<p>Jake Sanderson is one of the ascending stars in the NHL, and he&#8217;s arguably the most important player for the Ottawa Senators. Sanderson&#8217;s world-class skating ability allows him to facilitate exits with ease, and he played the 13th-most minutes of any skater during the regular season. He will be an undeniable force in this league, and he&#8217;s winning his minutes against the <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/">Toronto Maple Leafs</a> in his first playoff series of his career.</p>
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<p>He&#8217;s also incorrect about his team&#8217;s chances of surviving this matchup, as the Maple Leafs are <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/senators-travis-green-down-disheartening-least">commanding this series</a>, despite Sanderson&#8217;s stellar play.</p>
<p>&#8220;We&#8217;re right there. I think the series could easily be 2-1 us, obviously going into overtime twice. We&#8217;re so close,&#8221; Sanderson said Friday morning.</p>
<p>You can see through a wide lens why Sanderson would be outwardly confident. Sanderson holds a 60 percent share of the expected goals, a plus-six shot differential, while starting on offensive zone faceoffs exactly through one of his shifts at 5-on-5 via Natural Stat Trick. That&#8217;s all well and good, and it extends to his primary assignments, Mitch Marner and <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/matthew-knies-tipped-simon-benoit-overtime-winner">Matthew Knies</a>, where he holds a 70 percent share of the expected goals in 26 minutes against the Maple Leafs&#8217; top line. In the key department, however: Sanderson holds a -2 goal differential and hasn&#8217;t been on the ice for a single goal at 5-on-5, where the aggregate sum of the Senators&#8217; volume-based approach to shots hasn&#8217;t worked well at all against a patient Leafs team.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Jake Sanderson: &quot;We still have a chance so we are going to keep battling.&quot; <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GoSensGo?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#GoSensGo</a> <a href="https://t.co/gRnPOXZ0hZ">pic.twitter.com/gRnPOXZ0hZ</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Coming In Hot (@ComingInHotSens) <a href="https://twitter.com/ComingInHotSens/status/1915800946342326422?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 25, 2025</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>The numbers are a bit misleading too. Matthews, Marner and Knies have been excellent during this series, especially on the power play, but they&#8217;re more engaged in puck battles than ever before. All three players have been excellent defensively, with critical shot blocks and pass breakups throughout the series. Marner has six points, while Matthews has five, entering Saturday&#8217;s Game 4 and they look more confident than they&#8217;ve ever been during the postseason. It&#8217;s showing up where it matters.</p>
<p>Sanderson alone can&#8217;t win this series for the Senators, when Matthews is outplaying Brady Tkachuk, but that may be the least of the Senators&#8217; worries. Anthony Stolarz is pushing towards some way-too-early Conn Smythe Trophy consideration, clearly outshining Linus Ullmark. Toronto&#8217;s defence corps are as resolute as ever, while number six defenceman <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/simon-benoit-game-inflection-point-toronto-maple-leafs-timely-hero-battle-of-ontario">Simon Benoit elevated his game</a> in late March and never looked back, <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/simon-benoit-game-inflection-point-toronto-maple-leafs-timely-hero-battle-of-ontario">emerging as an overtime hero</a> in consecutive games. And it should be this way, too. Toronto looks every bit the part of an experienced team under a head coach with championship pedigree, playing a north-south, defence-first style, firmly in the midst of its contention window.</p>
<p>Ottawa shouldn&#8217;t be merely happy to be here, but it is getting a rude awakening as to what playoff hockey constitutes. Sanderson&#8217;s superior analytics are only a fractional part of the equation, especially when the actual goals tilt toward the Leafs&#8217; stars.</p>
<p>This series very well could be over by Saturday night, and while the Senators are looking for inspiration from the 2004 Boston Red Sox — an inexact comparison to be sure, as that team boasted multiple Hall of Famers — they may come up short against a better team. Sanderson has every right to be confident in his own play, and of course, no one&#8217;s expecting him to concede defeat, but the fact of the matter is that the Senators aren&#8217;t close to the Maple Leafs, at least not yet, and this series may constitute what playoff hockey looks like for the future iterations of their team.</p>
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Jake Sanderson is one of the ascending stars in the NHL, and he's arguably the most important player for the Ottawa Senators. Sanderson's world-class skating ability allows him to facilitate exits with ease, and he played the 13th-most minutes of any skater during the regular season. He will be an undeniable force in this league, and he's winning his minutes against the <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/">Toronto Maple Leafs</a> in his first playoff series of his career.
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He's also incorrect about his team's chances of surviving this matchup, as the Maple Leafs are <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/senators-travis-green-down-disheartening-least">commanding this series</a>, despite Sanderson's stellar play.

"We're right there. I think the series could easily be 2-1 us, obviously going into overtime twice. We're so close," Sanderson said Friday morning.

You can see through a wide lens why Sanderson would be outwardly confident. Sanderson holds a 60 percent share of the expected goals, a plus-six shot differential, while starting on offensive zone faceoffs exactly through one of his shifts at 5-on-5 via Natural Stat Trick. That's all well and good, and it extends to his primary assignments, Mitch Marner and <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/matthew-knies-tipped-simon-benoit-overtime-winner">Matthew Knies</a>, where he holds a 70 percent share of the expected goals in 26 minutes against the Maple Leafs' top line. In the key department, however: Sanderson holds a -2 goal differential and hasn't been on the ice for a single goal at 5-on-5, where the aggregate sum of the Senators' volume-based approach to shots hasn't worked well at all against a patient Leafs team.

https://twitter.com/ComingInHotSens/status/1915800946342326422

The numbers are a bit misleading too. Matthews, Marner and Knies have been excellent during this series, especially on the power play, but they're more engaged in puck battles than ever before. All three players have been excellent defensively, with critical shot blocks and pass breakups throughout the series. Marner has six points, while Matthews has five, entering Saturday's Game 4 and they look more confident than they've ever been during the postseason. It's showing up where it matters.

Sanderson alone can't win this series for the Senators, when Matthews is outplaying Brady Tkachuk, but that may be the least of the Senators' worries. Anthony Stolarz is pushing towards some way-too-early Conn Smythe Trophy consideration, clearly outshining Linus Ullmark. Toronto's defence corps are as resolute as ever, while number six defenceman <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/simon-benoit-game-inflection-point-toronto-maple-leafs-timely-hero-battle-of-ontario">Simon Benoit elevated his game</a> in late March and never looked back, <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/simon-benoit-game-inflection-point-toronto-maple-leafs-timely-hero-battle-of-ontario">emerging as an overtime hero</a> in consecutive games. And it should be this way, too. Toronto looks every bit the part of an experienced team under a head coach with championship pedigree, playing a north-south, defence-first style, firmly in the midst of its contention window.

Ottawa shouldn't be merely happy to be here, but it is getting a rude awakening as to what playoff hockey constitutes. Sanderson's superior analytics are only a fractional part of the equation, especially when the actual goals tilt toward the Leafs' stars.

This series very well could be over by Saturday night, and while the Senators are looking for inspiration from the 2004 Boston Red Sox — an inexact comparison to be sure, as that team boasted multiple Hall of Famers — they may come up short against a better team. Sanderson has every right to be confident in his own play, and of course, no one's expecting him to concede defeat, but the fact of the matter is that the Senators aren't close to the Maple Leafs, at least not yet, and this series may constitute what playoff hockey looks like for the future iterations of their team.
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Jake Sanderson may be winning his minutes, but the Senators are nowhere close to the Leafs

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