The Leafs go into tonight’s game against the Flames having lost six of their last seven, with five of them seeing Frederik Andersen play in net (although he didn’t start against Ottawa). This has come while the Leafs have a 54.58% 5v5 CF% and a 56.39% 5v5 xGF%, which is fifth and fourth in the league during that span. The Leafs are clearly losing games because of Frederik Andersen, and unlike past seasons where this has been the case, it hasn’t been backed up by otherwise good to elite goaltending.

Campbell hasn’t gotten the crease much in his Leafs tenure, but when he has, he’s impressed. He has a .920 save percentage in 9 games with the Leafs, and a .951 in 3 games this season. It’s an incredibly small sample size, but his .918 career save percentage has at least earned him the benefit of the doubt, especially with Freddie playing as poorly as he has. If he plays well, there’s a good chance he at least gets to split the starts, although there’s reason to believe that that was the plan all along.

Of course, as I mentioned, we’re dealing with a very small sample size when talking about Campbell, so him being an improvement on Freddie is no guarantee. If not for play, then at least for durability, as Campbell hasn’t really seen a starter’s worth of games in his career, something that we at least know Fred can manage. But, if he doesn’t overtake Fred, then the least that can happen is that Campbell gives Fred some rest and he’s better prepared for a playoff run on a Leafs team poised to make a deep run.

Tonight may be one of the more important games of the Leafs season, or at least might be the biggest difference for their season.

Lineups

Toronto Maple Leafs

LW	C	RW	Forwards
JOE THORNTON Rating: 72.3#74 LW	AUSTON MATTHEWS Rating: 82.3#6 C	MITCH MARNER Rating: 76.6#18 RW	FL1 Rating Rating: 77.06#8 FL1
ALEX GALCHENYUK Rating: 70.8#115 LW	JOHN TAVARES Rating: 77.6#15 C	WILLIAM NYLANDER Rating: 76.1#23 RW	FL2 Rating Rating: 74.83#10 FL2
ILYA MIKHEYEV Rating: 74.0#42 LW	ALEXANDER KERFOOT Rating: 70.8#113 C	ZACH HYMAN Rating: 74.6#33 RW	FL3 Rating Rating: 73.14#6 FL3
WAYNE SIMMONDS Rating: 70.2#112 LW	PIERRE ENGVALL Rating: 71.0#98 C	JASON SPEZZA Rating: 69.4#126 RW	FL4 Rating Rating: 70.23#26 FL4

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS	Defense
MORGAN RIELLY Rating: 75.3#14 LD	T.J. BRODIE Rating: 74.2#27 RD	DL1 Rating Rating: 74.76#16 DL1
JAKE MUZZIN Rating: 75.1#17 LD	JUSTIN HOLL Rating: 72.0#61 RD	DL2 Rating Rating: 73.56#12 DL2
TRAVIS DERMOTT Rating: 71.7#83 LD	ZACH BOGOSIAN Rating: 71.4#76 RD	DL3 Rating Rating: 71.56#25 DL3

Calgary Flames

LW	C	RW	Forwards
MATTHEW TKACHUK Rating: 78.0#9 LW	ELIAS LINDHOLM Rating: 76.5#19 C	DILLON DUBE Rating: 70.3#108 RW	FL1 Rating Rating: 74.95#18 FL1
JOHNNY GAUDREAU Rating: 76.0#19 LW	SEAN MONAHAN Rating: 74.4#42 C	BRETT RITCHIE	FL2 Rating Rating: 73.23#19 FL2
MILAN LUCIC Rating: 70.7#103 LW	MIKAEL BACKLUND Rating: 75.5#30 C	ANDREW MANGIAPANE Rating: 74.2#36 RW	FL3 Rating Rating: 73.48#3 FL3
SAM BENNETT Rating: 69.6#127 LW	DEREK RYAN Rating: 72.0#83 C	JOSH LEIVO Rating: 71.7#85 RW	FL4 Rating Rating: 71.07#17 FL4

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS	Defense
MARK GIORDANO Rating: 77.9#6 LD	RASMUS ANDERSSON Rating: 73.5#36 RD	DL1 Rating Rating: 75.67#9 DL1
NOAH HANIFIN Rating: 73.3#49 LD	CHRIS TANEV Rating: 71.0#90 RD	DL2 Rating Rating: 72.16#23 DL2
JUUSO VALIMAKI Rating: 72.6#6 LD	NIKITA NESTEROV	DL3 Rating Rating: 72.42#10 DL3

Tale of the Tape

via Mark Norman

Leafs Player to Watch: Alex Galchenyuk

Galchenyuk made his Leafs debut last night, and while he wasn’t a huge difference maker, he seemed to fit right in on that second line with Tavares and Nylander, so it’ll be interesting to see what he can bring to the table tonight now that he’s settled in.

Flames Player to Watch: Johnny Gaudreau

I seem to always hear Gaudreau involved in trade rumours, or hear that he’s struggling, which always intrigues me if it’s a media thing or if there’s some legitimacy to it. It’ll make him interesting to watch to see what kind of impact he makes, or lack thereof.

Leafs Starting Goalie: Jack Campbell

As I mentioned before, Campbell gets the crease tonight, and it’ll be an important one for him and the Leafs, as playing well could be the first step to being the starting goalie for the Leafs who are in desperate need of stability there this season and beyond.

Flames Starting Goalie: David Rittich

I’m sure the Leafs and Leafs fans are still dealing with nightmares after the last series they played against Rittich, so it not being Markstrom tonight won’t make it any easier for the Leafs. It’ll be interesting to see if that game was a PDO bender or if Rittich really does have the Leafs number tonight.