have taken the Bruins&#8217; prior advantage and <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/maple-leafs-are-placing-calculated-bet-on-small-sample-excellence-in-goal">wielded it to perfection</a>. It&#8217;s just a matter of time before Stolarz and Woll come up with their own iconic post-game celebration, too.</p>
<p>Boston is currently out of a playoff spot and may be considering the unthinkable, as Marchand is on the trade market, although he has repeatedly and emphatically stated that he wants to remain with the club for the duration of his career. The notion that the Bruins are even entertaining trading their 36-year-old captain speaks to the idea that the foundation is beginning to crumble, and <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/2025-nhl-trade-deadline-pressure-gauge-which-teams-are-all-in">they could be sellers</a> at the deadline, with Trent Frederic and Justin Brazeau both emerging as intriguing <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/2-weeks-before-nhl-trade-deadline-carolina-hurricanes-mikko-rantanen-trade-targets-board">trade candidates</a>. Frederic and Brazeau can both play bully ball and perhaps net some future assets for a Bruins team that has gone all-in, but perhaps has run out of time.</p>
<p>Joe Sacco has already replaced Jim Montgomery as head coach, as the Bruins seem to be running out of moves, and running out of time. It would be a perfect night for the Leafs to add to their Atlantic Division lead with a victory in their house of horrors, which may not be as daunting anymore, following Mitch Marner&#8217;s sensational performance at the <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/7-takeaways-from-canada-usa-mcdavid-gets-iconic-moment-marner-outstanding-playmaker">4 Nations Face-Off final</a>. It is just one regular season game after all, but the value of each contest compounds, and Game 58 presents the Maple Leafs with a golden opportunity to capitalize on the most vulnerable Bruins team in recent memory.</p>
<p><em>All stats from NHL.com and Natural Stat Trick</em></p>
<h3>Sponsored by bet365</h3>
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From the outset of the regular season, the Toronto Maple Leafs set out to accomplish their goals<a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/maple-leafs-stanley-cup-pursuit-incrementalism-push-forward-treliving"> through incrementalism, rather than radical disruption</a>. Every game holds increasingly greater value, we can't fast forward to the playoffs, but the Maple Leafs are putting together an excellent campaign one win at a time, in pursuit of their larger goal. And with this in mind, with every game holding slightly greater importance than the last, the Leafs are presented with a golden opportunity to send the most vulnerable Boston Bruins team in recent memory into a spiral.
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Prior to Tuesday's showdown, which holds the weight of a Saturday night marquee, the Bruins appear to be on the ropes. Charlie McAvoy suffered a shoulder injury during the 4 Nations Face-Off with no timeline set for his return, while Hampus Lindholm will likely miss the remainder of the year, with a fractured patella, and the Bruins are suddenly without their two best defencemen during the stretch run of the regular season. Boston is now forced to move all of its defenders up throughout the lineup and will be running a top pair of Nikita Zadorov and Brandon Carlo, a duo that has controlled just 38 percent of the expected goals at <a href="https://www.naturalstattrick.com/pairings.php">5-on-5</a> with a minus-1 goal differential in just under 225 minutes of action this season. For a team that was often revered for its defensive structure, the foundation is beginning to show some cracks.

Elite goaltending and defensive structure masked the fact that the 2023-24 Bruins were a below-average offensive team, and if you're in the camp that believes that Maple Leafs writers and fans can't make that argument, pointing to the scoreboard, that's all well and good, but it distracts from the fundamental truth. David Pastrnak is a one-man offence unto himself for the second consecutive year, with 28 goals and 69 points in 58 games, with a 24-point lead over Brad Marchand. Pavel Zacha is the Bruins' third-leading scorer with 12 goals and 33 points and these aren't the Bruins of yesteryear that could roll four lines comfortably. It has been the David Pastrnak show and the Bruins are tied with the struggling Chicago Blackhawks for 25th, with 103 goals at 5-on-5. It's not like the 2024-25 Maple Leafs are an offensive juggernaut either, but they've become an elite defensive team, accelerated by elite goaltending, which can't be said of the Bruins anymore.

It was just last summer when the Bruins held one of the <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/how-the-boston-bruins-can-leverage-scarcity-in-the-goaltending-market">ultimate luxuries</a>, with two elite goaltenders, but through the 70 percent mark of the 2024-25 campaign, it appears that they may have bet on the wrong goalie. Although prevailing logic dictated that the Bruins could only pay one of Linus Ullmark or Jeremy Swayman, they may have gambled on the wrong candidate. Boston traded Linus Ullmark to Ottawa, in a package centred around Joonas Korpisalo. Neither Swayman nor Korpisalo have performed anywhere close to expectations. Swayman has saved -1.6 goals above expected via <a href="https://moneypuck.com/goalies.htm">MoneyPuck</a>, with a .898 save percentage in all situations, while Korpisalo hasn't fared any better with a .891 save percentage and -2.1 goals saved above expected.

The partnership between Swayman and Ullmark was the model to follow, and the Maple Leafs may have replicated it with the Anthony Stolarz-Joseph Woll tandem excelling. Woll has saved 13.4 goals above expected, while Stolarz ranks just behind him with 13.3 goals saved above expected, the 9th and 10th-best totals in the NHL, respectively. Stolarz has played 19 games in large part due to a knee injury that held him out of the holiday season and sports a .928 save percentage, which would count as the NHL's best if he had appeared in one more game this season. For all intents and purposes, the Maple Leafs have taken the Bruins' prior advantage and <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/maple-leafs-are-placing-calculated-bet-on-small-sample-excellence-in-goal">wielded it to perfection</a>. It's just a matter of time before Stolarz and Woll come up with their own iconic post-game celebration, too.

Boston is currently out of a playoff spot and may be considering the unthinkable, as Marchand is on the trade market, although he has repeatedly and emphatically stated that he wants to remain with the club for the duration of his career. The notion that the Bruins are even entertaining trading their 36-year-old captain speaks to the idea that the foundation is beginning to crumble, and <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/2025-nhl-trade-deadline-pressure-gauge-which-teams-are-all-in">they could be sellers</a> at the deadline, with Trent Frederic and Justin Brazeau both emerging as intriguing <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/2-weeks-before-nhl-trade-deadline-carolina-hurricanes-mikko-rantanen-trade-targets-board">trade candidates</a>. Frederic and Brazeau can both play bully ball and perhaps net some future assets for a Bruins team that has gone all-in, but perhaps has run out of time.

Joe Sacco has already replaced Jim Montgomery as head coach, as the Bruins seem to be running out of moves, and running out of time. It would be a perfect night for the Leafs to add to their Atlantic Division lead with a victory in their house of horrors, which may not be as daunting anymore, following Mitch Marner's sensational performance at the <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/7-takeaways-from-canada-usa-mcdavid-gets-iconic-moment-marner-outstanding-playmaker">4 Nations Face-Off final</a>. It is just one regular season game after all, but the value of each contest compounds, and Game 58 presents the Maple Leafs with a golden opportunity to capitalize on the most vulnerable Bruins team in recent memory.

<em>All stats from NHL.com and Natural Stat Trick</em>
<h3>Sponsored by bet365</h3>
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