by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post
Goaltending is the great equalizer when the Toronto Maple Leafs are deep in minus money on home ice. The Maple Leafs are -180 favourites and the Winnipeg Jets are +160 underdogs with a 6.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Thursday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
A defeat against the Jets on Tuesday left the Maple Leafs with an 11-9 record in their last 20 home games as a -160 to -210 favorite at online sports betting sites. The OVER has hit in 12 of those matchups overall, with an OVER also occurring in seven of the nine Toronto defeats and an UNDER coming in during seven of the 11 wins. The Jets are 8-6 in their last 14 away games as an +140 to +180 underdog, with the total going OVER eight times. The total finished OVER in five of those eight Jets’ wins.
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Jets vs Maple Leafs | OddsShark Matchup Report
The Jets won 4-3 on Tuesday. The teams have split their last four meetings 2-2 in spite of Toronto’s edges in expected goals-for percentage, or xGF% (62.6), scoring-changes percentage (63.8) and high-danger chances share (73.6), per Natural Stat Trick. The Jets are two-for-10 on the power play in that span while the Maple Leafs are three-for-nine. (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)
The Jets are 16-8-1, and have been a tough out away from home as evidenced by a 17-10-3 record in their last 30 away games with one day of rest. The Mark Scheifele-Paul Stastny-Blake Wheeler and Pierre-Luc Dubois-Kyle Connor-Nikolaj Ehlers lines actually had subpar nights in terms of generating scoring chances on Tuesday, so upset-minded bettors will have to decide whether it is a positive that Winnipeg won without a big night from its top-end guys or if it was an anomaly. The Jets will have alterations on defense since Nathan Beaulieu (wrist) is now out for several weeks.
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Winnipeg ranks 24th in the 31-team NHL in shots-for percentage (47.8), 30th in xGF% (45.4) and 31st in high-danger chances share (42.1). The Jets are seventh in goal scoring (3.32 per game) and 13th in goals against (2.84). Their power play ranks 12th (24.3 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 22nd (76.2).
Connor Hellebuyck made 36 saves on Tuesday and saved 1.97 goals above expected (according to MoneyPuck) to keep Toronto at bay. The Vezina Trophy-winning goalie has a 12-7-1 record with a 2.75 goals-against average and .912 save percentage.
The Maple Leafs are 18-7-2 in spite of having lost three games in a row to the Vancouver Canucks and Jets, who respectively yield high-danger chances at the second-worst and worst rates in the NHL. The Auston Matthews-Joe Thornton-Mitch Marner first line is coming off of a game where it had tangible results to the tune of Matthews scoring two goals to end his five-game drought. The John Tavares-Alex Kerfoot-William Nylander line also earned an unreal 97.9 xGF% on Tuesday without scoring a goal, according to MoneyPuck. Still, Toronto contrived to lose. The Maple Leafs have also allowed four power-play goals on five attempts during the three-game skid.
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Toronto ranks 10th in shots-for percentage (51.2), eighth in xGF% (53.4) and sixth in high-danger chances share (53.7). The Maple Leafs are second in goal scoring (3.44 per game) and seventh in goals against (2.48). Their power play ranks first (31.7 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 21st (76.6).
Tuesday marked Frederik Andersen’s first regulation-time defeat against Winnipeg in 14 career outings, as the Toronto goaltender struggled with minus-1.97 goals saved above expected. One would expect Toronto to stick with Anderson, who is 12-5-2 with a 2.76 GAA and .903 save percentage.
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